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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/23/19 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Good afternoon. I have been searching for a beginners guide to trading and have used all of the usual channels (Youtube videos etc) which have left me totally confused to be honest. The problem being no-one ever seems to tell you what they are doing or why they are doing it! So to have been pointed in the direction of this website has blown my mind! The wealth of information on offer is pretty mindblowing. Just wanted to offer a thankyou to Tomas for going to so much effort in putting this guide together. I am absolutely determined to make a success of trading and have begun reading the guide.
  2. 2 points
    Hi there I'm a semi newbie to all this I say semi as I have been trying to trade for a few months now and realise any money I have made has been just luck. During my time betting and trading I have burst more banks than a river during the stormy season a bit like 3 steps forward 10 steps back. So had a look at the course before introducing myself.I'm still trying to digest what I'm reading and seeing on the course.I'm hoping that the course and a bit of advice from the community that I can have more winning days than losing ones anyway thanks for allowing me to become a member.
  3. 2 points
    Welcome. I'm no expert but I've been at this for a few months and I'm able to achieve small but steady profits that add up over time. If you post up any questions or observations that I feel I can comment on in a useful way then I'll do so.
  4. 1 point
    This may be my final entry in this blog series as I'm unsure if I'm still a newbie at this stage though I've only yet completed 1/4 of my learn to trade journey as I gave myself 2 years at the beginning. It's taken 6 months to reach an overall profit from trading. That is I've now won back the small amount I lost in the first 2 months the few times I ventured out of training mode, some minor expenses, and the lifetime subscription to Geekstoy which I opted to pay for from the start.
  5. 1 point
    well done zitlor..slow and steady is the only way it seems..good luck for future
  6. 1 point
    Hello! I apologize in advance for my English - Google translator is my best friend so far ... I am from Russia, on the forum you have here so far only one member has seen from our country. But there are many from Ukraine and Belarus. I’m not a stranger to betting - for almost two years now it has been working quite well with bookmakers. But I decided to try scalping and generally trade on the betting exchange. Some experience already exists in this matter. He studied some materials from Kaan Bera - it is very difficult to understand. There is also a major scalping video training from another author. But with Thomas everything looks much easier and more accessible. So I'm starting to get used to it! Thomas, separately you respect for the challenge where you increased your bank 50 times in a month !!! It is very cool!
  7. 1 point
    welcome to the community @shugmac777
  8. 1 point
    Welcome to the community!
  9. 1 point
    Thank you for the response to my blog. Yes, of course you are right in terms of the ideas and pointers provided by Thomas while the main ability is the skill of recognition (pattern recognition) to see where and then when to be operating in a market. The immediate usefulness for me is the realisation of the necessity to be in and out quickly, (bet/scratch/bet/scratch again and again). I find myself having a series of small losses but these will be offset against a far more substantial win. This will do for me while I improve my "sense" of timing. Mind you, at 70 years young and while being very fit for that age, my reactions are not what I would desire. That can be practised! Good luck, my friend!
  10. 1 point
    I can only speak from my experience as an "ex" pro poker player (I am new to trading); but the advice mirrors the sensible advice already given above. I cannot tell you the amount of times I have seen people lose hundreds, and even thousands of dollars chasing a measly $10 because it would mean hitting their preset target of say $100. Chasing losses is even worse as I'm sure you know. I played if the conditions were right to sit down and play. In other words, if I had an edge in the game, I would play, and I would continue to play as long as that edge existed, regardless if I was losing or winning.
  11. 1 point
    STOP! STOP! STOP! STOP! - Seriously stop right there! Goals and targets are a really really bad idea, goals just create emotion. This is because you are going to either excel or under achieving simply due to variance in the short term, this doesn't matter how good your strategy is... Ever professional trader know this! Trading and advantage play of any type, is NOT about short term goals, win and loses!!! It's about the long term! In the long term, variance will always even itself out due to the law of big number. If you focus on the short term you will let your emotions rule (due to winning or losing short term) and this will in turn cause you to make emotional errors and be a lot less focused and less successful than you could of been.... I would recommend...... Turn your balance off, don't even look at it. Trade to your best of your ability according to your strategies and Never break your given strategies rules. Do this for at least a thousand trades as a bare minimum and in that time just try not to lose money. Protect your bank at all costs..... if you do this, the profits will come to you....what those profits are, will then depend on your mindset and not the market.
