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Showing content with the highest reputation since 02/05/17 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    Markets seem to trade better and better as we progress into spring. Some markets exhibits very nice long trends. Had an emotional roller coaster today. It all began nice and smooth. Than an unexpected loss put me back to starting point. It was painful but after a few swears it went away. The next market proved just the opposite. Got in with bigger than usual stakes and cocked it up again. Than the real discipline kicked in and I sharpened my focus and finished the day positive. Why am I sharing this? Well that's is something that every trader encounters now and again. It is happening due to the fact that we are not robots but humans. We do make mistakes and that's ok. What is important though is how we react to that occurring mistake. Mistakes will never end as their mother is always pregnant :). But really that's how we evolve, that's the only way forward. The markets pay you to be disciplined. But even if positive at the end of the day the feeling of those reds still persist. Again that's ok. Eventually it will go away as many other unpleasant things do.
  2. 4 points
    Yesterday I had a chance to trade greyhounds for almost 3 hours and this is the result: Nice and steady. I think the evening racing has a better liquidity but these afternoon races were good as well. Btw, I'm not using big stakes to achieve these results. Greyhounds are nice for their high volatility which is good when using smaller stakes. With a small stake you can achieve a nice ROI. Something like this for example: 13.64% ROI on my maximum exposure in this market... On the other hand, you can't scale too much. On the other other hand, there are tons of these markets every day. I think over a hundred races every day, every few minutes. Stats: Current Equity:
  3. 4 points
    I have decided to do some trading on greyhounds in April. Few days ago, a friend of mine asked me if I could show him some trading on Betfair. I did show him both, greyhounds and horses. But I was positively surprised with the liquidity on greyhounds and so they grabbed my attention. On some races there was more than 50K of traded volume. An average race was around 20-30K. I found these markets to be quite appealing! There was also a some talk about greyhounds on WowApp and I feel this is a good time to start a little challenge again. I don't have any expectations or targets. I will simply trade whenever I feel I want to trade and let's see what will happen. So far, I am sort of learning these markets again because I didn't trade them for quite some time. My today's result: And some stats: My last race made this day negative but I don't care. I did soak up the markets and hopefully this will pay off in the next days, my strike rate is around 70% which is good. I only have to manage my positions better because in one race I did open bigger position than I should and I lost about £14 which is far above my average loss. I'm really curious how this will develop. Maybe more than you are, lol! Happy trading!
  4. 4 points
    Hello everyone, When we begin our trading journey, it's natural that our first goal is to make money. Of course, those of us who have been on that journey, know that before you make money, you will perhaps lose money and experience a lot of frustration. I think we all know that there will be people who give up and maybe, you've thought about giving up, too. But, it's important to remain focused as sometimes, you don't know how near you are to achieving your goal. As the picture below shows. Chris
  5. 4 points
    I've been active in the markets for 30 months now and, like a lot of people, I arrived thinking that it wouldn't be long until I was profitable. How wrong I was! Here is what I've learnt: 1) Learning to trade the UK/IRISH racing markets (pre off and in running) takes a lot of time. When I started, another full time trader suggested that to truly understand the movements of the pre off market, would take at least three market cycles i.e. sitting through the markets for 3 years. 2) From the professional traders that I've been lucky enough to interact with, it took them between 2 and 8 years to go full time - that is a very rough average of 5 years. 3) Whilst making money is obviously the end goal, a lot of stuff has to happen before that. You need discipline, excellent money management skills, knowledge of the markets, patience, mastery of your emotions, knowledge of the software etc. 4) Big one this: "Your long term profits will be determined by your weakest skill" - I'm not ashamed to say that I have a list that details all the areas I need to improve on. I'll finish with something that most people seem to forget: If you look at any professional who is at the top of their game; solicitor, accountant, doctor, dentist, architect, I don't think anyone could dispute that to get to that point, they've put in a lot of hours, perhaps as much as 5 - 7 years. If you consider that a successful horse racing trader could earn upwards of £70,000 why should that learning curve be any different from the professions I've mentioned? For me, I'm prepared to give it at least another 4 years and in that time, I know I will have traded at least 30,000 more races and, because I do some in running trading, I know my race reading skills will be at a very high level by then. Of course there is no guarantee that I will make it but if I think back to what I knew 30 months ago, I'm certainly heading in the right direction. Best of luck on your journey, Chris
