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Tomas last won the day on October 13

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About Tomas

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  1. Tomas

    Hello I’m Paulo Faria

    Hello @Paulo Faria, welcome to the community! Feel free to browse around and ask questions if you want to know something.
  2. Tomas

    BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 2

    The second day on Betdaq was quite similar to the first one. Lots of bets in limbo. I don't know if that is a problem/bug of the software (both Geeks Toy and Bet Angel do this) or Betdaq API. I think it's a problem of Betdaq API. My internet connection is okay and I tried to trade on Betfair to compare it. This is a major problem limiting my trading experience on Betdaq right now. On the following screen is my API settings manager - I lowered some numbers in order to be sure I won't be blacklisted: My API settings Generally, I found some Betdaq markets to be nice and liquid. On the other hand, there are races which are not that liquid and trading them using my scalping style is a pain. I need to be more selective. I would say half of the races are quite okay for trading, however, not all of them are ideal for my style of trading. I am a scalper and I like to enter & exit the market very often, while doing many scratches. There is a liquidity in these markets but bets are not filled very quickly. Betdaq prices just copy the move from Betfair - the core of the market, the engine - it's still on Betfair. Betdaq is definitely an excellent choice for traditional bettors or swing traders. For me, it's little bit more complicated but not impossible. I like trading on prices below 4.0 on Betdaq. It seems like there are more opportunities for me probably because horses with lower prices are considered to be favourites and people bet more on them. I have made a short video from my trading, showing some bets in limbo as well. Bet in limbo.mp4 You can see my screen setup for Betdaq - I use a tick graph because the default Betdaq graph is not available in the software. I also have the betting exchange website opened in case of emergency. Profit & Loss statement: My bank: Stats: 14 races traded 4 losing trades 71.4 % strike rate My strike rate is nice, but those bloody bets in limbo are accountable for some of these losses. The biggest losing trade was in Listowel where a late withdrawal happened. The market was suspended for quite some time before Betdaq removed the runner. In the meantime, the market turned into in-play. And exiting in-play on Betdaq is a nightmare in-play market on Betdaq is a ghost town with some bots. Bet in limbo.wmv
  3. Tomas

    BETDAQ Trading Challenge - Day 1

    I have started with the challenge today. I had no expectations or goals, I just wanted to observe how markets behave on Betdaq. As mentioned in my previous post, I am not connected to Betfair at all. I want to see if I can recognize trading patterns solely by using Betdaq. The short answer is yes - I can see some opportunities. However, I have also discovered few hurdles along the way. Betdaq API The first issue is the Betdaq API. It's not as advanced as Betfair API. You can't get quick streaming prices from Betdaq and if you refresh too often, you can be blacklisted. Then, you won't be allowed to place bets via API. Until I understood what's going on, it caused me several losing trades. It's a very good idea to have Betdaq website opened when trading. I have used the cash out button on their website many times today. The other thing with Betdaq API (or the software itself?) is that sometimes, bets are sort of "stuck in limbo". I have made two screenshots, both from Bet Angel & Geeks Toy to show you that it was happening in both of them: On the second Ladder, you can see my £10 Back bet @3.85. It should be matched but the software doesn't show that. It caused me some confusion until I figured out what to do. Another case - in the first Ladder, you can see that I do have an open position. However, Betdaq website shows that my position is hedged. Which is true? Betdaq website. In the software, it sometimes freezes like this and I had to check my position on the website. It happened in both Bet Angel & Geeks Toy several times during the day. Bet in limbo - it seems like an API call is lost for 18 seconds. That's true, but this particular API call should place my Back bet and close my position in the market. This is not an ideal situation because I had to manually submit another Back bet and wait if the lost bet will go through. It went through after a while and I had an open position again. As you can see, all of that happened after the official start of the race. Quite risky situation and I don't know how to avoid it. It only happened once today. Again - software is showing me an open position in the market but the website tells me quite opposite. Until I discovered what is happening in the market, I lost some money. So that's it - I wasn't able to rely on the trading software 100% of the time. That is quite disappointing but I think I can work with that. The important fact is to understand that Betdaq website is the single source of truth about my position. In the case of emergency, I have to check the website and close my position there. Other than that, I was quite happy with Betdaq. Since I last traded there, the liquidity has definitely improved. I am curious how the markets will look like during the week, Saturdays are always stronger... My Results: I started with £50 in my account: And I made this result: Current Bank: Stats: Markets traded: 36 Losing trades: 15 Strike rate: 58.3% I think there is a big room for improvement of these results because many of the losing trades were caused by misbehaving software. It's just a start of a small adventure and exploring something new. Does anyone have some experience with trading on Betdaq?
  4. Tomas

