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A kind of Intro and thank you to Thomas

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Peter Hurley


Hello DreamFollowers,

I took an interest in Exchange Trading about a year ago. Was not into the straight gambling side of the business due to growing up seeing what it could do to a parent, my father. An intelligent man who was, nevertheless, in the grip of the gambling addiction. Lived his life believing that he could beat the system and died knowing that he could not.
My efforts so far have been less than creditable. I have been losing a little consistently. Nothing at all serious. My days of playing online Texas Holdem taught me to play well within my means. Tomas' idea of figuring what you can afford to lose and then dividing by 3 as a starting bank is first class!
My main strategy, for what it is/was worth, was to select races based on tip numbers supplied by Napchecker. I would then work in the range of 3 min out to the Start and look at the tipped horses for movement. The hope was that the so called "mug punters" would start to back these horses in and I could take advantage of that. Naive, Eh!
The amount of times that I would see a position go against me while I watched like a RABBIT IN THE HEADLIGHTS does not bear thinking about.
There were other "strategies" as well.
Today, for the first time, I have been trying Tomas' fast in and out scalping technique to good effect. It is apparent to me that I have much more control now and the fast action can get me in when a definite relatively sustained move one way or the other happens.
Obvious? Yeah, when it is pointed out to me! LOL
I am now living with the hope that the bizarre mental phenomenon of almost believing that the software was rigged, or I was haunted, or living in a simulation because of the improbability of (a) Position opened (b) Market going against immediately...so frequently.....might now be a thing of the past.
BTW...simulation idea not that bizarre (see philosopher Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument).

Thanks Tomas for re-igniting hope in an old duffer's heart.

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I've been at this for a few months now and have come to the conclusion what Tomas provides here for free is fantastic in that it  gives you ideas and points you in the right direction but in order to realise the subtle differences between when to apply these strategies and when not to it takes countless hours of screen time. There's simply no short cut. 

I think most will give up well before they get there but those who do make it to earning a professional level income, say at least the annual minimum UK wage, are perhaps 1 in 500 to 1 in a 1000 on Betfair. Closer to 1 in a 1000 I'd imagine. I've no idea if I have the inherent pattern recognition ability to succeed but I've given myself 2 years and I'm going to give it my best shot. 

Good luck and if you feel like posting a regular blog of your progress I'll read it.

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Thank you for the response to my blog. Yes, of course you are right in terms of the ideas and pointers provided by Thomas while the main ability is the skill of recognition (pattern recognition) to see where and then when to be operating in a market. The immediate usefulness for me is the realisation of the necessity to be in and out quickly, (bet/scratch/bet/scratch again and again). I find myself having a series of small losses but these will be offset against a far more substantial win. This will do for me while I improve my "sense" of timing. Mind you, at 70 years young and while being very fit for that age, my reactions are not what I would desire. That can be practised!

Good luck, my friend!

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