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Everything posted by zitlor

  1. zitlor

    Best Time to Enter?

    Hi James. I've not yet done a lot of UK racing but I try to enter when money is flowing at it's highest rate as money moves markets and it's easier to get taken in your opening position and get out of a position if you need to. Typically the greatest flow is in the last 5 mins but this varies upon the quality of the race and if races are over lapping. Tomas gives a top tip. That's to have the last race video on and as that race finishes you can expect money flow to increase on the next.
  2. zitlor


    Good luck with the challenge. That's a nice clear video capture. I'm going to check out OBS studio.
  3. zitlor

    Rule 4 - Betfair

    My understanding is that the reduction factor is applied when a runner is removed before the off. If you have an open position when a runner is removed, and it's one of those at a short price, a reduction factor will be applied to the back or lay position you had opened. If you hedge before Betfair suspends the market then that reduction is applied to the back you opened and the lay you closed for example thereby cancelling each other out which is why I'll close an open position as soon as I see one of the favourites being removed.
  4. zitlor

    Rule 4 - Betfair

    Hi if I understand correctly you're talking about the reduction factor. I'm still learning about this myself as I've largely traded greyhounds not horses but if I have an open position on a ladder, and I see or hear on the video feed that a runner is being removed, I quickly close my position before Betfair suspends the market and applies the reduction to my open position. You need to always pay attention to what's happening on the video as well as the ladders. Hope this helps but there may be others with more experience and better advice on this issue.
  5. zitlor

    Welome to my journey

    Welcome @Winrite It may be a good idea to try out both pieces of software for the free trial period. The Betdaq versions of both are completely free if you want an extended free trial but unfortunately they don't have training mode. Betangel has more bells and whistles but many wont use them, it also has automation which Geekstoy doesn't have, but in the long term Geekstoy works out far cheaper. Just 120 for, in theory, a lifetime subscription compared to (last I checked) a 150 per year ongoing Betangel subscription.
  6. Those are incredible stats but it does seem genuine to me too. Hard to believe he truly walked away from a gold mine that still had a rich seam therein. I know officially he exclusively pursued a new business but it wouldn't surprise me if some Saturday afternoons were spent digging gold with someone else's spade.
  7. I said if I ever found evidence of Peter or Caan's long term P&L after 2015 I'd come back here and post it. I haven't but in reading about Psychoff today I found an amazing story that seems to have credible P&L shots to support it. It seems over a decade ago a 24 yo Adam Heathcote blogged how he went from 0 to 350k in 2 years trading pre off horses before disappearing from the scene. Some question it's veracity but on balance it seems authentic to me. Here's an archive of his blog http://web.archive.org/web/20160603050357/http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/ Whether anyone could possibly replicate those kind of numbers in today's more efficient markets, before being hit with a 60% premium charge, I don't know but the incredible profits made by this genius make our own Tomas look like the class dunce. 🤣 🤣 🤣 As ever just kidding Tomas. As I make my 50p's in greyhounds I can only dream of replicating half of what you did.
  8. Thought I'd add a little more here after watching a recent webchat between Peter Webb and Psychoff the most well known successful football trader. Psychoff supported a couple of the points I made above by being surprisingly honest. To paraphrase him, he's found that the markets have continuously changed, every year it's become harder for him to make money and very high liquidity in certain markets has made it a lot harder for him to profit therein as those markets are more efficient as a consequence. I'm sure he still makes a good income from footy but clearly not as much as he was once able to. He now provides a paid course. 1k for basic and 2k for advanced. Wow! I know he has a lot of knowledge to impart and it does include group sessions online as he trades live but considering just how small a percentage of traders ever go on to make a long term profit there'll inevitably be a lot of unhappy customers. Here's the chat, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OuSGUx4Nv0
  9. zitlor