  12. 1 point
    I don't set any targets. I simply try to be as consistent as I can. If I have a winning streak I don't increase my stakes because I know my results will regress back to my mean in time and likewise if I have a losing streak I don't decrease my stakes because again I expect the results will go back to my average wins to losses ratio.
  13. 1 point
    I have already seen a lot of charts for racing. Almost always at the start of the chart there is a sharp drop in the odds on all horses. This is very similar to the pattern - the market opens, bets on horses come in and prices fall relative to the original prices. Then the questions are: 1) Is it realistic then at the start to simply bet against the victory of the horse and then get a good profit on falling prices? 2) If the first is real, then how do you know when to open bidding for a race?
  14. 1 point
    Personally, I don't use plans or goals anymore. I just do my best in every market and I accept the result. Sometimes, pushing too hard to reach the goal does result in making too risky decisions. I only focus to act according to my rules in the market. If I act according to my rules, the result is usually good.
  15. 1 point
    As Tom said, for me in some situations the weight of money doesn't mean a lot, it may just be someone wanting the market to go in their direction(spoofers). As I work with high odds in some cases the graph is upward the weight of money makes the market move, but it always disappears. My main indicator is aggression on a particular price, If the aggression on a particular price is too large no matter the weight of the money I go along with them to take one tick or two or a swing.
  16. 1 point
    In the betting exchange world, the two most widely used terms are Back & Lay. The betting exchange model combines two very different disciplines, namely betting & financial / stock exchange. The combination of these two disciplines gave rise to the new concepts of Back & Lay. In this chapter, we look at the term Back and explain what Back means both in terms of betting, and in terms of the exchange. The word Back is the general name for an action taken on a betting exchange, and is derived from the following concepts: Bet on something to win (from betting) Selling a commodity (from the financial exchange) 3.1.1. Bet To Win Betting on something should be familiar to most people, especially those who have placed a bet at least once in their life. You choose what you think will happen and you bet a certain amount of money on that choice with a bookmaker. For example, let’s say there’s a normal horseracing event. In this case, there are five runners in the race {which are called selections on a betting exchange}, along with their respective prices: Labyrinth wins @1.81 Organza wins @2.44 Occasional Dream @55 Mette @75 Chandon Elysees @80 And it looks like this on the Betfair website: Remember – Back is always blue You may be confused with the numerous prices and amounts in the grid above. You don’t have to be. That’s just the nature of a betting exchange. Because there are people betting against each other, Betfair only displays what users offer to each other. And the best offers to Back are in the blue column. You can match your bet at this price right now. Each of the possible outcomes of the race has odds, and as a bettor, it’s in your best interest to bet on your selection at the highest available price. For instance, if a betting exchange is offering odds of 1.81, and a traditional bookmaker is offering odds of 1.61, you would be £20 poorer if your £100 bet was successful by placing your bet with a traditional bookmaker. To earn as much money as possible, you want to get the best price for your bet (AKA Back high). So when you bet £100 on Labyrinth, at odds of 1.81, your position in the market would look as follows: Market situation after placing a £100 bet on the horse Labyrinth In other words, if Labyrinth wins, your net income would be £81. But if any of the other horses win, you would lose your £100 stake. 3.1.2. Selling a Commodity The basic rule of business is to sell something for more than you paid for it. As such, the idea is to buy low and sell high when trading. If successful, you’ll make a profit. As we said in the previous paragraph, you should Back high to earn as much as possible. From the perspective of trading and financial exchanges, it means that Back is the term for selling a commodity. How exactly to Back at the highest price on the betting exchange is the subject of another chapter. 