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April 9th - Greyhound Trading Challenge

Yesterday I had a chance to trade greyhounds for almost 3 hours and this is the result: Nice and steady. I think the evening racing has a better liquidity but these afternoon races were good as well. Btw, I'm not using big stakes to achieve these results. Greyhounds are nice for their high volatility which is good when using smaller stakes. With a small stake you can achieve a nice ROI. Something like this for example: 13.64% ROI on my maximum exposure in this market... On the other hand, you can't scale too much. On the other other hand, there are tons of these markets every day. I think over a hundred races every day, every few minutes.  Stats: Current Equity:

Tomas

Tomas

April 5th, 7th & 8th Greyhound Trading Update

Another three day summary... I haven't been able to dedicate much time to greyhounds but at least I am finally in profit with a little bit of luck involved   April 5th: As you can see, I had only a very little time in the morning and in the evening so there is really not much to talk about.  April 7th: This day boosted my overall profit but it wasn't because of my excellent trading skills - it was due to an early suspended market. Exactly 10 seconds before the official start of the race I ended up with quite a big Back bet on a favourite: Luckily the favourite did win the race. But I quite don't understand one thing - why on earth the market is suspended so early? How can we rely on the time? Seems like we have to live with this issue and so I decided to close all of my trading positions at least 15 seconds before the official time. I usually finish my trading little bit earlier though. Unfortunately, I will miss some good opportunities which often arrive early before the official starting time. Except this race, I would still end up with £21.24 profit and that is what I would prefer - more days with a smaller profit rather than days with big ups and downs.  April 8th: What gets me into a loss quite often are those bloody big & unexpected spikes up and down. Someone often takes a lot of money (often in thousands) and he moves the price from like 3.00 to 4.00 in just one second. It's quite hard to fight against it sometimes but I think I can now roughly recognise if it will happen or not. Let's see what the future will bring Stats: Current Equity:

Tomas

Tomas

 

2019 April 8th Monday

Lost a lot today. The market behaved the complete opposite of what I predicted.
I didn't control the loss, instead kept adding to it. Then I took it inplay. If any of you reply, I know you'll say just take the loss. Sometimes easier said than done. My mind was not in the right state to carry on. So gave up for the afternoon. Contemplating giving up altogether to be honest. It's still money I can afford to lose (as made over £100 over the weekend from matched betting), but the small trading wins and big losses are annoying.
Why can't it be the other way around, as in big wins and small losses?

David

David

April 2nd, 3rd & 4th Greyhound trading update

I haven't been trading much in the last few days but for the record and maximum transparency, I want to publish my results from the last three days on greyhounds.  2nd April:  In the highlighted race I was caught by an early suspension of the market. It was suspended about 5 seconds before the official start of the race. Little annoying but what can I do? If I take this statistically, I should be in a small loss over the long term because of these suspensions. Why loss? Well, sometimes the greyhound wins, sometimes it loses but when it wins, I have to pay the commission. So, if I am correct, if there would be no commission, I should be roughly on 0. The commission should take me into a small loss.   3rd April: Nothing I can say about that, I just traded a few races with a small stake. 4th April: This day was nice. I was able to jump into a few races in the evening and I was pleased with the liquidity in the markets. I caught some nice swings and I noticed, together with @Tommy, that markets are heavily manipulated. It's not unusual that someone with very deep pockets does move the price for like 20 ticks or more and he holds the price in this range. Just to illustrate what I mean, this is a picture from yesterday's greyhound racing: Ridiculous amounts on ridiculous prices. Clear manipulation.  Stats for the last three days: Condensed stats: My strike rate is very good so I am being quite optimistic about the challenge. I only have to keep an eye on that bloody countdown and hedge my positions rather earlier than later   Current Equity:    

Tomas

Tomas

 

2019 April 3rd Wednesday

I found the markets behaving differently to what they normally do on a Wednesday. Was able to adapt by doing the opposite of my normal strategy.
But still cautious, and so I was quite selective as to which races to trade. Ended in profit for the day.

