Lost a lot today. The market behaved the complete opposite of what I predicted.
I didn't control the loss, instead kept adding to it. Then I took it inplay.
If any of you reply, I know you'll say just take the loss. Sometimes easier said than done.
My mind was not in the right state to carry on. So gave up for the afternoon. Contemplating giving up altogether to be honest.
It's still money I can afford to lose (as made over £100 over the weekend from matched betting), but the small trading wins and big losses are annoying.
Why can't it be the other way around, as in big wins and small losses?
I found the markets behaving differently to what they normally do on a Wednesday.
Was able to adapt by doing the opposite of my normal strategy.
But still cautious, and so I was quite selective as to which races to trade.
Ended in profit for the day.
Started off with some bad luck.
After laying a heavy favourite, it steamed down, so ended up with a losing trade in the 15.30
The very next race, in the 15.45 I successfully backed the favourite at 4.4 for 1 tick, and another at 4.6 for 1 tick.
Due to gain 23 or 24p.
Here is the bad luck; that horse got voided. So, all bets were cancelled.
Still managed to end the day with a small profit.
Found the markets more predictable today.
On Mondays (maybe more so in the summer than the winter), with certain races, a pattern seems to repeat.
The clue is to think which horses a gambler would be betting on.
Apart from the 14.15 but I was quick enough to recognise and to scratch (which saved me several ticks loss).
In the 14.35 I backed at 4.1 Only took 1 tick because 4.0 is a crossover and is often layed at.
In hindsight, I could have had a 7 tick swing trade.
Not showing in the picture below, but in the 15.05 I offered a back bet at 3.3
My bet wasn't matched (as I was behind a queue of other money), and there was a big spike downwards.
If my bet did match, I could have a 12 tick swing trade!
The 15.40 was interesting. A spoofer was laying the favourite early on. It was obvious that they wanted the price to drift above the real market value.
I waited for the spoofer to stop laying their multiple large stakes, and backed at the top of the range.
Did they stop as they run out of liability money? That was the time to enter with a back bet.
Overall, a good day.
Started off ok with 3 winning races.
After the 14.40, I stopped to do some matched betting (earned almost £70 from that).
When returning, I didn't like the way the markets were reacting, and so I lost confidence. @Tomas Do you think it is a problem from not trading from a lack of certainty in the markets?
I tend to just watch if unsure. I could take more risks, but then may win or I may lose.
As you say, protecting the bank is the first priority.
As with yesterday, late on in the 17.00, there was someone doing a lot of spoofing.
In the 17.05, I saw the same pattern, and took advantage. Only took 1 tick for 8p.
Could have had a few more ticks, as well as a few trades, but the spoofer was making it tricky; sometimes backing thousands, sometimes laying thousands.
Made profit today, which is the main thing.
Bit of a roller coaster for me today.
Had a couple of big losses early on. The first, 4 times I backed a drifting favourite.
The 2nd time, I backed at 5.2 (it was steady for a while, and so thought no one was willing to lay any more).
A sharp drift suddenly happened, and I lost 11 ticks.
Then in the 15.15, I decided to lay the 3rd horse which was trading around 20.0
I waited for it to drop a bit, then layed for a few ticks.
Confident of doing this as there was a very heavy favourite that was likely to get backed a lot.
So, the big win outweighed the 2 big losses.
Today is Friday. The markets seemed the complete opposite of yesterday.
From 15.45 onwards, there seemed to be a lot of spoofing going on.
A few other small wins meant I am up by 66p for the day.
A good day with no losses. Mainly from backing the favourites at the right time.
Missed a few opportunities as well, including the 16.10, when twice I self cancelled a back offer at 2.5
Just after, there was a huge back spike, and the market suddenly crashed down to 2.26 (so nearly had a 10+ tick swing trade).
Pleased with how the day went.
Similar to yesterday. I had a loss in the first race but turned it around for a profitable day.
The favourite kept drifting up to 4.5 and coming back down.