3.1.3. Better Price You don’t have to only accept prices that are currently available on the betting exchange. When placing a bet, you can choose your own price like this: Choose a better price and wait to see if it will get matched Prices on a betting exchange constantly fluctuate, and sometimes, they fluctuate a lot! There are more transactions on Betfair per day than on all European stock exchanges combined, which is a good reason for prices to fluctuate. As I said, your goal is to Back high. You can either accept the current available price, and get your bet matched instantly, or you can try to ask for a better price. Then wait if the market positively fluctuates in your direction. When it goes back, cash out for a profit. What does this mean? When you think the price will not increase any further, you immediately take the best price available at that time (the one in the blue column). If you think the price will go up and then down, you ask for a better price. More info about this strategy will be outlined in the following chapters. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  17. 1 point
    Laying will probably be a new concept for you. However, this feature introduced by the betting exchange makes it an incredibly powerful tool for those who know how to use it. In the previous chapter, we explained that the betting exchange model combines two very different disciplines, namely betting & financial / stock exchange. We also explained that Backing is both placing a traditional bet and also selling a commodity at a price. It’s therefore logical that Laying is the exact opposite of Backing. Again, this term is explained from two points of view: The word Lay is the general name for an action taken on a betting exchange, and is derived from the following concepts: Bet against something to win (from betting) Buying a commodity (from the financial exchange) 3.2.1. Bet Against Something To Win Each bet is a trade between two counterparties – one party wants an outcome to happen (Back) and the other wants the outcome not to happen (Lay). When you place a bet with a traditional bookmaker, you’re the Backer and the bookmaker is the Layer: Bettor – Places a bet on a result he thinks will happen and wants to win (Backer) Sportsbook – Advertises a price for the event outcome, accepts the bet from the bettor, and pays out if successful (Layer) Both the bettor and bookmaker have made a bet with each other – they did a trade. The Sportsbook has taken the Lay side of this trade, and accepts the bet at the lowest price possible. The lower the price the bookmaker manages to agree with the bettor, the less money it will have to pay if the bettor wins. 3.2.2. Buying a Commodity The basic rule of business is to sell something for more than you paid for it. As such, the idea is to buy low and sell high when trading. If successful, you will make a profit. As we said in the previous paragraph, you should Lay low to earn as much as possible. From the perspective of trading and financial exchanges, this means that Lay is the term for buying a commodity. 3.2.3. Goodbye bookmaker! In the days before betting exchanges, Laying was a privilege only for bookmakers. So other than bets between friends, no one other than a licensed bookmaker could be on the Lay side of a bet / trade. Betting exchanges have changed the game, so being a Layer now is as simple as being a Backer. In effect, a betting exchange works like betting between friends on a global scale. Bringing together Backers and Layers. As such, the bookmaker is excluded from the betting process. Counterparties on the betting exchange are as follows: Punter (Backer) – One who wants the result of the bet to happen. The Layer will pay his/her winnings. Punter (Layer) – One who thinks the opposite and wants to collect the Backers stake. Let’s say you think Labyrinth will not win the race, or in other words, any other horse will win the race. In this case, you place a Lay bet: Remember – Lay is always pink In the picture above you can see what will happen if Labyrinth wins. You’ll lose £82 because you’ll have to pay the profit of the Backer who was your counterparty in this trade. However, if the Backer was not right and Labyrinth doesn’t win, you’ll earn £100. In essence, it’s the bet of a Backer who lost his/her bet on Labyrinth. 3.2.4. Better Price Asking for a better price works exactly the same as with Back. You only ask for a lower price in the dialogue window at Betfair and wait for the bet to be matched. Asking for a better price is a great strategy when you think the price will go down (where it matches your bet) and then up again (where you cash out for profit). < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  18. 1 point
