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2018 November 17th Saturday

Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point (because all the mugs keep wanting to back them).
Did so on every trade today. But in the 14.45, I backed at 3.25, which was the highest point it had ever been.
Then a massive sudden lay spike, when I had to lay at 3.7 (which is a 9 tick loss). I did back again twice at 3.65 to gain 3 ticks profit. Made that 40p again in the next 2 races. So, recovered from a losing position, and turned it into a profitable day.

David

David

 

2018 November 16th Friday

Not many races at this time of the year. 2 only had 3 runners, which I don't like dealing with. Managed a profit today on 3 races by backing the favourites at a high point.
Could have had more, but 5 offered bets didn't match, as the market moved too quickly.

David

David

 

2018 November 15th Thursday

Another big losing day. Didn't do much in the first few races, 2p down, I can tolerate that.
But then the huge losses arrive again. In the 16.10, the favourite was getting backed down to 3.6 then reversing and drifting up to 3.75 or 3.8
It was doing this for several times. So, I thought the bottom of the range was determined at 3.6
When I decided to lay at 3.6, the market suddenly crashes down, and I took a 9 tick loss.
When it neared the crossover, it slowed down. I layed at 3.1 losing 2 ticks (just as well because it steamed well below the 3.0 crossover).
I layed twice at 2.86 gaining 4 ticks over the 2 trades. But overall, losing 74p. The 16.30 was good for me. Backing at 4.1 for 2 ticks. Backing again at 4.5 for 4 ticks. A 57p profit on a race is a good result with £5 stakes. Then a huge loss in the 17.00 The favourite drifted up to 2.48 and didn't want to go any further. I backed at 2.48 for 1 tick.
It dropped a few ticks. When it reached 2.46 I backed again, suddenly losing 5 ticks.
It came back down again, before drifting to 2.54 and not wanting to drift further. So I back.
Within a couple of seconds, it shot up to 2.74, so took a 10 tick loss. Why this happened is beyond my understanding.
Tried another trade losing 2 ticks (ok, fair enough).
The market dropped to 2.42 and hesitated. Often 2.4 acts as the bottom of the range.
This time, I layed. The market suddenly crashed down, making me lose 6 ticks.
So, whatever I tried, everything was going wrong. Lost 22 ticks altogether on this race for a massive loss of £1.02

This has put me well into the red for November (although I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so my losses are only a few pence a day, but still frustrated at the constant losing).
Even if I make a profit tomorrow, I know I won't get back the current months loss. I am a failure trader.

David

David

 

2018 November 14th Wednesday

I realise why I lost money yesterday. Last week was unusual in that the high stake traders weren't around, so there was more value to back the favourites.
I followed on by backing on Tuesday and lost. The traders were back this week in force. I know that by the way the markets behave.

Today, I lost 8p but regard it as successful. In the first race, I had a big loss of £1 The odds started out at 4.5 it drifted to 5.0 then hesitated (because not many people are willing to lay a favourite at high odds, due to the liability), and so I backed at 5.0 lost 3 ticks. Tried another 3 trades. Lost 10 ticks altogether in this race. Couldn't believe that no one was backing at that stage.

The trends in subsequent races behaved in their predictable way. Made a mixture of back and lay entries, depending on where the market was at the time.
8 wins later, I brought the initial loss from £1 down to 8p. So it is not so bad.
Could have been profitable because in the 15.20 at Ayr, I missed the opportunity to lay at 3.55 for 4 ticks (I estimate a profit of 28p).

The strike rate of 8 out 9 is more pleasing to me than losing 8p.

David

David

 

2018 November 13th Tuesday

After starting well, lost November's profits today. Before 3pm, it was better to back the favourites at the top of the range; was doing well as in profit by 39p.
In the 15.10 again I backed the favourite at the top. But the 3rd suddenly crashed down heavily (no indication that this would happen at all).
When that happens, the favourite will drift sharply. Took a 5 tick loss. Tried another 4 trades, losing another tick altogether. Similar happened in the 15.40 when I lost 54p. People mention to cut the losses, but it is difficult when the market suddenly move 5 ticks against you.