It did this several times. When I decided to back it at 4.5, it goes and drifts and I lose 4 ticks (laying at 4.9, just as well, as the odds went up to as high as 5.8).
After that, made 6 winning traded races.
Decided to stop at the 16.30 whilst I was in profit.
The races from 16.40 onwards were at fairly high odds for the favourites. Wasn't sure, so left it, but still watched the markets.
The markets seem to be more steady, and in hindsight, could have backed at a high point.
Does anyone have any experience of late afternoon/early evening racing in the summer?
There will be more from next week, as the clocks go forward an hour; good for any part timers out there.
Wasn't sure about today, because there were only 12 races on at 2 meetings. And being a Tuesday, can be quiet as well.
Struggled with it today.
Just watched the first 2 races, to see how the favourites odds behave. More value to back at a high point.
The first traded race, the market didn't want to drift any higher. So I thought that is the top of the range.
Backed it at 2.22 and lost 11 ticks. Tried 3 more trades on the same horse. Almost halved my loss, but still a loss of 28p.
In the 14.40, the odds were high. Waited for it to drift, then backed it.
The next 2 races, the odds were low. There is more value to lay at a low point with these.
In the 15.30, I backed the fave at 4.2 scratched (but could have gained 3 ticks). Not many layers in this race, and it steamed heavily.
Pleased with the correct anticipation, but disappointed not to profit.
In the last race, the odds were high, so I backed at 6.4 for 1 tick.
Not made much today, but considering I started with a big loss, managed to turn it around.
I found the markets more predictable today, but had the annoyance of correctly anticipating which way the price would go,
only for a few bets not to match (as the market had already moved). Could have gained a 6 tick swing in one of them!
One win and a controlled loss, meant I broke even today.
I lost interest in writing my daily blog, because they do not inspire anyone.
In January and February, spent a lot of time in training mode, as the winter months are unpredictable.
I still lose money constantly. The day before Cheltenham with live £5 stakes, lost £3.06
Throughout Cheltenham itself, used training mode with virtual £5,000 stakes, would have made £300 to £400 profit each day
(and that was missing the first hour of every afternoon too, as was busy matched betting).
Today with live £5 stakes, I win 3 races for a total of 29p, then suddenly lose £1.28 Ended up 99p down for the day.
The markets were horrible today which didnt help. Quite a few joint favourites which I don't like.
Or the odds are too high, or too few runners. So I didnt trade that much, spent more time watching the markets.
When football is on, I arb the bookies for a few £ That covers my trading losses.
Can't see myself being successful with trading at all, even though I keep wanting to try.
Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point (because all the mugs keep wanting to back them).
Did so on every trade today. But in the 14.45, I backed at 3.25, which was the highest point it had ever been.
Then a massive sudden lay spike, when I had to lay at 3.7 (which is a 9 tick loss). I did back again twice at 3.65 to gain 3 ticks profit.
Made that 40p again in the next 2 races.
So, recovered from a losing position, and turned it into a profitable day.
Not many races at this time of the year. 2 only had 3 runners, which I don't like dealing with.
Managed a profit today on 3 races by backing the favourites at a high point.
Could have had more, but 5 offered bets didn't match, as the market moved too quickly.
Another big losing day. Didn't do much in the first few races, 2p down, I can tolerate that.
But then the huge losses arrive again.
In the 16.10, the favourite was getting backed down to 3.6 then reversing and drifting up to 3.75 or 3.8
It was doing this for several times. So, I thought the bottom of the range was determined at 3.6
When I decided to lay at 3.6, the market suddenly crashes down, and I took a 9 tick loss.
When it neared the crossover, it slowed down. I layed at 3.1 losing 2 ticks (just as well because it steamed well below the 3.0 crossover).
I layed twice at 2.86 gaining 4 ticks over the 2 trades. But overall, losing 74p.
The 16.30 was good for me. Backing at 4.1 for 2 ticks. Backing again at 4.5 for 4 ticks. A 57p profit on a race is a good result with £5 stakes.
