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BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 2

The second day on Betdaq was quite similar to the first one. Lots of bets in limbo. I don't know if that is a problem/bug of the software (both Geeks Toy and Bet Angel do this) or Betdaq API. I think it's a problem of Betdaq API. My internet connection is okay and I tried to trade on Betfair to compare it. This is a major problem limiting my trading experience on Betdaq right now. On the following screen is my API settings manager - I lowered some numbers in order to be sure I won't be blacklisted: My API settings  Generally, I found some Betdaq markets to be nice and liquid. On the other hand, there are races which are not that liquid and trading them using my scalping style is a pain. I need to be more selective. I would say half of the races are quite okay for trading, however, not all of them are ideal for my style of trading. I am a scalper and I like to enter & exit the market very often, while doing many scratches. There is a liquidity in these markets but bets are not filled very quickly. Betdaq prices just copy the move from Betfair - the core of the market, the engine - it's still on Betfair.  Betdaq is definitely an excellent choice for traditional bettors or swing traders. For me, it's little bit more complicated but not impossible. I like trading on prices below 4.0 on Betdaq. It seems like there are more opportunities for me probably because horses with lower prices are considered to be favourites and people bet more on them. I have made a short video from my trading, showing some bets in limbo as well.  Bet in limbo.mp4 You can see my screen setup for Betdaq - I use a tick graph because the default Betdaq graph is not available in the software. I also have the betting exchange website opened in case of emergency. Profit & Loss statement: My bank: Stats: 14 races traded 4 losing trades 71.4 % strike rate My strike rate is nice, but those bloody bets in limbo are accountable for some of these losses. The biggest losing trade was in Listowel where a late withdrawal happened. The market was suspended for quite some time before Betdaq removed the runner. In the meantime, the market turned into in-play. And exiting in-play on Betdaq is a nightmare  in-play market on Betdaq is a ghost town with some bots.  Bet in limbo.wmv

Tomas

Tomas

BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 1

I have started with the challenge today. I had no expectations or goals, I just wanted to observe how markets behave on Betdaq. As mentioned in my previous post, I am not connected to Betfair at all. I want to see if I can recognize trading patterns solely by using Betdaq. The short answer is yes - I can see some opportunities. However, I have also discovered few hurdles along the way. Betdaq API The first issue is the Betdaq API. It's not as advanced as Betfair API. You can't get quick streaming prices from Betdaq and if you refresh too often, you can be blacklisted. Then, you won't be allowed to place bets via API. Until I understood what's going on, it caused me several losing trades. It's a very good idea to have Betdaq website opened when trading. I have used the cash out button on their website many times today. The other thing with Betdaq API (or the software itself?) is that sometimes, bets are sort of "stuck in limbo". I have made two screenshots, both from Bet Angel & Geeks Toy to show you that it was happening in both of them: On the second Ladder, you can see my £10 Back bet @3.85. It should be matched but the software doesn't show that. It caused me some confusion until I figured out what to do. Another case - in the first Ladder, you can see that I do have an open position. However, Betdaq website shows that my position is hedged. Which is true? Betdaq website. In the software, it sometimes freezes like this and I had to check my position on the website. It happened in both Bet Angel & Geeks Toy several times during the day. Bet in limbo - it seems like an API call is lost for 18 seconds. That's true, but this particular API call should place my Back bet and close my position in the market. This is not an ideal situation because I had to manually submit another Back bet and wait if the lost bet will go through. It went through after a while and I had an open position again. As you can see, all of that happened after the official start of the race. Quite risky situation and I don't know how to avoid it. It only happened once today. Again - software is showing me an open position in the market but the website tells me quite opposite. Until I discovered what is happening in the market, I lost some money.  So that's it - I wasn't able to rely on the trading software 100% of the time. That is quite disappointing but I think I can work with that. The important fact is to understand that Betdaq website is the single source of truth about my position. In the case of emergency, I have to check the website and close my position there.  Other than that, I was quite happy with Betdaq. Since I last traded there, the liquidity has definitely improved. I am curious how the markets will look like during the week, Saturdays are always stronger... My Results: I started with £50 in my account: And I made this result: Current Bank: Stats: Markets traded: 36 Losing trades: 15 Strike rate: 58.3% I think there is a big room for improvement of these results because many of the losing trades were caused by misbehaving software. It's just a start of a small adventure and exploring something new. Does anyone have some experience with trading on Betdaq?  

