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2018 August 3rd Friday

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Friday was a really bad day for me. After 11 races, my strike rate was 8 wins and 3 losses for an overall loss of 17p. Not so bad, but still not profitable.

I then traded a few more races and the problems started. Backed one favourite at 3.05 (when it was always reversing at the crossover several times). There was a sudden late drift and I lost 6 ticks.

The last traded race, the 2nd horse was ranging between 8.0 and 9.0 for several minutes; could have backed at 9.0 and layed at 8.2 a few times.
The favourite was a heavy one at 1.6, and so expected the 2nd to drift out again. But when I layed it at 8.2, there was a lot of sudden backing, and i had to take a 10 tick loss.
There was no sign of this before, so why this horse had a big steam, I don't know (the favourite odds didn't move much to compensate, so couldn't understand the reason).

Why these sudden change in trends happen is something I don't understand; why would people suddenly decide to back a 7/1 horse?
I watch the markets for a while to see if I can recognise any range. I try to exit with a 2 to 3 tick loss, but sometimes the move is just too fast.

Ended up losing £2.55 for the day.

That led my mind not to be in a good state. The only good thing is that I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so can easily afford to write off the losses.
But constant losing is just tiresome. After 18 months, I still can't get the hang of this.

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Hi David,

Losses are tough to take - it's been the area I've struggled with.

Don't lose heart with yourself - 18 months might seem like a long time but I know of full timers who have taken over 4 years to crack it.

Do you record you trading at all? If you don't, a good piece of software is Screencast O Matic which is free (you get to record 15 mins) and you can then upload on YouTube to see if anyone can offer some advice / pointers.

Don't ever give up though!


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@Chris75 Thanks for the encouragement. I'm not about to give up, even though I've said that I feel like doing so a few times.
That's just the frustration when things go wrong.

I realise now, that with last week being the Goodwood Festival, the markets were different to how they normally behave. So, maybe my usual techniques weren't possible. I found sometimes the odds went up, other days similar races went down; which made it difficult to recognise consistent trends.

@Tomas is right when he mentions that you have to treat trading as a game. I've gone back to using £5 stakes again.
Doesn't matter if I win or lose. My aim is to learn how the markets behave.

I've had success this week, as you can read in my blog.

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Hi David

Yes, you are correct - the bigger meetings can behave differently.

I saw your results from the 9th of August and 16/16 is a great result - remember not to get too hung up on trying to get the perfect day though, as it might mean you are cutting positions too early. Also, a concept I struggled with for a long time was that I don't have to be right all the time to make money. Yesterday, I traded 13 races on Betdaq, won 7 and lost 6 but still finished up with just over £9 profit.

Hope you have a profitable Saturday - only 63 races on the card today 😃




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