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About this blog

I started trading horses in January 2017. Lost money in the first 6 months, then started to make small profits.

Patience and a strong desire to succeed is necessary.

Entries in this blog

 

2018 November 17th Saturday

Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point (because all the mugs keep wanting to back them).
Did so on every trade today. But in the 14.45, I backed at 3.25, which was the highest point it had ever been.
Then a massive sudden lay spike, when I had to lay at 3.7 (which is a 9 tick loss). I did back again twice at 3.65 to gain 3 ticks profit. Made that 40p again in the next 2 races. So, recovered from a losing position, and turned it into a profitable day.

David

David

 

2018 November 16th Friday

Not many races at this time of the year. 2 only had 3 runners, which I don't like dealing with. Managed a profit today on 3 races by backing the favourites at a high point.
Could have had more, but 5 offered bets didn't match, as the market moved too quickly.

David

David

 

2018 November 15th Thursday

Another big losing day. Didn't do much in the first few races, 2p down, I can tolerate that.
But then the huge losses arrive again. In the 16.10, the favourite was getting backed down to 3.6 then reversing and drifting up to 3.75 or 3.8
It was doing this for several times. So, I thought the bottom of the range was determined at 3.6
When I decided to lay at 3.6, the market suddenly crashes down, and I took a 9 tick loss.
When it neared the crossover, it slowed down. I layed at 3.1 losing 2 ticks (just as well because it steamed well below the 3.0 crossover).
I layed twice at 2.86 gaining 4 ticks over the 2 trades. But overall, losing 74p. The 16.30 was good for me. Backing at 4.1 for 2 ticks. Backing again at 4.5 for 4 ticks. A 57p profit on a race is a good result with £5 stakes. Then a huge loss in the 17.00 The favourite drifted up to 2.48 and didn't want to go any further. I backed at 2.48 for 1 tick.
It dropped a few ticks. When it reached 2.46 I backed again, suddenly losing 5 ticks.
It came back down again, before drifting to 2.54 and not wanting to drift further. So I back.
Within a couple of seconds, it shot up to 2.74, so took a 10 tick loss. Why this happened is beyond my understanding.
Tried another trade losing 2 ticks (ok, fair enough).
The market dropped to 2.42 and hesitated. Often 2.4 acts as the bottom of the range.
This time, I layed. The market suddenly crashed down, making me lose 6 ticks.
So, whatever I tried, everything was going wrong. Lost 22 ticks altogether on this race for a massive loss of £1.02

This has put me well into the red for November (although I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so my losses are only a few pence a day, but still frustrated at the constant losing).
Even if I make a profit tomorrow, I know I won't get back the current months loss. I am a failure trader.

David

David

 

2018 November 14th Wednesday

I realise why I lost money yesterday. Last week was unusual in that the high stake traders weren't around, so there was more value to back the favourites.
I followed on by backing on Tuesday and lost. The traders were back this week in force. I know that by the way the markets behave.

Today, I lost 8p but regard it as successful. In the first race, I had a big loss of £1 The odds started out at 4.5 it drifted to 5.0 then hesitated (because not many people are willing to lay a favourite at high odds, due to the liability), and so I backed at 5.0 lost 3 ticks. Tried another 3 trades. Lost 10 ticks altogether in this race. Couldn't believe that no one was backing at that stage.

The trends in subsequent races behaved in their predictable way. Made a mixture of back and lay entries, depending on where the market was at the time.
8 wins later, I brought the initial loss from £1 down to 8p. So it is not so bad.
Could have been profitable because in the 15.20 at Ayr, I missed the opportunity to lay at 3.55 for 4 ticks (I estimate a profit of 28p).

The strike rate of 8 out 9 is more pleasing to me than losing 8p.

David

David

 

2018 November 13th Tuesday

After starting well, lost November's profits today. Before 3pm, it was better to back the favourites at the top of the range; was doing well as in profit by 39p.
In the 15.10 again I backed the favourite at the top. But the 3rd suddenly crashed down heavily (no indication that this would happen at all).
When that happens, the favourite will drift sharply. Took a 5 tick loss. Tried another 4 trades, losing another tick altogether. Similar happened in the 15.40 when I lost 54p. People mention to cut the losses, but it is difficult when the market suddenly move 5 ticks against you.

I rarely get 5 ticks for me, so the wins are always being outweighed by the losses.