    BETDAQ Trading Challenge

    Chris, now I have found this option in Bet Angel:
  5. Tomas

    I'm starting a small challenge with £25

    I won't open Betfair at all. I've explained here:
  6. Tomas

    BETDAQ Trading Challenge

    Hi there, it's almost a year since I started this challenge and now, I would like to do a little experiment with BETDAQ. Why experiment? Well, because I have never been trading on Betdaq regularly. I only used Betdaq form time to time during the Cheltenham Festival or Royal Ascot. I really don't know if I can make money there because my plan is to only be connected to Betdaq exchange during the trading. In other words, I don't want to watch how the market is doing on Betfair. I would like to know if it is possible to trade just by watching the price action (that is something I was doing on Betfair for more than a decade). I never watched fundamentals like horses, jockeys, their form/fitness or weather on the track. I only observed the demand & supply in the trading software and I made my trading decisions when I recognized some pattern. The other argument to watch only Betdaq is that I have always been a scalper. A scalper is someone who does quick decisions and reacts to small market movements most of the time. I believe there is not enough time for me to watch one exchange and put orders on the second one. I tried this in the past and it only caused me a headache Also, arbitrage seems to be already made by automated bots and there is not enough room for a manual trader to arb between Betdaq and Betfair. Bots are almost always quicker and they are probably deployed on a server close to the Betdaq servers to minimize latency. This is going to be a small adventure (I will probably start tomorrow) because I will have to adapt on much lower liquidity. By the way, I have made a post about liquidity on Betdaq: I'm Supporting Betdaq As you may know, I don't really like Betfair because of their monopoly practices. I have decided, purely on my own, to support Betdaq on this website. If you don't have a Betdaq account, you can open it using my link or by clicking on any of the Betdaq banners on the website (I will receive a small commission if you do so). Real-Time Trading Chat on WowApp I've opened a real-time trading group chat in my favorite WowApp messenger. If you want to join, you have to use this link (or click any of the banners on this website). Some people were interested about what am I doing when I don't trade much anymore. WowApp is one of the things I'm quite heavily invested in. It's also the only place where you can connect with me in real-time. If you have any questions, ask me in the comments!
  7. Tomas

    I'm starting a small challenge with £25

    @Chris75, I have elaborated here:
  8. Tomas

    Betdaq Liquidity Explained

    @Chris75 asked if someone could elaborate on how the liquidity is calculated on Betdaq versus Betfair... Let's do it. There is quite a big difference in how it is calculated on those two exchanges and this calculation often makes Betdaq looking much better than it actually is. To be fair, in certain situations the opposite could happen - meaning that on certain races liquidity on Betdaq could look worse than on Betfair. Let me explain... Betdaq Liquidity Works Like This: When I match a £100 Back bet @2.00, Betdaq adds up £200 to the total matched volume When I match a £100 Back bet @1.01, Betdaq adds up £101 to the total matched volume When I match a £100 Back bet @1000, Betdaq adds up £100,100 to the total matched volume Do you get the idea? They add up my Back bet of £100 together with a Layer's liability at the price my bet is matched on. On Betfair, it doesn't matter if I match my £100 Back bet @1.01 or @1000. They would simply add up £200 (= 2x the Backer's stake) to the total matched volume. And that is the reason why liquidity on Betdaq often looks much better than it actually is. The simple pattern is that the more bets are matched on prices above 2.00, the better the total matched volume will look on Betdaq. The higher the price is matched on Betdaq, the more it will add to their "liquidity". Real World Example: I have made a screenshot of the race at Ascot. It's little more than hour before the start of the race: You can see three highlighted numbers in the screenshot. On the left, there is a liquidity as displayed on the Betdaq website. On the right, you can see the Betfair liquidity. And finally, in the middle, you can see Geeks Toy software which does display the Betdaq liquidity by using the Betfair methodology & calculation. So, if you really want to compare Betdaq versus Betfair, you have to use the numbers from Geeks Toy. It seems like Bet Angel doesn't re-calculate this so you can't really compare. Edit: Bet Angel does offer this calculation as well. Just go to settings and switch: Right now, the liquidity on Betdaq for this particular market seems to be just 3.8% of Betfair's volume. I will do a screenshot and update this topic just before the start of the race to see if it improves by then... Edit: Ok, so I have captured two additional screenshots from the same race. The first one is just a few seconds before the start of the race: You can see that Betdaq website shows 4.77 times higher amount of matched volume than Geeks Toy. And as we know, Geeks Toy is the metric which should be used when comparing with Betfair... Anyway, the Betdaq's share has grown quite significantly from 3.8% of Betfair's volume to 12.72% of Betfair's volume. That is a good news actually. Let's look at the volume after the race is finished: After the race is finished, Betdaq website shows 4.41 times higher amount of matched volume than Geeks Toy and Betdaq's share has dropped from 12.72% of Betfair's volume to 10.45% of Betfair's volume. Explanation is simple - people traded less during in-play on Betdaq.
  9. Tomas

