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2018 July 27th Friday

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@Tomas How is it possible to gain consistency?

Here is Thursday's results, where I had a good day, with a strike rate of 8/9. Won 58p
I was looking for stable markets and laying at the bottom of the range. Not necessarily the favourite, but on runners that had not shown any volatility.


On Friday, I more than wiped out this profit, by losing 60p.

The worst result was in the 16.20 Thirsk; the first kept wanting to get backed, and the second kept drifting from 4.1
Such a scenario happened several times, and so I thought I recognised that the second was never going to break the 4.0 crossover.
There was plenty of money being offered as a lay at 4.0, so I layed in front of that at 4.1 thinking I would be safe. Only looking for 1 tick.
As soon as I layed, the support money at 4.0 vanished quickly (not a spoof, just that a lot of backing suddenly happened). There was a massive drift on the favourite going from a low of 3.25 to a high of 4.7, which is what made the second steam down. I took a 4 tick loss, which doubled my loss for the day.

There was no sign of such a quick change in the market happening prior to this. Is that just bad luck, or did I trade wrong?


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@David, yeah sometimes you can just have a bad luck and you can do nothing about that. More importantly - if you keep your discipline and accept your losses, you should be fine in the long term. And if you can gradually avoid some of these markets in the long term, you should be also fine. Did you video record & study why such a movement happened?

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It only takes one person to have a strong opinion to send you into negative territory so no point trying to think you can always get it right. If you got more negative than positive over time then you would question your methods. Maybe one point to look at is your biggest result either way was the negative one -21. Why do you think that was?

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On 7/27/2018 at 7:32 PM, Tomas said:

@David, yeah sometimes you can just have a bad luck and you can do nothing about that. More importantly - if you keep your discipline and accept your losses, you should be fine in the long term. And if you can gradually avoid some of these markets in the long term, you should be also fine. Did you video record & study why such a movement happened?

@Tomas It might have been bad luck. But in hindsight, I might now know why I lost.
No, I didn't video record, but I write down how the odds on the favourite behave, and the actual odds on trades that I place; so that I can analyse my results afterwards.
Last Friday, I tried a strategy which is almost the opposite of what I should do on Fridays.
The answer is to keep faith in a strategy that works most of the time, and trust that there is long term value in repeating it.

No matter, I ended July slightly in profit overall for the month, so must have got it right more often than not.

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