David

David

 

2018 November 9th Friday

Haven't done much trading this week, as have been watching snooker. I did trade last Friday, and won 5 out 5 races: Traded this Friday as well. Found it difficult to read the markets, but managed a good profitable trade in 1 race: So, it covers some of the loss that I made in October. One thing that I have noticed since the clocks have gone back, is that the favourites aren't initially drifting as much as they did in the summer.
So, sometimes I decide to back instead of my preference to laying in the summer (still got to choose when the high or low points are).
So, not only have you got to learn how the markets behave, but how they behave in different seasons; no wonder trading is hard to master!

David

David

 

2018 October 29th Monday

Really feel like stopping doing this as always losing. Today, I lost another £1.68 I don't enjoy it any more, because I know that I'm going to have days with big losses, yet days with big wins never happens.

Unfortunately, this forum has no value to me either, because hardly anyone posts.
I thought everyone would be willing to share what techniques they are using, or even whether they are successful or not.
I have no comparisons to make, and so I will be stopping posting in this blog. Maybe I'll come back, if I do carry on trading and have learned to make a profit. At this moment, I have no confidence at all that will ever happen.

David

David

 

2018 October 26th Friday

Was in profit throughout October, but now lost over 10 weeks worth in one afternoon.

This week, the favourites have had a tendency to steam heavily; been making profits so far.

Then all of a sudden, the favourite in the 16.10 start drifting heavily after I backed it, losing 7 ticks from a sharp drift.
Then when it came back down, I layed 4 times, losing 3 ticks more.
It started with odds of 3.1 at 10 minutes before the off. The highest odds that I saw was at 5.0
Why did it drift so much?

In the 16.20, I decided to lay the 3rd horse 3 times. Losing a lot again, as it steamed heavily (it dropped from around 6.0 down to 4.8).

The 16.45 was pleasing, as I backed and layed 9 ticks lower. The last race, losing again to a favourite suddenly drifting, when there was no previous indication.

When no one is willing to lay any more, I assume that to be a resistance point, so I back. But then people start laying. I never understand why this happens? Typical pattern is win a few pence a day several times, then have a bad day losing several pounds.
Obviously losing in the long term with that. I'm beginning to think that I am not capable of being successful, because the profits on winning trades is insufficient to cover the losing ones.

David

David

 

2018 October 24th Wednesday

Had a good day. Normally, during the week, favourites have a tendency to initially drift, but there doesn't seem to be many layers this week.
Anyone know why this might be? I took advantage of that fact by backing the favourites at the right times. Could have had several more ticks, by placing more trades (but expecting more of a drift to happen made me wary of not entering the market). Also, could have gained 4 ticks instead of 1 a couple of times (if I had waited a second or two longer).

In the 16.35 at Fontwell, I offered a back bet at 3.25 It didn't match and the market crashed down to about 2.64
Therefore a missed opportunity, but at least I correctly anticipated when the correction occurred.

In the 16.55 at Newmarket, couldn't believe it when a spoofer layed 5k at odds of 4.4 - Madness to me, especially when it had already drifted to a fairly high point.

David

David

 

2018 October 23rd Tuesday

A case of keep calm and carry on. In the first 4 races, I had huge losses from placing several lay entry trades; everything went wrong. A loss of £1.47 Decided to enter with back bets in subsequent races. Had more success; so much so, that I turned the deficit in to a day profit of 11p

That meant I didn't make much money today, but had the pleasure of turning a big loss around.

Some would have walked away after losing big time (frustrations can easily kick in).
One must think long term, and ride the losses, as the profits will surely come sometime.

David

David

 

2018 August 9th Thursday

After losing money last week, when the Goodwood Festival had unpredictable markets, the markets this week, I have found to be back to normal. Mainly taking 1 tick per race (could have had a few each time, but a lack of confidence stopped me from holding an open trade for too long). The best bit is not a single loss in 3 days. That meant that I anticipated the direction correctly every time.
Wednesday had a few annoying instances where I offered a lay bet which failed to match before the market drifted! So, the profit could have been more still. Thursday went well. One obvious thing that I remember was being fooled by a spoofer. The favourite got backed down, and I could have layed at 2.6
The spoofer had offered 2k as a back at 2.62 It seemed genuine money to me, but it vanished a few moments later, for the market to drift a few ticks. Last Autumn, I was starting to make progress by having regular profitable days. @Tomas mentioned a few times that my strike rate was good.
I've used the same technique this week, and got a strike rate of 100% Just have to see if I can remember it all the time!

David

David

 

2018 August 3rd Friday

Friday was a really bad day for me. After 11 races, my strike rate was 8 wins and 3 losses for an overall loss of 17p. Not so bad, but still not profitable.

I then traded a few more races and the problems started. Backed one favourite at 3.05 (when it was always reversing at the crossover several times). There was a sudden late drift and I lost 6 ticks.

The last traded race, the 2nd horse was ranging between 8.0 and 9.0 for several minutes; could have backed at 9.0 and layed at 8.2 a few times.
The favourite was a heavy one at 1.6, and so expected the 2nd to drift out again. But when I layed it at 8.2, there was a lot of sudden backing, and i had to take a 10 tick loss.
There was no sign of this before, so why this horse had a big steam, I don't know (the favourite odds didn't move much to compensate, so couldn't understand the reason).

Why these sudden change in trends happen is something I don't understand; why would people suddenly decide to back a 7/1 horse?
I watch the markets for a while to see if I can recognise any range. I try to exit with a 2 to 3 tick loss, but sometimes the move is just too fast.

Ended up losing £2.55 for the day.

That led my mind not to be in a good state. The only good thing is that I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so can easily afford to write off the losses.
But constant losing is just tiresome. After 18 months, I still can't get the hang of this.

David

David

 

2018 August 1st Wednesday

Is anyone trading the Goodwood Festival? I am finding that the favourites are getting backed more than they normally do in an average week (not just at Goodwood, but at other meetings as well).

I was busy today with other activities, but managed 4 races.
All scratch trades saved me from having any losses.
2 wins means that I have earned more today than the whole of July.

Difficult to describe, but there is value in backing the favourite at a certain time, and value in laying the favourite at a certain time.
I can't tell you exact times in minutes before the off, but a regular pattern seems common this week.

David

David

 

2018 July 27th Friday

@Tomas How is it possible to gain consistency? Here is Thursday's results, where I had a good day, with a strike rate of 8/9. Won 58p
I was looking for stable markets and laying at the bottom of the range. Not necessarily the favourite, but on runners that had not shown any volatility. On Friday, I more than wiped out this profit, by losing 60p. The worst result was in the 16.20 Thirsk; the first kept wanting to get backed, and the second kept drifting from 4.1
Such a scenario happened several times, and so I thought I recognised that the second was never going to break the 4.0 crossover.
There was plenty of money being offered as a lay at 4.0, so I layed in front of that at 4.1 thinking I would be safe. Only looking for 1 tick.
As soon as I layed, the support money at 4.0 vanished quickly (not a spoof, just that a lot of backing suddenly happened). There was a massive drift on the favourite going from a low of 3.25 to a high of 4.7, which is what made the second steam down. I took a 4 tick loss, which doubled my loss for the day.

There was no sign of such a quick change in the market happening prior to this. Is that just bad luck, or did I trade wrong?

David

David

 

2018 July 21st Saturday

I haven't been trading much on Saturdays at all, so spent most of today just watching the markets (that is good practice in itself if you can analyse how markets typically react). Avoiding the ITV races (which may drift a bit), it is generally better to back the favourites, because on Saturdays, lots of casual punters think they can win by betting on a horse favourite.
This can create many downward trends. The hard part is judging the timing of when to enter. I only traded 4 races, due to a lack of confidence, but have still earned a profit of 29p. Learned a lot today.

David

David

 

2018 July 18th Wednesday

Made a profit, after a disappointing start. In the 14.30, I layed the favourite at 1.84 backing at 1.87 A successful 3 tick profit. 8p up
After losing 7 ticks in the 14.50 losing 14p, I checked my Betfair account expecting to be 6p down overall.

Took me a while to figure out why 2 trades were recorded instead of 3. The favourite in the 14.30 was void; so I missed out on hard earned profit!
I am thinking, why didn't my losing race get void instead? Still, with small stakes, being a few pence up for the day is a positive thing.

David

David

 

2018 July 17th Tuesday

I haven't done much trading in the last month. I come from a matched betting background, which I am still involved with.
Bookmakers were giving away a load of offers during the World Cup football that kept me busy.
I've earned a profit of almost £2,500 from that, which can go towards my trading bank. I'm not successful at horse trading. Today, I started with a loss, but 3 future profitable trades meant I ended the day at break even.
Had 2 scratch trades, where I cancelled too early (they would have made profit if I waited a bit longer). A 3rd scratch saved a loss.
I suppose it is good not to lose on any day, because my bank is preserved and I can try again tomorrow.

David

David

 

2018 May 24th Thursday

Started off well with a few ticks profit.
In the 3rd race, I layed the fave a few times at around the 2.5 odds expecting a low odds horse to drift. Surprised that it kept getting backed.
Hence the big loss of 65p. Despite that, every attempted trade was profitable, but was still hard to judge the entry point. One definitely has to concentrate on what the money is doing on the ladder! The 16.10 gave me a bit of trouble. I layed the fave at 3.35 Was about to take a 4 tick profit, when all of a sudden a back bet of 3.5k made the market crash down (only a few hundred was being traded on both back and lay sides at the time). It got towards the 3.0 crossover. Thought it was too low, so decided to place another couple of lays. Everyone else must have thought the price was good value to lay as well. The odds moved back to the original position, and I was able to scratch; well a 1p profit in the end (the horse must have lost). In the 16.55 I backed the fave at 3.5 Up til that point, there was a general upward trend. So, quickly layed at 3.45 just trying to scalp 1 tick.
Another mad bettor arrived, backing 6k! If I had waited 1 second longer, I could have had 7 ticks profit instead of 1. Ah well, maybe next time! The good part for me is winning 13 and losing only 1; a good strike rate, and another 62p in the bank to play with.  @mt22136 I notice that you have been viewing my blog everyday. How is your trading going?

David

David

 

2018 May 23rd Wednesday

Found it a bit harder today to judge the markets, but still ended up in profit. In 4 trades, my offered bets didn't match, so my profit could be higher.

David

David

 

2018 May 22nd Tuesday

Turned an initial loss into a profitable day.

In the 1st race, 3 times I layed what I thought was the bottom of the range. Lost every time. It's not showing in the picture below, but I successfully made a 2 tick profit in the 15.45 Unfortunately, the horse voided, so missed out on 12p.

Most races were profitable by laying the fave at the right times.

David

David

 

2018 May 21st Monday

Had a good day, considering that Mondays are normally quiet. Good in the fact that I had no losses; 8 wins from 8 races, mainly from backing the favourites at the right time. Shame, I didn't use higher stakes, but it is all good practise.

David

David

 

2018 April 6th Friday

It's been a while since I have logged in, never mind add a blog entry.
Didn't trade much in March, as was busy with other things.
Of course, there was the Cheltenham Festival; I'm not ready to trade that, but had no time anyway. Too busy making well over £900 profit that week from bookie offers. I realise why I have been losing money with this trading game. My strike rate has been high (which is good), but there is a flaw.
Previously, I was taking mainly just 1 tick profit, which is what a lot of beginners do. But here is the problem:
It is no good having 4 lots of 1 tick profits, then having a 5 tick loss. Because overall, there is a losing scenario. That's basically what I have been doing for the past year. I've added a couple of extra columns in my spreadsheet (I track the odds of the favourite to see if I can recognise regular trends), and when I did this, looking back I figured that if I aim for a 3 tick profit (which often happens once a market decides to move), and accepting a 4 tick loss, the break-even on my strike rate only needs to be 58% Any higher and the wins will outweigh the losses.
Most days would be winning ones. It just means holding on to an open trade for slightly longer, and having faith that I entered at the right time. Tried this technique in training mode on Thursday, and got a 100% strike, changing a starting bank from £10,000 to this: £1 profit from £5 stakes. On Fridays, I am normally more confident, so tried the new strategy in live mode. The 3 scratch trades, I scratched too early. More patience would have given me 11 ticks profit. I estimate about 75p extra profit could have been made. Still, even accepting a 4 tick loss on 1 trade, I ended up in profit for the day mainly because I took a 4 tick profit on the best trade in the 14:50 I'll stick with £5 stakes for the time being, and see how it goes. If I make £1 a day from that consistently I would be happy (with the knowledge that scaling up to bigger stakes, the daily profit would then be reasonable). Having not logged in for almost 2 months, I expect some of you may have thought that I have given up. Not the case, I am still determined to practise further.

David

David

 

2018 February 17th Saturday

Another good day, mainly from backing the favourites at the right times. The last trade in the 16:25 was interesting. 1st trade, backed at 3.1 taking a 2 tick loss. It then started coming down again, so I backed at 3.1 again taking 3 ticks profit.
So overall, the profit out weighed the initial loss.

All other trades were well judged with the timing. Strike rate 100%. Profit £1.29

David

David

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