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2018 October 26th Friday

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David

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Was in profit throughout October, but now lost over 10 weeks worth in one afternoon.

This week, the favourites have had a tendency to steam heavily; been making profits so far.

Then all of a sudden, the favourite in the 16.10 start drifting heavily after I backed it, losing 7 ticks from a sharp drift.
Then when it came back down, I layed 4 times, losing 3 ticks more.
It started with odds of 3.1 at 10 minutes before the off. The highest odds that I saw was at 5.0
Why did it drift so much?

In the 16.20, I decided to lay the 3rd horse 3 times. Losing a lot again, as it steamed heavily (it dropped from around 6.0 down to 4.8).

The 16.45 was pleasing, as I backed and layed 9 ticks lower.

The last race, losing again to a favourite suddenly drifting, when there was no previous indication.

When no one is willing to lay any more, I assume that to be a resistance point, so I back. But then people start laying. I never understand why this happens?

Typical pattern is win a few pence a day several times, then have a bad day losing several pounds.
Obviously losing in the long term with that.

I'm beginning to think that I am not capable of being successful, because the profits on winning trades is insufficient to cover the losing ones.

1655527395_261018Friday.thumb.PNG.5774cb97fed9ae49a2f48dd9ccbd9b6b.PNG

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Hi David,

At the outset, I can tell you from my own experiences within the markets that a lot of people take a long time to crack this - anywhere between 2 and 7 years. So, if you've not done it for that long, you need to give yourself some more time.

I've been doing it for 30 months i.e. less than 3.5 years and I will carry on because I know that it is possible.

Whatever you do, don't give up now and remember, you know far more now than you did when you started.

Hang on in there.

Chris

 

 

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On 10/30/2018 at 3:15 PM, Chris75 said:

a lot of people take a long time to crack this

Hi Chris, thanks for the kind words.

I won't be giving up yet. January will make 2 years since I started.
It's just frustrating not to have cracked it yet. That is why it is imperative to use small stakes until a consistent profit is made.

One thing that I do know is that trading is much harder than is portrayed on youtube.
Of course, people like to boast about winnings, but forget to mention their losses.

I think we will both carry on, as anyone that does give up would have done so a long time ago.

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Hi David,

Don't be too hard on yourself - as I posted on another thread recently, a professional trader once suggested it takes 3 years to master the market cycles

I'm certainly no expert but I would suggest that maybe you are cutting your winning positions too soon. Also, if you have a losing trade, it's sometimes useful to just step away from your desk - I say this, as I noticed you had 2 losing trades back to back in the P&L above.

What I would say, is that going through your blogs, you are getting more winners than losers so you must be doing something right.

Keep going my friend and you will get there in the end!

Chris

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    • Hi David, I am new to this game also, and I started trading in the same way ie: trying to 'scalp' as big a tick difference as possible in order to chase a greater profit (with £2 stakes), I soon found that more often than not the market changed direction before my closing bet was matched, resulting in a loss. I have now changed my trading to opening/closing a trade within a few seconds for one tick difference, I can also 'follow' the general odds movement by scalping in this way to build profit further. I also believe however, that making an initial decision as to whether a particular horse will steam or drift BEFORE attempting to trade it also helps in avoiding a loss (although this involves a bit of pre-race form study!). I found this video entitled 'directional scalping' really helpful https://www.betangel.tv/videos/betfair-trading-strategies/trading-on-horse-racing?jut1=3 Merry Christmas to all!
    • Hi David,

      You are not a failure trader! You only fail at something when you give up. An exercise for you:

      The markets are more volatile than they used to be and this lends itself to swing trading opportunities. For your next session, try observing the following markets:

      1) No more than 6 runners
      2) The favourite is priced under 3.0

      When you watch this markets, pay attention to how one horse's price movement affects the other. Also, look at resistance and support points on the graph prior to the last 10 minutes. On Saturday 1st December there are 5 races that meet this criteria and I can tell you that at least one of these races will result in a decent move which, if you are on the right side of, you will pick up a few ticks. Chris



       
    • Reading anything you write not make you think about changing the way you trade? "the favourite was getting BACKED down to 3.6" coming down all the way to 2.86 if not lower and you are trying to LAY it each trade!? Would it not of been much easier just to back? As you said yourself, it was getting backed. "17.00 The favourite DRIFTED up to 2.48" going up to 2.74 and higher? and you keep trying to back it!? its drifting as you said. Why are you trying to catch a falling knife/ jump in front of the train when you can get on-board instead.   Also these sort of statements you make "Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point" are just crazy imo. You can not go into a market and think, well its a Saturday and its the fav I better back it. Or its a Tuesday i better lay the second fav at the bottom of the range. The sweeping assumptions are dangerous. If the markets were as easy as that you would be loaded by now. I am not trying to be mean and please do not take what i say as me digging at you, i am just trying to help in my own way
    • My advice maybe a little bit unusual. It's been quite some time since you started trading, that means you know very well how to operate the software, you probably know different emergency situations and how to act & react when they happen. You know that it makes no sense to risk more than you can afford to lose. Right now you probably know every technical aspect of trading yet you still struggle to achieve long term profit and to go up in the game. Try something different than you are already doing right now. You need to be "in the zone" - that is a kind of situation when you feel like you have a trance. There is only you and the market. You feel the market as a living organism and you feel every beat of it. Have you ever felt like this? From my own experience, I have had just a few moments in my trading career which really meant I was able step up and jump to another level of trading. The first one was when I realized I can really make some money on this. It took me a few months (on greyhounds). The second one was when I earned £100 in a day for the first time. The third one was £1,000 in a day. The last one was £1,000 in a one race. Once I understood any of these milestones is possible, I was able to repeat them regularly. I want you to crack the first step, to get you into a profit. You obviously need to change something and my inner feeling is that you need to be more pro-active in the market. You need to be the one who does the decision and takes the position first. Market is often a slow & fat guy, yet very powerful. It's really hard to describe it but there is a little room / space for the profit. Market always follows that space but when it does, it creates another space. You need to get into a situation when you are the one who is on top of everything. That requires to make quick and maybe risky decisions but you need to stand up and do it, you need to get out of the crowd. Crowd will never bring you to the top. 
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