    I'm starting a small challenge with £25

    @Chris75, which liquidity you mean? The one you can see in Geeks Toy or the one on the Betdaq website? They are quite different...
  10. Tomas

    wanting to start again

    Hi @ron, the whole course is now free & open source (here you can read why). If you want the original PDF file, you can find it here. Just keep in mind that videos in the PDF file point to YouTube and they don't work because after I made my online course free & open source, either YouTube has censored my channel or someone else has attacked it using the "flag as a spammer" attack. So I had to re-upload all of the videos here on the server. Yeah, that's about all.
  11. Tomas

    Market corrections

    Hi @Adam B, welcome to the community! Usually it is not tied to a certain price or price range. It depends on the underlying activity in the market and this activity can happen on every price. For example - if something went up exponentially, then the price will probably crash down and correction will happen, the explanation of such a market behavior is here: On the other hand, if something went down for a long time, then the move has slowed down on a typical support or resistance level and there is no will to move the price down anymore, then a swing up could happen: What I would recommend you is to watch the market and wait for these scenarios to happen. It doesn't happen in every race so it's good to be patient, observe what is happening in the market and act only if you recognize the pattern. Does that answer your question?
  12. Tomas

    Someone Else Trying To Delete My YouTube Channel?

    @David, I tried again with the following appeal: "Hi YouTube, very probably somebody has tried to disrupt my business. I have received many indications and comments from people who visit my website and who watch my videos. All of them say that someone has flagged my videos as inappropriate. Probably it was somebody who didn't want my videos to be public and free to watch for everyone - those videos could be potentially dangerous for some people who sell similar content. I would like you to look into the exact reason of why my channel was picked up. I want a clear and non-automated answers because I didn't break any of your rules. Really, I want some human interaction and engagement with you!" And I received exactly the same automated answer again: "Hello, Thank you for your account suspension appeal. We have decided to keep your account suspended based on our Community Guidelines and Terms of Service. Please visit http://www.youtube.com/t/community_guidelines for more information. Please do not respond to this email. Replies to this email will not be processed. Please refer to our Help Center for more information. Sincerely, The YouTube Team" @getintheir, yes, everything is possible and I don't know the truth because it is impossible to reach YouTube personally and get an explanation from them. So far I only received a feedback from the community saying that someone attacked my channel intentionally. I would never believe this is possible but I received exactly the same feedback from so many different sources that I have to take this seriously. Most of them were private.
  13. Tomas

    Back to Lay Selections by Chris

    Great results! I will promote this thread on Twitter if you don't mind the more eyeballs, the better for all!
  14. Tomas

    PC Charge £500 Allowance

    @getintheir, this is also interesting: It seems like their revenue is going down. No wonder after their restrictive & unfair policy - I myself quit from trading because of that. For a long time, I was observing the declining volume on horse racing. Few years ago, markets were completely different and much more active! It would be good to bring the "good old days" back on some other (fair) exchange.
  15. Tomas

    Back to Lay Selections by Chris

    That's a great return. I would love to see some more in the future if you don't mind