David

David

 

2019 April 2nd Tuesday

Started off with some bad luck. After laying a heavy favourite, it steamed down, so ended up with a losing trade in the 15.30 The very next race, in the 15.45 I successfully backed the favourite at 4.4 for 1 tick, and another at 4.6 for 1 tick.
Due to gain 23 or 24p.
Here is the bad luck; that horse got voided. So, all bets were cancelled. Still managed to end the day with a small profit.

David

David

April Greyhound Trading Challenge

I have decided to do some trading on greyhounds in April. Few days ago, a friend of mine asked me if I could show him some trading on Betfair. I did show him both, greyhounds and horses. But I was positively surprised with the liquidity on greyhounds and so they grabbed my attention. On some races there was more than 50K of traded volume. An average race was around 20-30K. I found these markets to be quite appealing! There was also a some talk about greyhounds on WowApp and I feel this is a good time to start a little challenge again.  I don't have any expectations or targets. I will simply trade whenever I feel I want to trade and let's see what will happen. So far, I am sort of learning these markets again because I didn't trade them for quite some time. My today's result: And some stats: My last race made this day negative but I don't care. I did soak up the markets and hopefully this will pay off in the next days, my strike rate is around 70% which is good. I only have to manage my positions better because in one race I did open bigger position than I should and I lost about £14 which is far above my average loss. I'm really curious how this will develop. Maybe more than you are, lol!   Happy trading!

Tomas

Tomas

 

2019 April 1st Monday

Found the markets more predictable today. On Mondays (maybe more so in the summer than the winter), with certain races, a pattern seems to repeat.
The clue is to think which horses a gambler would be betting on.
Apart from the 14.15 but I was quick enough to recognise and to scratch (which saved me several ticks loss). In the 14.35 I backed at 4.1 Only took 1 tick because 4.0 is a crossover and is often layed at.
In hindsight, I could have had a 7 tick swing trade. Not showing in the picture below, but in the 15.05 I offered a back bet at 3.3
My bet wasn't matched (as I was behind a queue of other money), and there was a big spike downwards.
If my bet did match, I could have a 12 tick swing trade! The 15.40 was interesting. A spoofer was laying the favourite early on. It was obvious that they wanted the price to drift above the real market value.
I waited for the spoofer to stop laying their multiple large stakes, and backed at the top of the range.
Did they stop as they run out of liability money? That was the time to enter with a back bet. Overall, a good day.

David

David

 

2019 March 30th Saturday

Started off ok with 3 winning races. After the 14.40, I stopped to do some matched betting (earned almost £70 from that).

When returning, I didn't like the way the markets were reacting, and so I lost confidence.
@Tomas Do you think it is a problem from not trading from a lack of certainty in the markets?
I tend to just watch if unsure. I could take more risks, but then may win or I may lose.
As you say, protecting the bank is the first priority. As with yesterday, late on in the 17.00, there was someone doing a lot of spoofing.
In the 17.05, I saw the same pattern, and took advantage. Only took 1 tick for 8p.
Could have had a few more ticks, as well as a few trades, but the spoofer was making it tricky; sometimes backing thousands, sometimes laying thousands. Made profit today, which is the main thing.

David

David

 

2019 March 29th Friday

Bit of a roller coaster for me today. Had a couple of big losses early on. The first, 4 times I backed a drifting favourite. The 2nd time, I backed at 5.2 (it was steady for a while, and so thought no one was willing to lay any more).
A sharp drift suddenly happened, and I lost 11 ticks. Then in the 15.15, I decided to lay the 3rd horse which was trading around 20.0
I waited for it to drop a bit, then layed for a few ticks.
Confident of doing this as there was a very heavy favourite that was likely to get backed a lot. So, the big win outweighed the 2 big losses. Today is Friday. The markets seemed the complete opposite of yesterday.
From 15.45 onwards, there seemed to be a lot of spoofing going on. A few other small wins meant I am up by 66p for the day.