    Being a Layer is a new thing for a lot of people and sometimes a difficult concept to grasp. However it's the exact opposite of Backing. Let me also briefly explain very simple math for both features of the betting exchange: BACK When you Back, you will win if the result that you Backed happens. Winnings depend on the size of your deposit and the price you bet: Back Winnings = (Price – 1) * Your Stake When you Back, you’ll lose if the result doesn’t happen: Back Loss = Your Stake LAY When you Lay, you’ll win if the result doesn’t happen. Your winnings depend on the Backer’s stake (the amount you wish to Lay). Lay Winnings = Backers Stake When you Lay, you’ll lose if the result you have Layed happens. Loss depends on the size of your deposit and the price you had bet. Lay Loss = (Price – 1) * Your Deposit Maybe you feel that this information is constantly repeated. However, you cannot successfully make money by trading bets on a betting exchange unless you fully understand the basic concepts. You don’t need to calculate these things when trading; the software does it for you. You just need to understand what really happens with your orders on the betting exchange. In the next chapter we’ll look at the principle of trading itself and a way on how to ensure a win, whatever the result of a sporting event. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  19. 1 point
    Let's take a closer look at how a trade on Betfair can work. In our example, there’s a horse race with the following prices to Back: Poole Belle @5.3 Tagula Night @5.9 Quick March @7.6 Etc. A horse racing market with 9 selections (only 7 are visible on the screen) The Prices of a selection represents the probability that the event will occur, and can be constantly changing. Prices are directly related to probability in that: Chance of Winning = 100 / Price Poole Belle has an 18.87% chance of winning according to the market because: 18.87 = 100 / 5.3 For example, if any horse starts playing up when going to the stalls, the price will increase and the probability of this horse winning the race will decrease. In this example, I’ve chosen to trade the price of horse Tagula Night. The price was going up for a while and I had a feeling it could go back down soon. So I placed a £100 Back bet @6.0 on horse Tagula Night and my position in the market was as follows: Back @6.0 on the horse Tagula Night Now I’m in an open position and risking £100 in the market. But as a trader, I want to close my trade and do the second part of the trade to Lay £100 at a lower price with a profit. As I had predicted, the price went down after a while. My logic behind the trade was the following – price movements tend to at least slow down or reverse around these round numbers: 2.00, 3.00, 4.00 & 6.00. And because the price on Tagula Night was hitting its peak @6.00, I decided to place a Back bet (to Back high) and wait to see if I’m right: Trading profit of £30 on the horse Tagula Night After a while, the price really went back down and I Layed £100 on Tagula Night @5.70. I then finished my trade because I had Backed and Layed the same amount of money on the same horse. The difference between the prices makes my profit or loss. You can see the matched bets on the Betfair website like this: Matched bets on the Betfair website You can see that as a Backer, my potential profit is £500 if the horse Tagula Night wins the race. However, if this horse wins the race, I’ll also have to pay £470 liability for my Lay bet. That means my net profit would be £30 if Tagula Night wins the race and £0 if any of the other horses win. This is called a free bet and an ideal scenario. Now you can’t lose. You can only win! As traders, however, we want to profit from this market whatever the outcome is. This can be achieved using a technique called hedging. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  20. 1 point
    Hedging (also known as Greening, Level Profit or Cash Out) is a clever way to ensure you lock in the same profit or loss irrespective of the outcome of the event. The example above shows that we have made a profit only on the selection we traded, Tagula Night. On the other selections we have won nothing. Hedging distributes your profit or loss across all selections so that: To spread your profit from one selection to the other, you have to buy / Lay this selection’s price (for less money). This reduces the profit on Tagula Night, but increases the profit on the rest of the field so they become equal. To spread your loss from one selection to the other, you have to sell / Back this selection’s price again (for less money). This reduces the loss on the traded selection, and at the same time, increases the loss on the other selections so they become equal. The actual formula for hedging is: Hedged Profit = Traded Profit / Current Price In this particular case: 4.55 = 30 / 6.6 On the following screen, you can see hedging in real action on the Betfair website: Cash Out – We’ll have the same profit on all runners Using the above example, we would Lay Tagula Night @6.6 for £4.55 (£30 / 6.6). The result is that you will win £4.55 irrespective of the outcome of the race. Don’t worry about calculating anything, there’s a handy button on the Betfair website and in the Geeks Toy software that will do the math for you. Just place the bet you need with a single mouse click. Matched bets window on the Betfair website after hedging < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  21. 1 point