Tomas

Tomas

BETDAQ Trading Challenge

Hi there, it's almost a year since I started this challenge and now, I would like to do a little experiment with BETDAQ. Why experiment? Well, because I have never been trading on Betdaq regularly. I only used Betdaq form time to time during the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot. I really don't know if I can make money there because my plan is to only be connected to Betdaq exchange during the trading. In other words, I don't want to watch how the market is doing on Betfair. I would like to know if it is possible to trade just by watching the price action (that is something I was doing on Betfair for more than a decade). I never watched fundamentals like horses, jockeys, their form/fitness or weather on the track. I only observed the demand & supply in the trading software and I made my trading decisions when I recognized some pattern.  The other argument to watch only Betdaq is that I have always been a scalper. A scalper is someone who does quick decisions and reacts to small market movements most of the time. I believe there is not enough time for me to watch one exchange and put orders on the second one. I tried this in the past and it only caused me a headache  Also, arbitrage seems to be already made by automated bots and there is not enough room for a manual trader to arb between Betdaq and Betfair. Bots are almost always quicker and they are probably deployed on a server close to the Betdaq servers to minimize latency. This is going to be a small adventure (I will probably start tomorrow) because I will have to adapt on much lower liquidity. By the way, I have made a post about liquidity on Betdaq: I'm Supporting Betdaq As you may know, I don't really like Betfair because of their monopoly practices. I have decided, purely on my own, to support Betdaq on this website. If you don't have a Betdaq account, you can open it using my link or by clicking on any of the Betdaq banners on the website (I will receive a small commission if you do so).  Real-Time Trading Chat on WowApp I've opened a real-time trading group chat in my favorite WowApp messenger. If you want to join, you have to use this link (or click any of the banners on this website). Some people were interested about what am I doing when I don't trade much anymore. WowApp is one of the things I'm quite heavily invested in. It's also the only place where you can connect with me in real-time.  If you have any questions, ask me in the comments!

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 9th Thursday

After losing money last week, when the Goodwood Festival had unpredictable markets, the markets this week, I have found to be back to normal. Mainly taking 1 tick per race (could have had a few each time, but a lack of confidence stopped me from holding an open trade for too long). The best bit is not a single loss in 3 days. That meant that I anticipated the direction correctly every time.
Wednesday had a few annoying instances where I offered a lay bet which failed to match before the market drifted! So, the profit could have been more still. Thursday went well. One obvious thing that I remember was being fooled by a spoofer. The favourite got backed down, and I could have layed at 2.6
The spoofer had offered 2k as a back at 2.62 It seemed genuine money to me, but it vanished a few moments later, for the market to drift a few ticks. Last Autumn, I was starting to make progress by having regular profitable days. @Tomas mentioned a few times that my strike rate was good.
I've used the same technique this week, and got a strike rate of 100% Just have to see if I can remember it all the time!

David

David

Someone Else Trying To Delete My YouTube Channel?

After publishing my previous blog post where I am seriously concerned about the YouTube censorship, I received several messages, public and private, that the true reason may be somewhere else. I didn't expect such a scenario. @David and @getintheir publicly stated their suspicion about someone trying to flag my content on YouTube in order to remove it. After their comments, I realized that this could really happen. Then, I received a few personal messages and a personal call from well respected sources saying practically the same thing. This isn't a coincidence and I have to seriously deal with a possibility that there is some wretch / worm / a poor fellow amongst us. The reason / motive for such an immoral behavior could be easy - someone selling similar content could feel threatened because my videos just reveal everything what I've learned in my trading career for free. As a result, I decided to start a... Hunting Season If there really is someone doing this stuff, let's find that person and expose the truth. I believe more than 1 person had to be involved in such a practice. In order to flag and automatically remove my content from YouTube, more people had to be coordinated together. They could not operate from one IP address. Who could do such a thing? Any ideas? I will need your help in order to achieve justice.

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 3rd Friday

Friday was a really bad day for me. After 11 races, my strike rate was 8 wins and 3 losses for an overall loss of 17p. Not so bad, but still not profitable.

I then traded a few more races and the problems started. Backed one favourite at 3.05 (when it was always reversing at the crossover several times). There was a sudden late drift and I lost 6 ticks.

The last traded race, the 2nd horse was ranging between 8.0 and 9.0 for several minutes; could have backed at 9.0 and layed at 8.2 a few times.
The favourite was a heavy one at 1.6, and so expected the 2nd to drift out again. But when I layed it at 8.2, there was a lot of sudden backing, and i had to take a 10 tick loss.
There was no sign of this before, so why this horse had a big steam, I don't know (the favourite odds didn't move much to compensate, so couldn't understand the reason).