I rarely get 5 ticks for me, so the wins are always being outweighed by the losses.

David

David

 

2018 November 9th Friday

Haven't done much trading this week, as have been watching snooker. I did trade last Friday, and won 5 out 5 races: Traded this Friday as well. Found it difficult to read the markets, but managed a good profitable trade in 1 race: So, it covers some of the loss that I made in October. One thing that I have noticed since the clocks have gone back, is that the favourites aren't initially drifting as much as they did in the summer.
So, sometimes I decide to back instead of my preference to laying in the summer (still got to choose when the high or low points are).
So, not only have you got to learn how the markets behave, but how they behave in different seasons; no wonder trading is hard to master!

David

David

 

2018 October 29th Monday

Really feel like stopping doing this as always losing. Today, I lost another £1.68 I don't enjoy it any more, because I know that I'm going to have days with big losses, yet days with big wins never happens.

Unfortunately, this forum has no value to me either, because hardly anyone posts.
I thought everyone would be willing to share what techniques they are using, or even whether they are successful or not.
I have no comparisons to make, and so I will be stopping posting in this blog. Maybe I'll come back, if I do carry on trading and have learned to make a profit. At this moment, I have no confidence at all that will ever happen.

David

David

 

2018 October 26th Friday

Was in profit throughout October, but now lost over 10 weeks worth in one afternoon.

This week, the favourites have had a tendency to steam heavily; been making profits so far.

Then all of a sudden, the favourite in the 16.10 start drifting heavily after I backed it, losing 7 ticks from a sharp drift.
Then when it came back down, I layed 4 times, losing 3 ticks more.
It started with odds of 3.1 at 10 minutes before the off. The highest odds that I saw was at 5.0
Why did it drift so much?

In the 16.20, I decided to lay the 3rd horse 3 times. Losing a lot again, as it steamed heavily (it dropped from around 6.0 down to 4.8).

The 16.45 was pleasing, as I backed and layed 9 ticks lower. The last race, losing again to a favourite suddenly drifting, when there was no previous indication.

When no one is willing to lay any more, I assume that to be a resistance point, so I back. But then people start laying. I never understand why this happens? Typical pattern is win a few pence a day several times, then have a bad day losing several pounds.
Obviously losing in the long term with that. I'm beginning to think that I am not capable of being successful, because the profits on winning trades is insufficient to cover the losing ones.

David

David

 

2018 October 24th Wednesday

Had a good day. Normally, during the week, favourites have a tendency to initially drift, but there doesn't seem to be many layers this week.
Anyone know why this might be? I took advantage of that fact by backing the favourites at the right times. Could have had several more ticks, by placing more trades (but expecting more of a drift to happen made me wary of not entering the market). Also, could have gained 4 ticks instead of 1 a couple of times (if I had waited a second or two longer).

In the 16.35 at Fontwell, I offered a back bet at 3.25 It didn't match and the market crashed down to about 2.64
Therefore a missed opportunity, but at least I correctly anticipated when the correction occurred.

In the 16.55 at Newmarket, couldn't believe it when a spoofer layed 5k at odds of 4.4 - Madness to me, especially when it had already drifted to a fairly high point.

David

David

 

2018 October 23rd Tuesday

A case of keep calm and carry on. In the first 4 races, I had huge losses from placing several lay entry trades; everything went wrong. A loss of £1.47 Decided to enter with back bets in subsequent races. Had more success; so much so, that I turned the deficit in to a day profit of 11p

That meant I didn't make much money today, but had the pleasure of turning a big loss around.

Some would have walked away after losing big time (frustrations can easily kick in).
One must think long term, and ride the losses, as the profits will surely come sometime.