  6. 4 points
    Saturday's trading was interesting on many fronts. After yesterday's long trading session, I was very optimistic but also a little bit tired. The optimism resulted in a high confidence but the fatigue resulted into a worse focus. So I didn't make any progress during the first few races. The pattern of my trading in these first few races was simple - any profit was followed with a loss and vice versa. But then I noticed a 'mad bomber' in the market - someone was laying huge amounts and he was pushing the price up on certain runners. When I first noticed him, I was on the wrong side of the market (that's the £20.20 loss in my P/L statement) and you can see the graph of that race below: It was very close to the start time so I had to take the loss immediately. Since this moment I was prepared to be more careful with my Back positions and rather make some Lay positions instead. In the very next race, I was able to make a nice profit of £39 and in one of the following races I made some other nice profits: Because I was very confident in the trade above, I opened a big position (relative to my bank balance). But most of the time, my highest exposure in the market doesn't exceed £200-300 at any time and it's part of my "risk as little as possible" trading strategy. I will increase my exposure as my bank will grow but for now I feel comfortable to trade with stakes as you can see in the top of each Ladder. You may wonder about the layout of Geeks Toy which I'm using. The reason is simple - I just need a change from time to time in order to not get bored I sometimes switch to different layouts but the core concept always remains the same. The other interesting part is that I went through the £1.000 in my bank account. It's a day 30 of my challenge and during those 30 days: I was able to increase my bank from £25 to £1.046, which is almost 4.200% ROI. That's not bad but I'm sober and I don't expect to have another 4.200% in the next 30 days - the bigger the bank on Betfair, the harder it gets to match all of your bets. That's the general problem of most of the Betfair markets - you can't scale much (except by Cheltenham Festival, Royal Ascot, etc. but that's another story). Another interesting thing that happened on Saturday wasn't about trading - I felt down from a slippery wooden stairs and I injured my shoulder when I was trying to keep the balance of my body. Since yesterday evening, I didn't sleep much and I'm trying to heal the shoulder. So that will probably be my top priority in the next few days (and hopefully not any longer). That was also the reason why I didn't trade on Breeders cup yesterday. My aim is to trade on Thursday, Friday & Saturday again in the next week, so see you there! Horses: Stats: Equity: Bank: ----------------------------------------------------------- “Sports Trading Exposed” is now free & open source! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written. Click to read it now!
  7. 3 points
    It's easy! Exclusive content is only available to valuable members of this community. In other words, those who give back are rewarded for their contributions. In order to view exclusive content, you need to become a Do-gooder at minimum (Do-gooder is a reputation level). How can you achieve this? Simply follow these steps: If you are not a forum member yet, register now. Once you are registered, you can introduce yourself. Post some valuable or informational content, either on the forums or create your own blog. If your posts are good, you will receive likes from other members of the community. Once you have 10+ likes on your posts, you become a Do-gooder and you can immediately access exclusive content! No idea of what to post? you can ask meaningful questions you can share your knowledge you can create polls you can write about your trading journey you can start your own trading blog you can add important sport events into the calendar ... Just remember - bullshit won't get you to the promise land. Be real, helpful, informative... And you will be rewarded.
  8. 3 points
    Hello everyone, my name is Tomas and I'm a creator of this website. I've been a full-time Betfair trader since 2006 and now, I'm exposing everything I have learned. If you want to read my full story, click here. I would like to talk more about the purpose of this community here. Every one of us is probably part of some community. The purpose of communities is always to get people together. And if people can get together and help each other, they can achieve great things. I've seen this many times - two people are stronger than one. Just use the community here to discuss ideas, ask questions and get inspiration. You never know when the Eureka moment will arrive to your mind! Where to go next? Introduce Yourself Put your mark on the map (this is how you can meet other traders in your area) Feel free to ask questions Or start your own blog and track your progress If there is anything you miss on this website, just let me know!