Then a huge loss in the 17.00 The favourite drifted up to 2.48 and didn't want to go any further. I backed at 2.48 for 1 tick.
It dropped a few ticks. When it reached 2.46 I backed again, suddenly losing 5 ticks.
It came back down again, before drifting to 2.54 and not wanting to drift further. So I back.
Within a couple of seconds, it shot up to 2.74, so took a 10 tick loss. Why this happened is beyond my understanding.
Tried another trade losing 2 ticks (ok, fair enough).
The market dropped to 2.42 and hesitated. Often 2.4 acts as the bottom of the range.
This time, I layed. The market suddenly crashed down, making me lose 6 ticks.
So, whatever I tried, everything was going wrong. Lost 22 ticks altogether on this race for a massive loss of £1.02
This has put me well into the red for November (although I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so my losses are only a few pence a day, but still frustrated at the constant losing).
Even if I make a profit tomorrow, I know I won't get back the current months loss.
I am a failure trader.
I realise why I lost money yesterday. Last week was unusual in that the high stake traders weren't around, so there was more value to back the favourites.
I followed on by backing on Tuesday and lost. The traders were back this week in force. I know that by the way the markets behave.
Today, I lost 8p but regard it as successful.
In the first race, I had a big loss of £1 The odds started out at 4.5 it drifted to 5.0 then hesitated (because not many people are willing to lay a favourite at high odds, due to the liability), and so I backed at 5.0 lost 3 ticks. Tried another 3 trades. Lost 10 ticks altogether in this race. Couldn't believe that no one was backing at that stage.
The trends in subsequent races behaved in their predictable way. Made a mixture of back and lay entries, depending on where the market was at the time.
8 wins later, I brought the initial loss from £1 down to 8p. So it is not so bad.
Could have been profitable because in the 15.20 at Ayr, I missed the opportunity to lay at 3.55 for 4 ticks (I estimate a profit of 28p).
The strike rate of 8 out 9 is more pleasing to me than losing 8p.
After starting well, lost November's profits today.
Before 3pm, it was better to back the favourites at the top of the range; was doing well as in profit by 39p.
In the 15.10 again I backed the favourite at the top. But the 3rd suddenly crashed down heavily (no indication that this would happen at all).
When that happens, the favourite will drift sharply. Took a 5 tick loss. Tried another 4 trades, losing another tick altogether.
Similar happened in the 15.40 when I lost 54p.
People mention to cut the losses, but it is difficult when the market suddenly move 5 ticks against you.
I rarely get 5 ticks for me, so the wins are always being outweighed by the losses.
Haven't done much trading this week, as have been watching snooker.
I did trade last Friday, and won 5 out 5 races:
Traded this Friday as well. Found it difficult to read the markets, but managed a good profitable trade in 1 race:
So, it covers some of the loss that I made in October.
One thing that I have noticed since the clocks have gone back, is that the favourites aren't initially drifting as much as they did in the summer.
So, sometimes I decide to back instead of my preference to laying in the summer (still got to choose when the high or low points are).
So, not only have you got to learn how the markets behave, but how they behave in different seasons; no wonder trading is hard to master!
Really feel like stopping doing this as always losing.
Today, I lost another £1.68
I don't enjoy it any more, because I know that I'm going to have days with big losses, yet days with big wins never happens.
Unfortunately, this forum has no value to me either, because hardly anyone posts.
I thought everyone would be willing to share what techniques they are using, or even whether they are successful or not.
I have no comparisons to make, and so I will be stopping posting in this blog.
Maybe I'll come back, if I do carry on trading and have learned to make a profit. At this moment, I have no confidence at all that will ever happen.
Was in profit throughout October, but now lost over 10 weeks worth in one afternoon.
This week, the favourites have had a tendency to steam heavily; been making profits so far.
Then all of a sudden, the favourite in the 16.10 start drifting heavily after I backed it, losing 7 ticks from a sharp drift.
Then when it came back down, I layed 4 times, losing 3 ticks more.
It started with odds of 3.1 at 10 minutes before the off. The highest odds that I saw was at 5.0
Why did it drift so much?
