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ThisIsFine

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ThisIsFine last won the day on November 3 2018

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  1. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Yes, I was watching the stats on Bet365 and came in at 15:15
  2. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Over their last 4 league home games City have scored 16 goals. Over their last 4 league away games Bournemouth have scored 8 goals. I just signed up to BA and I remember Peter Webb from a YT video saying that he derives all his football predictions from goals scored and nothing else. By the above, we average out at 6 goals a game and 95 mins/6 is a goal every 15.8 mins. Teams will normally try and keep things tight at the start of a game, so this makes sense. If I have worked Soccer Mystic correctly , you are saying this trade will win £1.49 or lose £1.09 Thanks, Rob
  3. ThisIsFine

    Greetings travellers

    Welcome Egg, Glad to see that you are looking at OU 2.5 gls. I posted an excel sheet with 7000 matches from last season, where I collated recent form data here https://sportstradingexposed.com/forum/topic/242-football-data-for-trading/ I was primarily looking at fixed odds, but thing trading may be the way to go. Columns marked green are the last 8 games home and away. Columns marked peach last 4 home for the home team and the last 4 away for the away team. The blue and yellow columns are ELO stuff. Everything to the right of column AS is my dicking around. Have a play and let me know if you find something. There are trends in there !!! Chris is going to post some soccer mystic selections at the weekend. Good luck TiF
  4. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Thanks Chris, Let me know. Soccer Mystic is one of the things that may sway me to Betangel and the fact that you can make bots. Cheers, TiF
  5. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Allen, Spreadsheet uploaded in this post. Everything is based around the recent form table of the last 8 league games played and then further filtered to 4 home and 4 away. I'll not tell you what all the columns are yet. You should be able to work out most of them for yourself. Everything to the right of Col AS is my dicking around and I found some nice patterns, but I need much more data. Copy the worksheet and sort and filter on the columns before cutting out the rubbish and filtering on a different column. It's a bit messy, so tidy it up as you see fit. Some of the patterns actually led me to places I wasn't expecting. Message me if you find anything tradable. To continue our discussion above, I've spent 2 years working on this. 1 year on finding ( or what looked like) the correct input data and last year collecting it in real time and looking for patterns. Yet, I know it might just be BS. I'm a Process Engineer and have spent a lifetime looking at data and charts. Very often we find patterns where there are none, because we want to find patterns. That's a very human thing. Chris, I know it's possible and I know how it's possible, but is it possible for me. I wanted to be a musician, but regardless of all my practice and teaching, it just wasn't there. I did turn out to be quite a good and specialised engineer though. Rab, this is fine. 7786 END OF 1718.xlsx
  6. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    No offence taken and happy to talk openly but I think there are many things that lead to success. If you don't have a natural aptitude for something, then no amount of persevering and trying will make it better. I actually think it's criminal that we think this modern way. We have generations of kids who think that if they want it enough and try hard enough, then they will be successful. Bollocks. I see it in my own work. Some people are just naturally good at certain things and no amount of training or experience will make them any more than competent. Horses for courses, if you pardon the pun. I'd encourage kids to do the not so glamourous jobs and they'll be set for life If only 0.5% make money trading, the that is 199 people losing money for every successful guy. So, I believe in spending the time, learning as much as I can and also knowing when to quit. I'm also acutely aware of survivorship bias. Totally agree on getting to know a market and seeing patterns Chris and I'm glad it's coming good for you. Tomas, the guy's with special sauce don't know they've got special sauce !!!
  7. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    No probs. I'm really just scouting around just now to try and see if there is any money in this for me and if it is worth the time and effort. Yet to be convinced and the fact the only 0.5% make a profit is not good odds. I bought a course and I'm not convinced. Enjoyed Tomas stuff but not sure I would be able to read the markets that well. Tomas is fast too, so almost looks like playing a video game. Found a couple of Psychoff interviews that I enjoyed, but in all my reading, the very successful guys seem to have special 'something' that they can't describe. On a theme to what we are talking about, I found this interesting from LeeCal using Bots to trade the U 1.5gls HT market which is more my thing.
  8. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Hi Chris, Soccerstats is where I get all my recent form data from too. I don't even have any trading software yet, so the mystic may sway me...and the ability to make bots. Exponential Moving Averages is one one the main indicators people use in financial trading. Out of the hundreds on indicators, they are one of the first everyone has on a chart. People use them for directionality and they can sometimes act as support and resistance too. TiF
  9. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    Hi Chris, The forecast comes from yourself or Soccer mystic ? Yes, please predict some games. I spent a year trying to predict the outcome of 1X2 through research and stats etc and I was only marginally up over the season. All fixed odds. After that, I decided that I needed to make a system that would spit selections out at me with no human decision making required. My interest in the OU 2.5 goals market is that you are right or you are wrong, so I thought a 50:50 place was a good point to start at. I spent another year working out what was actually useful input data and ended up with using the recent form table. If I knew how to weight the data using an exponential moving average (over time), I would have. Thanks, TiF
  10. ThisIsFine