    You don’t have to worry about the outcome of the race. You always know in advance what your profit or loss will be. You have much smaller fluctuations in your account – gains and losses are smaller, but more regular and always given. Much smaller fluctuations in your account are much better for your psyche, which is essential for successful trading, as you’ll read in the following chapters... < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  22. 1 point
    Trading on Betfair uses the following principles: Back + Lay Hedge (Cash Out) As you can see, the principle can be described in two lines and is therefore very simple. However whilst the concept is simple, making money from trading is far from easy! < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  23. 1 point
    I haven’t used the Betfair website for my trading, but it’s very important to understand how the website works and how you can place bets on it. Sometimes, there can be a problem with a Betfair API (the communication channel between your Geeks Toy software and Betfair server) and you have to close your positions on the Betfair website. This may only happen a few times a year but you need to react quickly in order to avoid losing your money. I’m always logged in to the Betfair website when trading. I don’t rely only on software and I always log in to the website before I log in to Geeks Toy. 3.5.1. Navigation 3.5.2. Backing & Laying 3.5.3. Cashing Out / Hedging 3.5.4. Betfair Mobile App < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  24. 1 point
    After logging in to the Betfair website, I always navigate to the Exchange tab: Always place your bets on the Exchange, where there are better prices than on Sportsbook And select Horse Racing – Today’s card: Displaying all of today’s horse races At this point, I have peace of mind in knowing that if there are any problems with the Betfair API, and placing bets in the Geeks Toy stops working, I can quickly switch to the website, find the market I want and finish trading on the website. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  25. 1 point
    To place a Back bet on the Betfair website, just click on the blue price and the website will show you this dialogue window: Placing a Back bet on the Betfair website Now you can choose the price and stake for the Back bet. Let me show you an example based on the screen above. I currently see the best available price for me to Back @2.28 and only £25 can be matched at this price right now. This is important – because if I want to close my trade quickly (for example, because of the time when the race is going to in-play soon), I don’t want to wait for a better price. I want to match most of my stake immediately. In this case, I would change the price to let’s say 2.26 or even to 2.24. What will happen? From my £100 stake, it will be £25 matched @2.28, £68 matched @2.26 and the rest – £7 matched @2.24. So I won’t get the best price but I’ll get immediate execution of my order. That can be very important in certain situations. I had to make this decision a few times in my life – for example when the Betfair API crashed a few seconds before the race went in-play and it probably saved me a lot of money. So I want to prepare you for this scenario – everything can happen. In case you need to close your trade quickly, be sure you know how to place your bets on the Betfair website. Placing a Lay bet works exactly the same. Just click in the pink area: Placing a Lay bet on the Betfair website And again – if I want to get my £100 bet matched immediately, I slightly change the price. In this case, I would choose 2.30. £90 would be matched @2.28, and for the rest of the bet, £10 would be matched @2.30. On the other hand, if you don’t want to match your bets immediately, you can wait for a better price. As I said before, prices always change and you can place your Back or Lay bet at a better than current market price and wait if the market will fluctuate in your favour. To speak specifically about the two images above, I’ll give you an example: By placing a Back bet @2.32 means waiting for a better price & placing a Lay bet @2.22 means waiting for a better price. REMEMBER: It doesn’t have to fluctuate in your favour! You can always end up with an unmatched bet in the market and it’s up to you to decide whether you have a chance to get a better price or if you have to take the current one. That’s the art of trading – continuous decision-making. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >