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Newbie's 3rd month

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zitlor

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I thought I'd submit a blog to support this site and to create a record for myself of how much, if any, progress I make.

I'd originally planned to trade footy but by chance saw a video on horse racing in May 2019. It looked fascinating so I placed my first ever real trade on the horses on June 1st followed by greyhounds a couple of weeks later. I quickly quit the hounds as the market jumped up and down so much it gave me palpitations 🙂.

For the first 2 months I did the large majority of my trading in practice mode as I was so bad. I could have closed my eyes, pressed the button and easily done better. Not even being able to do as well as random probability was disheartening but I persevered and something changed in early August. I focused on low liquidity horses and started braking even. 

Here's the first half of August. 

 

Aug1.thumb.png.4651417fdc9305572c26a4e4866f17e0.png

 

Bolstered by my new found success (of only losing 74p) I decided to try the hounds again. 

Here's how I'd gotten on by the end of August.

 

Aug2.thumb.png.52728d2a4cffb8dde0422d68087e1814.png

 

I'd made a whopping 314 pennies. A first step on the road to my 250k Betfair fortune. I decided to treat myself and spend all my winnings at once on (half) a glass of beer 😀.

Joking aside I was delighted to reach break even as it allowed me to escape practice mode and play for real money albeit tiny amounts. 

 

Newbie to Newbie Tips

If you want to record your trading I've found the free program Flashback Express to be great. Avidemux is a good free video editor. 

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You've learnt in 3 months what took me 5 yrs: Learning not to lose longer-term.

Next step for you here is to increase your selectivity. Analyse your successful trades and also your worst trades and start getting rid of all the naff entries. I can't say for certain as I haven't seen your trading style but on small stakes you should be doing much better in the gh mkts as people give away a lot more value with their fivers and tenners than they do with bigger stakes.

Try to prioritise entries which are safer but less likely to get matched. On the bets that get matched you can keep a real right stop if it goes wrong most of the time and if it's starts randomly working in your direction you can hold it. You'll get fantastic risk / reward and a few of those trades is better than 1000 breakeven trades for a fraction of the effort.

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Many thanks @eightbo for the great advice. I've been trying to reduce the biggest losses but haven't looked at all at trying to get the safer but less likely bets matched. I'll look closely at the market from tomorrow to see if I can find opportunities to put your advice into practice. 

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    • well done zitlor..slow and steady is the only way it seems..good luck for future
    • Thank you for the response to my blog. Yes, of course you are right in terms of the ideas and pointers provided by Thomas while the main ability is the skill of recognition (pattern recognition) to see where and then when to be operating in a market. The immediate usefulness for me is the realisation of the necessity to be in and out quickly, (bet/scratch/bet/scratch again and again). I find myself having a series of small losses but these will be offset against a far more substantial win. This will do for me while I improve my "sense" of timing. Mind you, at 70 years young and while being very fit for that age, my reactions are not what I would desire. That can be practised! Good luck, my friend!
    • I've been at this for a few months now and have come to the conclusion what Tomas provides here for free is fantastic in that it  gives you ideas and points you in the right direction but in order to realise the subtle differences between when to apply these strategies and when not to it takes countless hours of screen time. There's simply no short cut.  I think most will give up well before they get there but those who do make it to earning a professional level income, say at least the annual minimum UK wage, are perhaps 1 in 500 to 1 in a 1000 on Betfair. Closer to 1 in a 1000 I'd imagine. I've no idea if I have the inherent pattern recognition ability to succeed but I've given myself 2 years and I'm going to give it my best shot.  Good luck and if you feel like posting a regular blog of your progress I'll read it.
    • Thanks @Tomas I started with realistic expectations so I'm very pleased with the slow but steady progress I've made. I've no doubt I'll need the full 2 years I gave myself from the start if I'm ever to progress onto making real money in the big boys playground of UK horse racing. Time will tell but I've really enjoyed it thus far so I'm happy to patiently wait and see what happens. 
    • So you have cracked it, congratulations! I think that more people would be interested on how you are doing in the future. Any future updates are still welcome  
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