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2018 October 26th Friday

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Was in profit throughout October, but now lost over 10 weeks worth in one afternoon.

This week, the favourites have had a tendency to steam heavily; been making profits so far.

Then all of a sudden, the favourite in the 16.10 start drifting heavily after I backed it, losing 7 ticks from a sharp drift.
Then when it came back down, I layed 4 times, losing 3 ticks more.
It started with odds of 3.1 at 10 minutes before the off. The highest odds that I saw was at 5.0
Why did it drift so much?

In the 16.20, I decided to lay the 3rd horse 3 times. Losing a lot again, as it steamed heavily (it dropped from around 6.0 down to 4.8).

The 16.45 was pleasing, as I backed and layed 9 ticks lower.

The last race, losing again to a favourite suddenly drifting, when there was no previous indication.

When no one is willing to lay any more, I assume that to be a resistance point, so I back. But then people start laying. I never understand why this happens?

Typical pattern is win a few pence a day several times, then have a bad day losing several pounds.
Obviously losing in the long term with that.

I'm beginning to think that I am not capable of being successful, because the profits on winning trades is insufficient to cover the losing ones.


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Hi David,

At the outset, I can tell you from my own experiences within the markets that a lot of people take a long time to crack this - anywhere between 2 and 7 years. So, if you've not done it for that long, you need to give yourself some more time.

I've been doing it for 30 months i.e. less than 3.5 years and I will carry on because I know that it is possible.

Whatever you do, don't give up now and remember, you know far more now than you did when you started.

Hang on in there.




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On 10/30/2018 at 3:15 PM, Chris75 said:

a lot of people take a long time to crack this

Hi Chris, thanks for the kind words.

I won't be giving up yet. January will make 2 years since I started.
It's just frustrating not to have cracked it yet. That is why it is imperative to use small stakes until a consistent profit is made.

One thing that I do know is that trading is much harder than is portrayed on youtube.
Of course, people like to boast about winnings, but forget to mention their losses.

I think we will both carry on, as anyone that does give up would have done so a long time ago.

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Hi David,

Don't be too hard on yourself - as I posted on another thread recently, a professional trader once suggested it takes 3 years to master the market cycles

I'm certainly no expert but I would suggest that maybe you are cutting your winning positions too soon. Also, if you have a losing trade, it's sometimes useful to just step away from your desk - I say this, as I noticed you had 2 losing trades back to back in the P&L above.

What I would say, is that going through your blogs, you are getting more winners than losers so you must be doing something right.

Keep going my friend and you will get there in the end!


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    • Hi David, I am new to this game also, and I started trading in the same way ie: trying to 'scalp' as big a tick difference as possible in order to chase a greater profit (with £2 stakes), I soon found that more often than not the market changed direction before my closing bet was matched, resulting in a loss. I have now changed my trading to opening/closing a trade within a few seconds for one tick difference, I can also 'follow' the general odds movement by scalping in this way to build profit further. I also believe however, that making an initial decision as to whether a particular horse will steam or drift BEFORE attempting to trade it also helps in avoiding a loss (although this involves a bit of pre-race form study!). I found this video entitled 'directional scalping' really helpful https://www.betangel.tv/videos/betfair-trading-strategies/trading-on-horse-racing?jut1=3 Merry Christmas to all!
    • Hi David,

      You are not a failure trader! You only fail at something when you give up. An exercise for you:

      The markets are more volatile than they used to be and this lends itself to swing trading opportunities. For your next session, try observing the following markets:

      1) No more than 6 runners
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      When you watch this markets, pay attention to how one horse's price movement affects the other. Also, look at resistance and support points on the graph prior to the last 10 minutes. On Saturday 1st December there are 5 races that meet this criteria and I can tell you that at least one of these races will result in a decent move which, if you are on the right side of, you will pick up a few ticks. Chris

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