Why these sudden change in trends happen is something I don't understand; why would people suddenly decide to back a 7/1 horse?
I watch the markets for a while to see if I can recognise any range. I try to exit with a 2 to 3 tick loss, but sometimes the move is just too fast.

Ended up losing £2.55 for the day.

That led my mind not to be in a good state. The only good thing is that I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so can easily afford to write off the losses.
But constant losing is just tiresome. After 18 months, I still can't get the hang of this.

David

David

My statement & the evidence about YouTube censorship

Let's make a short summary of what happened between me & YouTube: I have decided to open up my knowledge by making my course free & open source. I have made all of my YouTube videos public and available for all. Before, it was only available to those who bought my course. During that time, I had to change all links in description below my YouTube videos so they could point to the new location of the course. For the new links, I used the Bit.Ly shortener because my new links were too long. My suspicion: That behavior was probably picked up by YouTube automated algorithms and on June 25th, 2018 they gave me 2 warning points without any warning: The day after a final shot was made: So I made a quick announcement here on the forums: "As many of you have seen, my YouTube channel is no longer active. YouTube has censored it. I believe many of you who have seen my videos wonder what is the problem? Actually, I believe it is a combination of a few things: Last week, I made all of my videos available to watch for free. Those videos were previously hidden on YouTube. Just people who bought my e-book could see them. At the same time, I changed the long URLs below those videos to the short (bit.ly) version. Those URLs were pointing to my website as before. I just wanted them to be short because pointing to the URL "https://sportstradingexposed.com/forum/forum/41-sports-trading-exposed-free-open-source-online-course/" looks terrible in my eyes. I changed my profile picture. All of these together were probably picked up by YouTube automated algorithms which flagged me as a spammer (this is my version). Solution: Give me some time. I have to do some research and choose the best alternative. I no longer believe in YouTube. Actually, I don't believe in any of those super rich corporations like Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. They don't work to our best interest. Their only interest is a profit. I will re-upload all of these videos as soon as possible. In the meantime, feel free to enjoy my free & open source online course on this URL > http://bit.ly/2MjjhJk Tomas" And I have sent an appeal to YouTube. This is the text of my appeal: "I have had many private videos on my channel because they were only available to my customers who did buy my e-book. However, I decided to make all of my videos public all at once because I have made my product free and open source (I decided to not sell it anymore). At the same time, I was changing the description of all of those videos - because the nature of my product changed rapidly, from a paid one to a free & open source one. So, I was changing URLs in the description below each of my video. My free & open source product is available on the following URL > https://sportstradingexposed.com/forum/forum/41-sports-trading-exposed-free-open-source-online-course/. Because the URL is very long, I decided to use bit.ly shortener to make it shorter. That is all I did on my channel, there was no malicious or dishonest activity. Honestly, many of my followers were wondering why was my channel closed down. I believe someone will read this description and re-activate my channel again. Thanks" I received, probably, an automated answer: "Hello, We have received your account appeal and will get back to you as soon as possible. Sincerely,
The YouTube Team" And finally, the latest answer from YouTube. I can only wonder if this is an automated as well: "Hello, Thank you for your account suspension appeal. We have decided to keep your account suspended based on our Community Guidelines and Terms of Service. Please visit http://www.youtube.com/t/community_guidelines for more information. Please do not respond to this email. Replies to this email will not be processed. Please refer to our Help Center for more information. Sincerely,
The YouTube Team" This is how it looks when you visit my channel now Really?!! There is no personal contact in the e-mail. Very probably, I was just dealing with a machine and this machine took me a chance to be connected with others. I have lost a chance to reach people and people have lost an opportunity to find my content & website. I did nothing wrong, there is lots of trading videos on YouTube. And actually, I often get a very good feedback from people who watched my videos. So, why should I be punished? Tell me what you think!

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 August 1st Wednesday

Is anyone trading the Goodwood Festival? I am finding that the favourites are getting backed more than they normally do in an average week (not just at Goodwood, but at other meetings as well).

I was busy today with other activities, but managed 4 races.
All scratch trades saved me from having any losses.
2 wins means that I have earned more today than the whole of July.

Difficult to describe, but there is value in backing the favourite at a certain time, and value in laying the favourite at a certain time.
I can't tell you exact times in minutes before the off, but a regular pattern seems common this week.