    Football Data for Trading

    For all football trading fans. I have an excel sheet with over 7000 games from last season, that I populated every week with recent form data ( last 8 games). It was with a view to finding trends in the OU 2.5 goals market, but I found some other trends that I am testing out this year. My original intention was to see if there was a mechanical system I could make for the fixed odds market. Are there any football traders out there who would like to take a look at it and then share with me anything you find? You can absolutely see trends when you sort on the data columns, but usually the bookie has it priced correctly. I hadn't thought about it before for trading. Unfortunately for the fixed odds stuff I'm working on, I need a lot more data, but trading may be the way.... TiF
  11. ThisIsFine

    Trading Price Boosts

    Yes, I'm following your course Tomas and read about spikes and corrections yesterday. My impression so far, is that you are a cold order flow trader , especially when you mentioned not knowing anything about horses at the start of your trading. IMHO this is the best and what I am most interested in. One of Peter Webb's better videos was on cold, order flow trading. However, I think this is exceptionally difficult to master. I'm still trying to figure out if successful traders actually know why they are good. Once people start talking about 'getting to know' a market and having a 'feeling' about it, then I have to ask, can you write this down? If you can't write down a set of rules that you can stick to, then you don't know why you are making decisions and you don't know why you are successful. I'm interested in the success of your swing trades, but even at this early stage, I think the best place for a part time beginner to begin is scalping horses with flat prices in the ITV races on Saturday. Below is todays Will Hill noon boost at 6.0 My point was not to trade it as a spike, but to trade it at noon because you know it is coming and there will be a lot of lay money for it. i.e. take a position and close after all the matched bettors have layed off at 12:30
  12. ThisIsFine

    Trading Price Boosts

    Does anyone trade price boosts ? This is the daily William Hill price boost at 14:40 Carlisle Guess which horse the matched bettors are laying immediately after the noon flash odds???
  13. ThisIsFine

    ThisIsFine

    Thank you for your replies. Some interesting points to debate. Firstly, I think I'm going to give this until 2020 and if I don't see any improvement or learning, then I will stop and look at something else. I have another couple of projects that I am working on too, which are running in the background. If I don't see any improvement in myself and make consistent loses, then there is no way I will be spending 5 years banging my head against a brick wall. I think in every field, sometimes it's just kinder to give someone a tap on the shoulder and say " you're just not cut out for this". I have a very specialised engineering job that I have done for nearly 30 years. I hate it, but I am good at it. Some people call me an expert at work and I hate that. I always correct them and hate that word. My position is that everything that I have learned and experienced, just lets me appreciate how little I actually know about my field. When you are young, you don't know that you don't know anything! It took me years after I finished trading gold that I realised, I didn't really know so much and was riding a bull market at the correct time (lucky). I guess everyone here has read Taleb's 'Fooled by Randomness'. I spent a lot of time on technical analysis using every indicator going but everything really comes down to price action in the end. Yes, If support and resistance is similar to financial markets, then swing trading may be the thing. I'll look at both. I'm totally happy with psychology, bank management etc This seems like a relatively small group, so this is good. One thing I have noticed and I wonder if anyone uses, is the exponential odds changes, on in-running markets? I'm primarily thinking of the Over/Under 2.5 goals right now and how the prices move from linear to exponential as the time decays. I have an offer from a pro racing trader to go and visit him. I'll go when I've learned a bit more about these markets and my health is better, maybe next year. He is an ex bookie and only trades in running and says that he just knows how the markets work.
  14. ThisIsFine

    ThisIsFine

  15. ThisIsFine

    ThisIsFine

    I read Caan Berry's book and didn't think much of it. It also took me ages to find a useful Peter Webb video on cold trading order flow. Ah ha !! lightbulb It was in the comments to that youtube video that I found Tomas' name. Yes, totally agree with getting to know the markets.
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