  9. 3 points
    This may be my final entry in this blog series as I'm unsure if I'm still a newbie at this stage though I've only yet completed 1/4 of my learn to trade journey as I gave myself 2 years at the beginning. It's taken 6 months to reach an overall profit from trading. That is I've now won back the small amount I lost in the first 2 months the few times I ventured out of training mode, some minor expenses, and the lifetime subscription to Geekstoy which I opted to pay for from the start.
  10. 3 points
    September started well but I hit a rough patch about mid way and seemed to be going backwards so I cut my stake back to bare minimum and tried to find some consistency in results and style. Overall I'm happy that I made further progress and I hope to be able to gradually increase my stake again in October. @Tomas I read your entire 25 challenge blog. Amazing how you built the bank. Like magic to someone at my level 🙂. You mentioned that you posted some greyhound videos that were subsequently deleted by Youtube. Would it be possible to post up these or any other greyhound vids again? You're already providing lots so if you're too busy don't worry about it. Newbie to Newbie Tips I know sooner or later I'll sustain a big loss from being caught in play. To reduce that probability I do the following at the start of each trading session. On my desktop PC I keep Betfair open on the cashout page - in case of a geekstoy crash I keep the following page open to check Betfair for problems - https://status.developer.betfair.com/ I also keep the cashout page open on my tablet - in case of computer crash I don't do this but I've read Tomas suggest keeping Betdaq open to quickly use to offset liability in case of a Betfair crash If I ever make any money at this I'll invest in what seems the best protection - a 4G enabled device and I'll keep that open on the cashout page
  11. 3 points
    Again my second race of the day gave me a loss, $ -11.72 this has already been happening a few days ago. I need to find a way around it, it must be psychological or it's because I have not gotten into the rhythm yet. Tomorrow I will reduce the stake in the first and second race. I still had two more significant losses on the day but I finished the day with profit. In these horses with high odd it is very important to enter missing 4 to 3 minutes before the off, because before that there are a lot of movements made by bots or bad people who want to get their money lol. I posted a video with two races My P&L today:
  12. 3 points
    I noticed move upwards in your video at 6:32 on horse Patrick. When that got high enough someone tried to close or push price down with that over 200 stake so I would look at placing back bet one or even two tick under that 200 stake and look for 2 tick profit and it could be more as seen on video. It was just my observation by looking at market without analyzing your operation for a second. You did really well in my opinion in these markets. Keep going 🤠
  13. 3 points
    Today's results, nothing too flash, was a long grind but did ok, last race went a bit tits up, it was actually a Caan Berry front runner tip but betfair had no live feed so i took a loss on that in play, actually had £1.44 pre race, my fault at the end of the day though.
  14. 3 points
    15. Special Thanks I needed to write this chapter because it’s very important for me. I have to express a huge amount of gratitude and thanks to my wonderful wife. She’s been extremely supportive and never let me down. I mean that literally. She has always helped me on the bad days, and without her, it wouldn’t have been possible for me to go so far with my trading. I think it’s very important to have support from your family and she was definitely the one who did so much for me. She was also the first to come with the idea of sharing all of my experience in a book (online course). I owe her a debt of gratitude and thanks. And of course, I have to say thanks to Paul (aka The Geek) and Janine (aka Mrs. Geek). They’re really great people. Thanks to their visit and advice, I was finally pushed over the edge and started on the journey of writing down my long time trading experience for the course that’s now before you. I also owe a big thanks to David who helped me with the proofreading of this course. I’m also grateful for his creative ideas. Any of course, the biggest thanks to God. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  15. 3 points
    Yes, of course - it's a useful exercise for me and hopefully will help a few others as well. Chris
  16. 3 points
    Today, I have used smaller stakes again and I did build my positions in the market gradually when I felt confident. It worked well, just the last race made the day little worse and I was lucky to lose just £12 in this race (my worst position was over minus £22 at one point). I know exactly what I did wrong in that race - I felt little bit tired and my focus wasn't ideal. I also underestimated the market because I thought it will be easy to trade and my approach in this market was too lax/careless. So it's an important reminder again - don't trade if you feel any of these symptoms However, it's sometimes easier to say than practice. These days, I'm busy with a lot of non-trading stuff and my focus often goes to various other projects. Then I can easily end up being non-concentrated. I'm looking forward to Friday and Saturday, hopefully there will be some decent racing. I say 'hopefully' because I really don't care about racing. I just trade what's on the card and I know nothing about it. (except by the fact there are flat & hurdle races) Horses: Today's stats: Current equity: Bank: ----------------------------------------------------------- “Sports Trading Exposed” is now free & open source! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written. Click to read it now!