David

David

 

BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 2

The second day on Betdaq was quite similar to the first one. Lots of bets in limbo. I don't know if that is a problem/bug of the software (both Geeks Toy and Bet Angel do this) or Betdaq API. I think it's a problem of Betdaq API. My internet connection is okay and I tried to trade on Betfair to compare it. This is a major problem limiting my trading experience on Betdaq right now. On the following screen is my API settings manager - I lowered some numbers in order to be sure I won't be blacklisted: My API settings  Generally, I found some Betdaq markets to be nice and liquid. On the other hand, there are races which are not that liquid and trading them using my scalping style is a pain. I need to be more selective. I would say half of the races are quite okay for trading, however, not all of them are ideal for my style of trading. I am a scalper and I like to enter & exit the market very often, while doing many scratches. There is a liquidity in these markets but bets are not filled very quickly. Betdaq prices just copy the move from Betfair - the core of the market, the engine - it's still on Betfair.  Betdaq is definitely an excellent choice for traditional bettors or swing traders. For me, it's little bit more complicated but not impossible. I like trading on prices below 4.0 on Betdaq. It seems like there are more opportunities for me probably because horses with lower prices are considered to be favourites and people bet more on them. I have made a short video from my trading, showing some bets in limbo as well.  Bet in limbo.mp4 You can see my screen setup for Betdaq - I use a tick graph because the default Betdaq graph is not available in the software. I also have the betting exchange website opened in case of emergency. Profit & Loss statement: My bank: Stats: 14 races traded 4 losing trades 71.4 % strike rate My strike rate is nice, but those bloody bets in limbo are accountable for some of these losses. The biggest losing trade was in Listowel where a late withdrawal happened. The market was suspended for quite some time before Betdaq removed the runner. In the meantime, the market turned into in-play. And exiting in-play on Betdaq is a nightmare  in-play market on Betdaq is a ghost town with some bots.  Bet in limbo.wmv

Tomas

Tomas

BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 1

I have started with the challenge today. I had no expectations or goals, I just wanted to observe how markets behave on Betdaq. As mentioned in my previous post, I am not connected to Betfair at all. I want to see if I can recognize trading patterns solely by using Betdaq. The short answer is yes - I can see some opportunities. However, I have also discovered few hurdles along the way. Betdaq API The first issue is the Betdaq API. It's not as advanced as Betfair API. You can't get quick streaming prices from Betdaq and if you refresh too often, you can be blacklisted. Then, you won't be allowed to place bets via API. Until I understood what's going on, it caused me several losing trades. It's a very good idea to have Betdaq website opened when trading. I have used the cash out button on their website many times today. The other thing with Betdaq API (or the software itself?) is that sometimes, bets are sort of "stuck in limbo". I have made two screenshots, both from Bet Angel & Geeks Toy to show you that it was happening in both of them: On the second Ladder, you can see my £10 Back bet @3.85. It should be matched but the software doesn't show that. It caused me some confusion until I figured out what to do. Another case - in the first Ladder, you can see that I do have an open position. However, Betdaq website shows that my position is hedged. Which is true? Betdaq website. In the software, it sometimes freezes like this and I had to check my position on the website. It happened in both Bet Angel & Geeks Toy several times during the day. Bet in limbo - it seems like an API call is lost for 18 seconds. That's true, but this particular API call should place my Back bet and close my position in the market. This is not an ideal situation because I had to manually submit another Back bet and wait if the lost bet will go through. It went through after a while and I had an open position again. As you can see, all of that happened after the official start of the race. Quite risky situation and I don't know how to avoid it. It only happened once today. Again - software is showing me an open position in the market but the website tells me quite opposite. Until I discovered what is happening in the market, I lost some money.  So that's it - I wasn't able to rely on the trading software 100% of the time. That is quite disappointing but I think I can work with that. The important fact is to understand that Betdaq website is the single source of truth about my position. In the case of emergency, I have to check the website and close my position there.  Other than that, I was quite happy with Betdaq. Since I last traded there, the liquidity has definitely improved. I am curious how the markets will look like during the week, Saturdays are always stronger... My Results: I started with £50 in my account: And I made this result: Current Bank: Stats: Markets traded: 36 Losing trades: 15 Strike rate: 58.3% I think there is a big room for improvement of these results because many of the losing trades were caused by misbehaving software. It's just a start of a small adventure and exploring something new. Does anyone have some experience with trading on Betdaq?  