David

David

 

2019 March 28th Thursday

A good day with no losses. Mainly from backing the favourites at the right time. Missed a few opportunities as well, including the 16.10, when twice I self cancelled a back offer at 2.5
Just after, there was a huge back spike, and the market suddenly crashed down to 2.26 (so nearly had a 10+ tick swing trade). Pleased with how the day went.

David

David

 

2019 March 27th Wednesday

Similar to yesterday. I had a loss in the first race but turned it around for a profitable day.

The favourite kept drifting up to 4.5 and coming back down.
It did this several times. When I decided to back it at 4.5, it goes and drifts and I lose 4 ticks (laying at 4.9, just as well, as the odds went up to as high as 5.8).

After that, made 6 winning traded races. Decided to stop at the 16.30 whilst I was in profit.

The races from 16.40 onwards were at fairly high odds for the favourites. Wasn't sure, so left it, but still watched the markets.
The markets seem to be more steady, and in hindsight, could have backed at a high point. Does anyone have any experience of late afternoon/early evening racing in the summer?
There will be more from next week, as the clocks go forward an hour; good for any part timers out there.

David

David

 

Challenge 30 days without losing all! 2º Day

Again my second race of the day gave me a loss,  $ -11.72  this has already been happening a few days ago. I need to find a way around it, it must be psychological or it's because I have not gotten into the rhythm yet. Tomorrow I will reduce the stake in the first and second race.   I still had two more significant losses on the day but I finished the day with profit.  In these horses with high odd it is very important to enter missing 4 to 3 minutes before the off, because before that there are a lot of movements made by bots or bad people who want to get their money lol. I posted a video with two races    My P&L today:

Vinicius

Vinicius

 

2019 March 26th Tuesday

Wasn't sure about today, because there were only 12 races on at 2 meetings. And being a Tuesday, can be quiet as well. Struggled with it today. Just watched the first 2 races, to see how the favourites odds behave. More value to back at a high point. The first traded race, the market didn't want to drift any higher. So I thought that is the top of the range.
Backed it at 2.22 and lost 11 ticks. Tried 3 more trades on the same horse. Almost halved my loss, but still a loss of 28p. In the 14.40, the odds were high. Waited for it to drift, then backed it. The next 2 races, the odds were low. There is more value to lay at a low point with these. In the 15.30, I backed the fave at 4.2 scratched (but could have gained 3 ticks). Not many layers in this race, and it steamed heavily.
Pleased with the correct anticipation, but disappointed not to profit. In the last race, the odds were high, so I backed at 6.4 for 1 tick. Not made much today, but considering I started with a big loss, managed to turn it around.

David

David

 

2019 March 25th Monday

I found the markets more predictable today, but had the annoyance of correctly anticipating which way the price would go,
only for a few bets not to match (as the market had already moved). Could have gained a 6 tick swing in one of them! One win and a controlled loss, meant I broke even today.

David

David

 

2019 March 23rd Saturday

I lost interest in writing my daily blog, because they do not inspire anyone. In January and February, spent a lot of time in training mode, as the winter months are unpredictable. I still lose money constantly. The day before Cheltenham with live £5 stakes, lost £3.06
Throughout Cheltenham itself, used training mode with virtual £5,000 stakes, would have made £300 to £400 profit each day
(and that was missing the first hour of every afternoon too, as was busy matched betting).

Today with live £5 stakes, I win 3 races for a total of 29p, then suddenly lose £1.28 Ended up 99p down for the day. The markets were horrible today which didnt help. Quite a few joint favourites which I don't like.
Or the odds are too high, or too few runners. So I didnt trade that much, spent more time watching the markets. When football is on, I arb the bookies for a few £ That covers my trading losses.
Can't see myself being successful with trading at all, even though I keep wanting to try.