David

David

 

2018 July 27th Friday

@Tomas How is it possible to gain consistency? Here is Thursday's results, where I had a good day, with a strike rate of 8/9. Won 58p
I was looking for stable markets and laying at the bottom of the range. Not necessarily the favourite, but on runners that had not shown any volatility. On Friday, I more than wiped out this profit, by losing 60p. The worst result was in the 16.20 Thirsk; the first kept wanting to get backed, and the second kept drifting from 4.1
Such a scenario happened several times, and so I thought I recognised that the second was never going to break the 4.0 crossover.
There was plenty of money being offered as a lay at 4.0, so I layed in front of that at 4.1 thinking I would be safe. Only looking for 1 tick.
As soon as I layed, the support money at 4.0 vanished quickly (not a spoof, just that a lot of backing suddenly happened). There was a massive drift on the favourite going from a low of 3.25 to a high of 4.7, which is what made the second steam down. I took a 4 tick loss, which doubled my loss for the day.

There was no sign of such a quick change in the market happening prior to this. Is that just bad luck, or did I trade wrong?

David

David

 

2018 July 21st Saturday

I haven't been trading much on Saturdays at all, so spent most of today just watching the markets (that is good practice in itself if you can analyse how markets typically react). Avoiding the ITV races (which may drift a bit), it is generally better to back the favourites, because on Saturdays, lots of casual punters think they can win by betting on a horse favourite.
This can create many downward trends. The hard part is judging the timing of when to enter. I only traded 4 races, due to a lack of confidence, but have still earned a profit of 29p. Learned a lot today.

David

David

 

2018 July 18th Wednesday

Made a profit, after a disappointing start. In the 14.30, I layed the favourite at 1.84 backing at 1.87 A successful 3 tick profit. 8p up
After losing 7 ticks in the 14.50 losing 14p, I checked my Betfair account expecting to be 6p down overall.

Took me a while to figure out why 2 trades were recorded instead of 3. The favourite in the 14.30 was void; so I missed out on hard earned profit!
I am thinking, why didn't my losing race get void instead? Still, with small stakes, being a few pence up for the day is a positive thing.

David

David

 

2018 July 17th Tuesday

I haven't done much trading in the last month. I come from a matched betting background, which I am still involved with.
Bookmakers were giving away a load of offers during the World Cup football that kept me busy.
I've earned a profit of almost £2,500 from that, which can go towards my trading bank. I'm not successful at horse trading. Today, I started with a loss, but 3 future profitable trades meant I ended the day at break even.
Had 2 scratch trades, where I cancelled too early (they would have made profit if I waited a bit longer). A 3rd scratch saved a loss.
I suppose it is good not to lose on any day, because my bank is preserved and I can try again tomorrow.

David

David

Why Free & Open Source?

On June 19th 2018, I opened all of my trading knowledge to the public. Since then, I've received a few questions about the reason & my motivation why. Let me briefly explain: I believe in cooperation rather than competition. I believe that open collaboration means more innovation for all in a spirit of "rising tide lifts all boats". My life direction goes in another way than Betfair trading and I didn't have much time & need to trade in the last 12 months. Yet I am still able to trade and all of my techniques are working. I know that because I used them for the last few days Also, I faced many dishonest attempts to re-sell my e-book on eBay, re-send it via email lists, etc. And I don't have the time to fight it. And because in general, I don't like being secretive and I just like to honestly help & educate others (if they want), I decided to make it available for all. What's next? Honestly - I don't know. I would like to see some genuine and meaningful feedback from the community or someone who decided to share his or her knowledge as well. But who knows what will happen? Yeah, only God knows...

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 May 24th Thursday

Started off well with a few ticks profit.
In the 3rd race, I layed the fave a few times at around the 2.5 odds expecting a low odds horse to drift. Surprised that it kept getting backed.
Hence the big loss of 65p. Despite that, every attempted trade was profitable, but was still hard to judge the entry point. One definitely has to concentrate on what the money is doing on the ladder! The 16.10 gave me a bit of trouble. I layed the fave at 3.35 Was about to take a 4 tick profit, when all of a sudden a back bet of 3.5k made the market crash down (only a few hundred was being traded on both back and lay sides at the time). It got towards the 3.0 crossover. Thought it was too low, so decided to place another couple of lays. Everyone else must have thought the price was good value to lay as well. The odds moved back to the original position, and I was able to scratch; well a 1p profit in the end (the horse must have lost). In the 16.55 I backed the fave at 3.5 Up til that point, there was a general upward trend. So, quickly layed at 3.45 just trying to scalp 1 tick.
Another mad bettor arrived, backing 6k! If I had waited 1 second longer, I could have had 7 ticks profit instead of 1. Ah well, maybe next time! The good part for me is winning 13 and losing only 1; a good strike rate, and another 62p in the bank to play with.  @mt22136 I notice that you have been viewing my blog everyday. How is your trading going?

David

David

 

2018 May 22nd Tuesday

Turned an initial loss into a profitable day.

In the 1st race, 3 times I layed what I thought was the bottom of the range. Lost every time. It's not showing in the picture below, but I successfully made a 2 tick profit in the 15.45 Unfortunately, the horse voided, so missed out on 12p.

Most races were profitable by laying the fave at the right times.

David

David

 

2018 May 21st Monday

Had a good day, considering that Mondays are normally quiet. Good in the fact that I had no losses; 8 wins from 8 races, mainly from backing the favourites at the right time. Shame, I didn't use higher stakes, but it is all good practise.

David

David

 

2018 April 6th Friday

It's been a while since I have logged in, never mind add a blog entry.
Didn't trade much in March, as was busy with other things.
Of course, there was the Cheltenham Festival; I'm not ready to trade that, but had no time anyway. Too busy making well over £900 profit that week from bookie offers. I realise why I have been losing money with this trading game. My strike rate has been high (which is good), but there is a flaw.
Previously, I was taking mainly just 1 tick profit, which is what a lot of beginners do. But here is the problem:
It is no good having 4 lots of 1 tick profits, then having a 5 tick loss. Because overall, there is a losing scenario. That's basically what I have been doing for the past year. I've added a couple of extra columns in my spreadsheet (I track the odds of the favourite to see if I can recognise regular trends), and when I did this, looking back I figured that if I aim for a 3 tick profit (which often happens once a market decides to move), and accepting a 4 tick loss, the break-even on my strike rate only needs to be 58% Any higher and the wins will outweigh the losses.
Most days would be winning ones. It just means holding on to an open trade for slightly longer, and having faith that I entered at the right time. Tried this technique in training mode on Thursday, and got a 100% strike, changing a starting bank from £10,000 to this: £1 profit from £5 stakes. On Fridays, I am normally more confident, so tried the new strategy in live mode. The 3 scratch trades, I scratched too early. More patience would have given me 11 ticks profit. I estimate about 75p extra profit could have been made. Still, even accepting a 4 tick loss on 1 trade, I ended up in profit for the day mainly because I took a 4 tick profit on the best trade in the 14:50 I'll stick with £5 stakes for the time being, and see how it goes. If I make £1 a day from that consistently I would be happy (with the knowledge that scaling up to bigger stakes, the daily profit would then be reasonable). Having not logged in for almost 2 months, I expect some of you may have thought that I have given up. Not the case, I am still determined to practise further.

David

David

 

2018 February 17th Saturday

Another good day, mainly from backing the favourites at the right times. The last trade in the 16:25 was interesting. 1st trade, backed at 3.1 taking a 2 tick loss. It then started coming down again, so I backed at 3.1 again taking 3 ticks profit.
So overall, the profit out weighed the initial loss.

All other trades were well judged with the timing. Strike rate 100%. Profit £1.29

David

David

 

2018 February 16th Friday

Thursday was a bad day. 6 tiles on my bathroom wall fell off, after being stuck on for 18 years.
Then I lose £5.30 on the trading, because most trades I attempted went wrong.
If I decided to back, the horse would drift. If I layed, it would get backed in. Today is a complete contrast. I have managed to get my newest pc running again. Remember when I said it kept switching off suddenly?
The culprit was a faulty processor. I have now put a new one in, together with a water cooler, and a front intake fan.
Cpu temp stayed at a constant 27c (which is cool) all afternoon, even whilst trading on it. Maybe using a faster pc is helping, because everything went right in the trading.
6 wins, 5 scratches. Could have had 5 more profitable trades too but missed the opportunities. Strike rate 100%. Profit £2.47

David

David

 

2018 February 12th Monday

I was being selective on which races to trade today. A couple of races only had 3 runners. On Mondays, it is often better to back the fav (as there are not so many heavyweight traders making it drift).
Could have backed a couple of them, but didn't as the 2nd was steaming at the time.
Could have layed when a spoofer was offering fake 2k and 3k back bets (I was too slow too recognise it). In the 15:20, I was looking to back the fav. It was drifting and drifting up to 3.75 Was about to back it to catch a downward trend, but all of a sudden 8 to 9k was backed and the market crashed down! Why didn't the backer wait 2 more seconds?!! Missed a downward trend on another race. With my 1st trade, only £4 matched from a £10 stake. Strike rate 100%. Profit 36p

David

David


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