  17. 3 points
    Let's take a closer look at how a trade on Betfair can work. In our example, there’s a horse race with the following prices to Back: Poole Belle @5.3 Tagula Night @5.9 Quick March @7.6 Etc. A horse racing market with 9 selections (only 7 are visible on the screen) The Prices of a selection represents the probability that the event will occur, and can be constantly changing. Prices are directly related to probability in that: Chance of Winning = 100 / Price Poole Belle has an 18.87% chance of winning according to the market because: 18.87 = 100 / 5.3 For example, if any horse starts playing up when going to the stalls, the price will increase and the probability of this horse winning the race will decrease. In this example, I’ve chosen to trade the price of horse Tagula Night. The price was going up for a while and I had a feeling it could go back down soon. So I placed a £100 Back bet @6.0 on horse Tagula Night and my position in the market was as follows: Back @6.0 on the horse Tagula Night Now I’m in an open position and risking £100 in the market. But as a trader, I want to close my trade and do the second part of the trade to Lay £100 at a lower price with a profit. As I had predicted, the price went down after a while. My logic behind the trade was the following – price movements tend to at least slow down or reverse around these round numbers: 2.00, 3.00, 4.00 & 6.00. And because the price on Tagula Night was hitting its peak @6.00, I decided to place a Back bet (to Back high) and wait to see if I’m right: Trading profit of £30 on the horse Tagula Night After a while, the price really went back down and I Layed £100 on Tagula Night @5.70. I then finished my trade because I had Backed and Layed the same amount of money on the same horse. The difference between the prices makes my profit or loss. You can see the matched bets on the Betfair website like this: Matched bets on the Betfair website You can see that as a Backer, my potential profit is £500 if the horse Tagula Night wins the race. However, if this horse wins the race, I’ll also have to pay £470 liability for my Lay bet. That means my net profit would be £30 if Tagula Night wins the race and £0 if any of the other horses win. This is called a free bet and an ideal scenario. Now you can’t lose. You can only win! As traders, however, we want to profit from this market whatever the outcome is. This can be achieved using a technique called hedging. < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  18. 3 points
    Hedging (also known as Greening, Level Profit or Cash Out) is a clever way to ensure you lock in the same profit or loss irrespective of the outcome of the event. The example above shows that we have made a profit only on the selection we traded, Tagula Night. On the other selections we have won nothing. Hedging distributes your profit or loss across all selections so that: To spread your profit from one selection to the other, you have to buy / Lay this selection’s price (for less money). This reduces the profit on Tagula Night, but increases the profit on the rest of the field so they become equal. To spread your loss from one selection to the other, you have to sell / Back this selection’s price again (for less money). This reduces the loss on the traded selection, and at the same time, increases the loss on the other selections so they become equal. The actual formula for hedging is: Hedged Profit = Traded Profit / Current Price In this particular case: 4.55 = 30 / 6.6 On the following screen, you can see hedging in real action on the Betfair website: Cash Out – We’ll have the same profit on all runners Using the above example, we would Lay Tagula Night @6.6 for £4.55 (£30 / 6.6). The result is that you will win £4.55 irrespective of the outcome of the race. Don’t worry about calculating anything, there’s a handy button on the Betfair website and in the Geeks Toy software that will do the math for you. Just place the bet you need with a single mouse click. Matched bets window on the Betfair website after hedging < PREV | HOME | NEXT >
  19. 3 points