David

David

Back to the past

Today, it's exactly 10 years since I first made some of my trading videos public. I found those videos accidentally. I completely forgot about them and it was a nostalgic moment to watch my younger self trading greyhounds and horses. I made so many mistakes that sometimes, it was painful to watch, lol  But who cares, if you want to see some retro videos and some really retro software, here it is: retro videos (greyhounds).mp4 Back then, I was using Bet Trader which was pretty basic software. I remember that the Grid interface was completely free to use and the Ladder interface could be unlocked if you purchased minutes. For example, you could purchase 1000 minutes and you could spend 1000 minutes trading in the Ladder interface. One year license with full access cost about £360 if I remember well (maybe I am wrong so if you remember the price, correct me). As far as I can see & remember, trading on greyhounds was quite different. I was often just using the Weight of Money indicator and nothing else. It was simple - if there was a big bet in the market, you could rely on it as being genuine, not spoof. Today, markets are heavily manipulated and spoofers are a trader's daily bread. I have also found a few horse racing videos and I will upload them later. Btw, vote in the poll!   Edit - I have also uploaded some horse racing videos from March 2009: retro videos (horses).mp4

Tomas

Tomas

Tom's Occasional Trading "Challenge"

It's been quite some time since my last trading challenge on Betdaq. It ended faster than expected. Because either of the bad software quality or the API quality of Betdaq, I couldn't have a confidence in my open positions. Sometimes there was a difference between my open position displayed in the software versus the Betdaq website, which is less than optimal situation. I have also received a message from @Luciano who wanted to see some challenge again. On top of that, I always wanted to post some information regarding my trading, sometimes with videos, but I didn't want to push myself into another challenge. These days, trading is not my top 1 priority and I dedicate quite a lot of time to other stuff so pushing myself into a challenge would not make me feel comfortable. I was thinking about the concept and yesterday, out of nowhere, the Eureka moment came to my mind. I will not be doing a challenge in a way to "earn X over the time period of Y". I will just post some random stuff that will come to my mind when trading, maybe a few times per month, just as it comes. There is no need to produce new content at any cost, I just want it to be enjoyable for both sides, you and me. Yesterday I started trading little earlier and I noticed there are some Australian races before the UK racing started. I used these markets to warm up myself and I recorded a few videos of how you can make the market in a low liquid race. I have always seen a very nice opportunity in low liquid markets because of the possible ROI. If you do it right, you can scalp many ticks with a small stake and have a good return. I think this is also a good complementary solution for beginners. If you can make a little profit from low liquid markets, it does encourage you and it may cover the cost of learning how to trade on bigger markets. If I will make any videos in the future, they may not be with a voice over. They will most likely be with some written description inside the video. To be honest, it's quite a pain for me to do a voice over and maybe it's a pain for you to listen to it as well  I hope you understand my reasons. So here is a video regarding the low stakes: Occasional trading - low liquid markets.mp4 And below is my result from yesterday's trading as a whole: My starting bank was:  And I ended up with:  Can you see? There is no point in risking huge amounts in order to earn a decent return. I was able to earn 55% on my initial deposit just in one day. So that's my message of today's blog - keep it simple and don't risk much. There is no need for that. Just stick to your rules and don't increase your stakes until you see some results. 

Tomas

Tomas

 

2018 November 17th Saturday

Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point (because all the mugs keep wanting to back them).
Did so on every trade today. But in the 14.45, I backed at 3.25, which was the highest point it had ever been.
Then a massive sudden lay spike, when I had to lay at 3.7 (which is a 9 tick loss). I did back again twice at 3.65 to gain 3 ticks profit. Made that 40p again in the next 2 races. So, recovered from a losing position, and turned it into a profitable day.

David

David

 

2018 November 16th Friday

Not many races at this time of the year. 2 only had 3 runners, which I don't like dealing with. Managed a profit today on 3 races by backing the favourites at a high point.
Could have had more, but 5 offered bets didn't match, as the market moved too quickly.

David

David


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