Tomas

Tomas

BETDAQ Trading Challenge

Hi there, it's almost a year since I started this challenge and now, I would like to do a little experiment with BETDAQ. Why experiment? Well, because I have never been trading on Betdaq regularly. I only used Betdaq form time to time during the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot. I really don't know if I can make money there because my plan is to only be connected to Betdaq exchange during the trading. In other words, I don't want to watch how the market is doing on Betfair. I would like to know if it is possible to trade just by watching the price action (that is something I was doing on Betfair for more than a decade). I never watched fundamentals like horses, jockeys, their form/fitness or weather on the track. I only observed the demand & supply in the trading software and I made my trading decisions when I recognized some pattern.  The other argument to watch only Betdaq is that I have always been a scalper. A scalper is someone who does quick decisions and reacts to small market movements most of the time. I believe there is not enough time for me to watch one exchange and put orders on the second one. I tried this in the past and it only caused me a headache  Also, arbitrage seems to be already made by automated bots and there is not enough room for a manual trader to arb between Betdaq and Betfair. Bots are almost always quicker and they are probably deployed on a server close to the Betdaq servers to minimize latency. This is going to be a small adventure (I will probably start tomorrow) because I will have to adapt on much lower liquidity. By the way, I have made a post about liquidity on Betdaq: I'm Supporting Betdaq As you may know, I don't really like Betfair because of their monopoly practices. I have decided, purely on my own, to support Betdaq on this website. If you don't have a Betdaq account, you can open it using my link or by clicking on any of the Betdaq banners on the website (I will receive a small commission if you do so).  Real-Time Trading Chat on WowApp I've opened a real-time trading group chat in my favorite WowApp messenger. If you want to join, you have to use this link (or click any of the banners on this website). Some people were interested about what am I doing when I don't trade much anymore. WowApp is one of the things I'm quite heavily invested in. It's also the only place where you can connect with me in real-time.  If you have any questions, ask me in the comments!

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 9th Thursday

After losing money last week, when the Goodwood Festival had unpredictable markets, the markets this week, I have found to be back to normal. Mainly taking 1 tick per race (could have had a few each time, but a lack of confidence stopped me from holding an open trade for too long). The best bit is not a single loss in 3 days. That meant that I anticipated the direction correctly every time.
Wednesday had a few annoying instances where I offered a lay bet which failed to match before the market drifted! So, the profit could have been more still. Thursday went well. One obvious thing that I remember was being fooled by a spoofer. The favourite got backed down, and I could have layed at 2.6
The spoofer had offered 2k as a back at 2.62 It seemed genuine money to me, but it vanished a few moments later, for the market to drift a few ticks. Last Autumn, I was starting to make progress by having regular profitable days. @Tomas mentioned a few times that my strike rate was good.
I've used the same technique this week, and got a strike rate of 100% Just have to see if I can remember it all the time!

David

David

Someone Else Trying To Delete My YouTube Channel?

After publishing my previous blog post where I am seriously concerned about the YouTube censorship, I received several messages, public and private, that the true reason may be somewhere else. I didn't expect such a scenario. @David and @getintheir publicly stated their suspicion about someone trying to flag my content on YouTube in order to remove it. After their comments, I realized that this could really happen. Then, I received a few personal messages and a personal call from well respected sources saying practically the same thing. This isn't a coincidence and I have to seriously deal with a possibility that there is some wretch / worm / a poor fellow amongst us. The reason / motive for such an immoral behavior could be easy - someone selling similar content could feel threatened because my videos just reveal everything what I've learned in my trading career for free. As a result, I decided to start a... Hunting Season If there really is someone doing this stuff, let's find that person and expose the truth. I believe more than 1 person had to be involved in such a practice. In order to flag and automatically remove my content from YouTube, more people had to be coordinated together. They could not operate from one IP address. Who could do such a thing? Any ideas? I will need your help in order to achieve justice.

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 3rd Friday

Friday was a really bad day for me. After 11 races, my strike rate was 8 wins and 3 losses for an overall loss of 17p. Not so bad, but still not profitable.

I then traded a few more races and the problems started. Backed one favourite at 3.05 (when it was always reversing at the crossover several times). There was a sudden late drift and I lost 6 ticks.

The last traded race, the 2nd horse was ranging between 8.0 and 9.0 for several minutes; could have backed at 9.0 and layed at 8.2 a few times.
The favourite was a heavy one at 1.6, and so expected the 2nd to drift out again. But when I layed it at 8.2, there was a lot of sudden backing, and i had to take a 10 tick loss.
There was no sign of this before, so why this horse had a big steam, I don't know (the favourite odds didn't move much to compensate, so couldn't understand the reason).

Why these sudden change in trends happen is something I don't understand; why would people suddenly decide to back a 7/1 horse?
I watch the markets for a while to see if I can recognise any range. I try to exit with a 2 to 3 tick loss, but sometimes the move is just too fast.

Ended up losing £2.55 for the day.

That led my mind not to be in a good state. The only good thing is that I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so can easily afford to write off the losses.
But constant losing is just tiresome. After 18 months, I still can't get the hang of this.

David

David

My statement & the evidence about YouTube censorship

Let's make a short summary of what happened between me & YouTube: I have decided to open up my knowledge by making my course free & open source. I have made all of my YouTube videos public and available for all. Before, it was only available to those who bought my course. During that time, I had to change all links in description below my YouTube videos so they could point to the new location of the course. For the new links, I used the Bit.Ly shortener because my new links were too long. My suspicion: That behavior was probably picked up by YouTube automated algorithms and on June 25th, 2018 they gave me 2 warning points without any warning: The day after a final shot was made: So I made a quick announcement here on the forums: "As many of you have seen, my YouTube channel is no longer active. YouTube has censored it. I believe many of you who have seen my videos wonder what is the problem? Actually, I believe it is a combination of a few things: Last week, I made all of my videos available to watch for free. Those videos were previously hidden on YouTube. Just people who bought my e-book could see them. At the same time, I changed the long URLs below those videos to the short (bit.ly) version. Those URLs were pointing to my website as before. I just wanted them to be short because pointing to the URL "https://sportstradingexposed.com/forum/forum/41-sports-trading-exposed-free-open-source-online-course/" looks terrible in my eyes. I changed my profile picture. All of these together were probably picked up by YouTube automated algorithms which flagged me as a spammer (this is my version). Solution: Give me some time. I have to do some research and choose the best alternative. I no longer believe in YouTube. Actually, I don't believe in any of those super rich corporations like Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. They don't work to our best interest. Their only interest is a profit. I will re-upload all of these videos as soon as possible. In the meantime, feel free to enjoy my free & open source online course on this URL > http://bit.ly/2MjjhJk Tomas" And I have sent an appeal to YouTube. This is the text of my appeal: "I have had many private videos on my channel because they were only available to my customers who did buy my e-book. However, I decided to make all of my videos public all at once because I have made my product free and open source (I decided to not sell it anymore). At the same time, I was changing the description of all of those videos - because the nature of my product changed rapidly, from a paid one to a free & open source one. So, I was changing URLs in the description below each of my video. My free & open source product is available on the following URL > https://sportstradingexposed.com/forum/forum/41-sports-trading-exposed-free-open-source-online-course/. Because the URL is very long, I decided to use bit.ly shortener to make it shorter. That is all I did on my channel, there was no malicious or dishonest activity. Honestly, many of my followers were wondering why was my channel closed down. I believe someone will read this description and re-activate my channel again. Thanks" I received, probably, an automated answer: "Hello, We have received your account appeal and will get back to you as soon as possible. Sincerely,
The YouTube Team" And finally, the latest answer from YouTube. I can only wonder if this is an automated as well: "Hello, Thank you for your account suspension appeal. We have decided to keep your account suspended based on our Community Guidelines and Terms of Service. Please visit http://www.youtube.com/t/community_guidelines for more information. Please do not respond to this email. Replies to this email will not be processed. Please refer to our Help Center for more information. Sincerely,
The YouTube Team" This is how it looks when you visit my channel now Really?!! There is no personal contact in the e-mail. Very probably, I was just dealing with a machine and this machine took me a chance to be connected with others. I have lost a chance to reach people and people have lost an opportunity to find my content & website. I did nothing wrong, there is lots of trading videos on YouTube. And actually, I often get a very good feedback from people who watched my videos. So, why should I be punished? Tell me what you think!

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 1st Wednesday

Is anyone trading the Goodwood Festival? I am finding that the favourites are getting backed more than they normally do in an average week (not just at Goodwood, but at other meetings as well).

I was busy today with other activities, but managed 4 races.
All scratch trades saved me from having any losses.
2 wins means that I have earned more today than the whole of July.

Difficult to describe, but there is value in backing the favourite at a certain time, and value in laying the favourite at a certain time.
I can't tell you exact times in minutes before the off, but a regular pattern seems common this week.

David

David

 

2018 July 27th Friday

@Tomas How is it possible to gain consistency? Here is Thursday's results, where I had a good day, with a strike rate of 8/9. Won 58p
I was looking for stable markets and laying at the bottom of the range. Not necessarily the favourite, but on runners that had not shown any volatility. On Friday, I more than wiped out this profit, by losing 60p. The worst result was in the 16.20 Thirsk; the first kept wanting to get backed, and the second kept drifting from 4.1
Such a scenario happened several times, and so I thought I recognised that the second was never going to break the 4.0 crossover.
There was plenty of money being offered as a lay at 4.0, so I layed in front of that at 4.1 thinking I would be safe. Only looking for 1 tick.
As soon as I layed, the support money at 4.0 vanished quickly (not a spoof, just that a lot of backing suddenly happened). There was a massive drift on the favourite going from a low of 3.25 to a high of 4.7, which is what made the second steam down. I took a 4 tick loss, which doubled my loss for the day.

There was no sign of such a quick change in the market happening prior to this. Is that just bad luck, or did I trade wrong?

David

David

 

2018 July 21st Saturday

I haven't been trading much on Saturdays at all, so spent most of today just watching the markets (that is good practice in itself if you can analyse how markets typically react). Avoiding the ITV races (which may drift a bit), it is generally better to back the favourites, because on Saturdays, lots of casual punters think they can win by betting on a horse favourite.
This can create many downward trends. The hard part is judging the timing of when to enter. I only traded 4 races, due to a lack of confidence, but have still earned a profit of 29p. Learned a lot today.

David

David

 

2018 July 18th Wednesday

Made a profit, after a disappointing start. In the 14.30, I layed the favourite at 1.84 backing at 1.87 A successful 3 tick profit. 8p up
After losing 7 ticks in the 14.50 losing 14p, I checked my Betfair account expecting to be 6p down overall.

Took me a while to figure out why 2 trades were recorded instead of 3. The favourite in the 14.30 was void; so I missed out on hard earned profit!
I am thinking, why didn't my losing race get void instead? Still, with small stakes, being a few pence up for the day is a positive thing.

David

David

 

2018 July 17th Tuesday

I haven't done much trading in the last month. I come from a matched betting background, which I am still involved with.
Bookmakers were giving away a load of offers during the World Cup football that kept me busy.
I've earned a profit of almost £2,500 from that, which can go towards my trading bank. I'm not successful at horse trading. Today, I started with a loss, but 3 future profitable trades meant I ended the day at break even.
Had 2 scratch trades, where I cancelled too early (they would have made profit if I waited a bit longer). A 3rd scratch saved a loss.
I suppose it is good not to lose on any day, because my bank is preserved and I can try again tomorrow.

David

David

Why Free & Open Source?

On June 19th 2018, I opened all of my trading knowledge to the public. Since then, I've received a few questions about the reason & my motivation why. Let me briefly explain: I believe in cooperation rather than competition. I believe that open collaboration means more innovation for all in a spirit of "rising tide lifts all boats". My life direction goes in another way than Betfair trading and I didn't have much time & need to trade in the last 12 months. Yet I am still able to trade and all of my techniques are working. I know that because I used them for the last few days Also, I faced many dishonest attempts to re-sell my e-book on eBay, re-send it via email lists, etc. And I don't have the time to fight it. And because in general, I don't like being secretive and I just like to honestly help & educate others (if they want), I decided to make it available for all. What's next? Honestly - I don't know. I would like to see some genuine and meaningful feedback from the community or someone who decided to share his or her knowledge as well. But who knows what will happen? Yeah, only God knows...

Tomas

Tomas


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    • Hi David,

      You are not a failure trader! You only fail at something when you give up. An exercise for you:

      The markets are more volatile than they used to be and this lends itself to swing trading opportunities. For your next session, try observing the following markets:

      1) No more than 6 runners
      2) The favourite is priced under 3.0

      When you watch this markets, pay attention to how one horse's price movement affects the other. Also, look at resistance and support points on the graph prior to the last 10 minutes. On Saturday 1st December there are 5 races that meet this criteria and I can tell you that at least one of these races will result in a decent move which, if you are on the right side of, you will pick up a few ticks. Chris



       
    • Reading anything you write not make you think about changing the way you trade? "the favourite was getting BACKED down to 3.6" coming down all the way to 2.86 if not lower and you are trying to LAY it each trade!? Would it not of been much easier just to back? As you said yourself, it was getting backed. "17.00 The favourite DRIFTED up to 2.48" going up to 2.74 and higher? and you keep trying to back it!? its drifting as you said. Why are you trying to catch a falling knife/ jump in front of the train when you can get on-board instead.   Also these sort of statements you make "Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point" are just crazy imo. You can not go into a market and think, well its a Saturday and its the fav I better back it. Or its a Tuesday i better lay the second fav at the bottom of the range. The sweeping assumptions are dangerous. If the markets were as easy as that you would be loaded by now. I am not trying to be mean and please do not take what i say as me digging at you, i am just trying to help in my own way
    • My advice maybe a little bit unusual. It's been quite some time since you started trading, that means you know very well how to operate the software, you probably know different emergency situations and how to act & react when they happen. You know that it makes no sense to risk more than you can afford to lose. Right now you probably know every technical aspect of trading yet you still struggle to achieve long term profit and to go up in the game. Try something different than you are already doing right now. You need to be "in the zone" - that is a kind of situation when you feel like you have a trance. There is only you and the market. You feel the market as a living organism and you feel every beat of it. Have you ever felt like this? From my own experience, I have had just a few moments in my trading career which really meant I was able step up and jump to another level of trading. The first one was when I realized I can really make some money on this. It took me a few months (on greyhounds). The second one was when I earned £100 in a day for the first time. The third one was £1,000 in a day. The last one was £1,000 in a one race. Once I understood any of these milestones is possible, I was able to repeat them regularly. I want you to crack the first step, to get you into a profit. You obviously need to change something and my inner feeling is that you need to be more pro-active in the market. You need to be the one who does the decision and takes the position first. Market is often a slow & fat guy, yet very powerful. It's really hard to describe it but there is a little room / space for the profit. Market always follows that space but when it does, it creates another space. You need to get into a situation when you are the one who is on top of everything. That requires to make quick and maybe risky decisions but you need to stand up and do it, you need to get out of the crowd. Crowd will never bring you to the top. 
    • That may be because of the season change. Summer is Flat, winter is Hurdle and early autumn is a transition between the two.  
    • Hi David, Don't be too hard on yourself - as I posted on another thread recently, a professional trader once suggested it takes 3 years to master the market cycles

      I'm certainly no expert but I would suggest that maybe you are cutting your winning positions too soon. Also, if you have a losing trade, it's sometimes useful to just step away from your desk - I say this, as I noticed you had 2 losing trades back to back in the P&L above.

      What I would say, is that going through your blogs, you are getting more winners than losers so you must be doing something right.

      Keep going my friend and you will get there in the end!

      Chris
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