    A struggle today as I started with a big loss of 11 ticks. @billylong asked me whether I have any recordings of my trading. Today, I used the recording software that is readily available in Windows 10. The picture quality of the uploads aren't great, but you can see what is happening. The video for the 1st race is here: https://youtu.be/m4InT5NgdPA I waited too long to exit. Could have scratched, but didn't as there was a lot of support money. I didn't recognise that it was spoof. When it steamed, I could have taken a 5 tick loss, but again waited too long (expecting it to reverse thinking that the back money was spoof) and lost 11 ticks. With the 2nd race, here is the video: https://youtu.be/eNK20QOJ9Lw Again, I waited too long to exit. Should have taken 2 ticks profit. Got 5 ticks instead when it drifted the second time. So, you could say a lucky escape that went in favour. A few profitable trades followed. Including the next race as shown in this video: https://youtu.be/W1KOmNFVEy4 One of my better trades. Taking a quick profit within a few seconds, before the market steamed down. With the 2nd loss, I started off with a 1 tick profit. Then tried again losing 5 ticks (that was controlled, but the market just went too quick). The 15:50 at Stratford only had 2 runners! This was because there had been 2 non-runners. The fav odds were really low at 1.11 Not worth trading, as any profit would be tiny anyway (unless you get loads of trades matched). And so, looked at the 2nd horse, which I could have layed at 7.4 Hesitation made me not trade it at all. Managed to end the day in profit by backing an obvious fav and catching 2 ticks. If I controlled that 1st loss, I would have made more profit. At least I recovered by having more winning trades than losing ones. 6 wins, 2 scratches, 2 losses. Profit 29p
  20. 3 points
    @Kak Tak I agree with the above quote from @Tomas Only the most patient will succeed at trading. Most people don't have enough of it, and will give up in frustration. In Ecclesiastes (which is 1 of 24 books in the Hebrew bible), chapter 10, paragraph 2 states: "Wise thinking leads to right living; Stupid thinking leads to wrong living."
  21. 3 points
    Scalping isn't a big part of what I do but some suggestions that might help you: 1) Look for horses that have a very tight trading range i.e. perhaps 2 or 3 ticks 2) Scalp horses at the lowest price possible - this will reduce your potential liability. Scalping a horse at 2.0 or under is far less stressful than one at 10! 3) Certain markets are less helpful for scalping - for example, trying to scalp a maiden race at Wolverhampton on a Monday afternoon is not a good idea! 4) Be ruthless with your exit - the biggest lesson I've learnt from Tomas' videos, is how quickly he gets out. I'm not the finished article but getting there. 5) Take regular breaks - try and have a break every 30 minutes or so. When you start its easy to think you 'need' to trade every race but you really don't. It's very easy to trade 20 races and then throw away the day's profit on the 21st race due to being tired. Try and adopt an approach of "Less is More" As has already been mentioned, it takes time to understand how the markets move but I promise you that if you spend enough time in the markets, you will pick it up. Best of luck Chris
  22. 3 points
    Hello everybody! I'm starting to blog. Sorry for my English. I will use google translator. So I bought Thomas's book and watched his video. All clear! ))) But now let's see what will be obtained from this. I am newbie. There is only an excessive desire and unlimited time. Tomorrow I begin. The bank is 100 $. In the evening I have a report.
  23. 3 points
    So got back to trading today which felt nice, and actually didn't feel too rusty either. Got on a handful of trades and all went well. Still using the same method and ideas as previously. All done pre off and this time nothing got twitchy at all. All nicely greened up. Felt nice to be honest getting back to doing a bit, and made me realise a bit of a break away isn't the end of the world. The racing is always going to be there.
  24. 3 points
    just to add to my post. learning this is hard very hard because if it wasnt everybody would be doing it.
  25. 3 points
    hi thesage. if its any consolation i am a full time in running trader . that has took me 8 years to achieve,i often ask myself how many people would of given up in those years . i have seen so many come and go on my journey . its not an easy task by any means but with a method and discipline it can be achieved. i am just starting on the journey to pre race trading so its another challenge for me.do i really want to get up and watch video after video in thomas book, not really but i know if i make myself do it ( when i dont want to ) the rewards far outweigh the work put it..in any business there can be failure at the start and any money lost has to be seen as an education.. i can recommend thomas book for methods and guidance ( as finding one yourself can be very very difficult ) but it still takes a lot of study and watching videos over and over again and working on the mental side which to me is the most important part of it in my opinion.as thomas says start small and try and double your bank over a certain period ..a little success will lead to more smaller successes then with that comes confidence then you can build on that