In the 16.20, I decided to lay the 3rd horse 3 times. Losing a lot again, as it steamed heavily (it dropped from around 6.0 down to 4.8).
The 16.45 was pleasing, as I backed and layed 9 ticks lower.
The last race, losing again to a favourite suddenly drifting, when there was no previous indication.
When no one is willing to lay any more, I assume that to be a resistance point, so I back. But then people start laying. I never understand why this happens?
Typical pattern is win a few pence a day several times, then have a bad day losing several pounds.
Obviously losing in the long term with that.
I'm beginning to think that I am not capable of being successful, because the profits on winning trades is insufficient to cover the losing ones.
Had a good day. Normally, during the week, favourites have a tendency to initially drift, but there doesn't seem to be many layers this week.
Anyone know why this might be?
I took advantage of that fact by backing the favourites at the right times. Could have had several more ticks, by placing more trades (but expecting more of a drift to happen made me wary of not entering the market). Also, could have gained 4 ticks instead of 1 a couple of times (if I had waited a second or two longer).
In the 16.35 at Fontwell, I offered a back bet at 3.25 It didn't match and the market crashed down to about 2.64
Therefore a missed opportunity, but at least I correctly anticipated when the correction occurred.
In the 16.55 at Newmarket, couldn't believe it when a spoofer layed 5k at odds of 4.4 - Madness to me, especially when it had already drifted to a fairly high point.
A case of keep calm and carry on.
In the first 4 races, I had huge losses from placing several lay entry trades; everything went wrong. A loss of £1.47
Decided to enter with back bets in subsequent races. Had more success; so much so, that I turned the deficit in to a day profit of 11p
That meant I didn't make much money today, but had the pleasure of turning a big loss around.
Some would have walked away after losing big time (frustrations can easily kick in).
One must think long term, and ride the losses, as the profits will surely come sometime.
After losing money last week, when the Goodwood Festival had unpredictable markets, the markets this week, I have found to be back to normal.
Mainly taking 1 tick per race (could have had a few each time, but a lack of confidence stopped me from holding an open trade for too long).
The best bit is not a single loss in 3 days. That meant that I anticipated the direction correctly every time.
Wednesday had a few annoying instances where I offered a lay bet which failed to match before the market drifted! So, the profit could have been more still.
Thursday went well. One obvious thing that I remember was being fooled by a spoofer. The favourite got backed down, and I could have layed at 2.6
The spoofer had offered 2k as a back at 2.62 It seemed genuine money to me, but it vanished a few moments later, for the market to drift a few ticks.
Last Autumn, I was starting to make progress by having regular profitable days. @Tomas mentioned a few times that my strike rate was good.
I've used the same technique this week, and got a strike rate of 100% Just have to see if I can remember it all the time!
Friday was a really bad day for me. After 11 races, my strike rate was 8 wins and 3 losses for an overall loss of 17p. Not so bad, but still not profitable.
I then traded a few more races and the problems started. Backed one favourite at 3.05 (when it was always reversing at the crossover several times). There was a sudden late drift and I lost 6 ticks.
The last traded race, the 2nd horse was ranging between 8.0 and 9.0 for several minutes; could have backed at 9.0 and layed at 8.2 a few times.
The favourite was a heavy one at 1.6, and so expected the 2nd to drift out again. But when I layed it at 8.2, there was a lot of sudden backing, and i had to take a 10 tick loss.
There was no sign of this before, so why this horse had a big steam, I don't know (the favourite odds didn't move much to compensate, so couldn't understand the reason).
Why these sudden change in trends happen is something I don't understand; why would people suddenly decide to back a 7/1 horse?
I watch the markets for a while to see if I can recognise any range. I try to exit with a 2 to 3 tick loss, but sometimes the move is just too fast.
Ended up losing £2.55 for the day.
That led my mind not to be in a good state. The only good thing is that I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so can easily afford to write off the losses.
But constant losing is just tiresome. After 18 months, I still can't get the hang of this.