    I've been trading for nearly a year now and I've only seen a couple of major outages on Betfair. I check the following website before I start each session and again if I notice any strange behaviour in Geekstoy. https://status.developer.betfair.com/ It hasn't been a significant problem in my experience but I still don't use big stakes so my risk isn't large yet and in the very long term I'd expect to break even anyway minus commission. The only way I can think of to greatly reduce your risk is to have the free Betdaq version of Geekstoy / Betangel running to be ready to instantly hedge your risk there but you'd have to be very disciplined to ensure it was ready for the rare occasion you'd need it.
  10. I guess we piece together the bits and pieces of info we're given Small player and make our own judgements thereupon, not unlike trading. For the record I'm confident Caan is a profitable pro trader as he's been endorsed by industry insiders like the geek. I just don't believe he makes anything like the 100k+ annual profit from trading that he's implied. It seems our own Tomas has the Midas touch and has our unshakeable confidence. Perhaps this is a reflection of his true dark skills and he's really the biggest shark of them all! Just kidding Tomas. 😄
  11. My final observations on this - The vids these guys post surely sample some of their typical big winners. If Peter and Caan really are making many multiples of the profit Tomas made, as some believe, then their bigger vids would surely show them staking and making say 5 times the sums in Tomas' vids. They don't. Though their methods differ their levels are, at best, about the same. There are a small number who lose control and experience big losses over time on Betfair. A tiny minority of these unfortunate addicts apparently lose tens of thousands. Along such a journey there will have been many days or even weeks where they had incredible winning runs. My point is proof of one race, day or weeks profit has absolutely no reliable predictive value in extrapolating what a person might earn over a year. When Tomas first produced his course he could easily have had people believing he was earning an amazing fortune. He would not have had to tell one lie or create one false image. He could simply have posted some of his most impressive wins or P&L's from his best weeks such as Cheltenham and kept his mouth shut. Many newbies would have thought, 'Wow this guy can make a weekly fortune, even 2k in one race! A highly gifted and dedicated trader like him must easily rake in a six figure sum each year. I may never reach his level but if I put in some work surely I can make 25k?' Tomas' honesty showed the reality was he averaged around 25k per year and to replicate that figure you have to be just as good as him. That kind of realisation certainly won't sell as many courses / subscriptions and, for me, that's why Peter, Caan and others 'hide' their long term profits. There's nothing particularly bad or unusual about that as what business ever highlights the cons as actively as the pros? If I ever find actual evidence to the contrary I'll come back here and post a link up with my apologies. I'm expecting many cobwebs to form across this thread 🙂
  12. I agree that Peter's vids are good, his and those by Tomas are they only ones I've found helpful, but I've never seen him make any specific claim about how much profit he makes even by implication. That is, when asked in interviews how much it's possible to make he doesn't state a specific figure. The only pro trader I'm aware of who's posted actual evidence of their long term profit is Tomas. I have the impression that he was a gifted discretionary trader of pre off horses even being courted by the 'geek' of geekstoy because he was such a success. He averaged around 25k per year before reaching the top tier of the premium charge unless I'm mistaken. Is it realistic that Peter's 2019 Betfair profit on horses was 4-6 times greater than Tomas' yearly average given he must pay near the max premium charge, markets have become more efficient, and Betfair has being strongly pushing punters away from the exchange and towards their much more profitable sportsbook? I think that's exactly what Peter & Caan want people to think, that their comfortably making a yearly six figure income from horses on Betfair because that fuels newbies dreams of 'easy' money. Perhaps I'm naive but I'd be amazed if they're making anything like that these days. They both seem likeable and smart guys and I've no doubt that their both top pro traders with Peter in particular almost certainly one of the biggest overall earners in Betfair's history but the proof of their yearly earnings is conspicuous by it's absence for obvious reasons in my opinion. If anyone can link me to any credible proof of their annual profits from say 2015 on, and they really are making six figure Betfair profits from horses, I'll happily post an apology to them on this thread.
  13. I think I still have a lot to learn about the realities of sports trading CPFitness but if Peter's bank is 250k then what's a realistic return per annum on that these days given increased efficiency, the Premium Charge, and that liquidity on horse racing plateaued years ago? I assume there are similarities with financial trading and the most famous fund managers like Soros and Buffet typically average up to 20% return though they have had some exceptionally successful years along the way. If Peter replicates their success that's 50k. Considering he must now pay a whopping Premium Charge and some of his overall earnings will have been supplemented by winnings on other sports the question is how much profit per year does he actually make on trading horse racing? I'm sure like all big traders he pumps big money through the markets but unless I see actual evidence to the contrary I'll believe the answer is a much more modest figure than that imagined by the enthusiastic newbies who watch his Youtube win videos with dollar signs in their eyes.
  14. I think it's possible for perhaps the one in a thousand who have a very high inherent aptitude for pattern recognition and combine that with an obsessive dedication over years to build the necessary skills. Tomas earned over £250k in 10 years so he's proven it can be done. The market has gradually become more efficient and the very rare big earners will be hit with the premium charge but despite this I'm confident there are still a small number of manual traders who can earn a living from pre off horses, Covid-19 aside. However I suspect many who follow the likes of Peter Webb and Caan Berry are labouring under a delusion that these guys are raking in a fortune. Caan has implied he earns £100k+ per year even showing a week's P&L of 2K+. The fact that he only showed one week suggests to me he picked out an exceptionally good week and earns no where near £100k per year. Peter can't be making much from Betangel for obvious reasons, the large majority lose money so won't buy an ongoing subscription. I don't doubt these guys are pro traders but bar Tomas, I've never seen one of them show their lifetime Betfair profit. It would take them 5 minutes out of the hours they spend making youtube videos so I conclude they don't want people seeing how much they're really making per annum because their selling products based on peoples get rich quick fantasies and it's not in their financial interests to shatter that illusion.
  15. zitlor

    Greyhounds – Don’t trade past post time!

    Be very careful with greyhounds at the moment - 16th March. I've noticed with the last couple of days some races are being suspended very early up to 40-50 secs before the official time for no apparent reason. I haven't seen this happen regularly for a long time so I'm guessing someone may be out sick, a new guy is being trained and he's very trigger happy.
  16. zitlor

    Greyhounds – Don’t trade past post time!

    Thanks for sharing this cautionary tale @Jay28. I play it safe and never open a position in greyhounds with under 20 secs remaining and I always close before Betfair's official post time. It means I miss opportunities but after several months trading the hounds having started as a complete novice I've managed to avoid getting caught in play so far though of course I've luckily escaped a few times by a whisker.
  17. zitlor

    6.7.20. Screen Recording

    I'll also add that I've been recording with the free software Flashback Express for the last few months and I've found it produces a high quality video.
  18. zitlor

    pre race results

    Congrats on an excellent week @smallplayer especially considering it's the hardest time of year to trade the horses. Even on the couple of weaker days you had you broke even which is a very good sign. I think you can expect to be making quiet a bit more per week this summer as you'll have months more worth of experience and the market will be at it's most amenable then.
  19. zitlor

    Newbie's 6th month

    This may be my final entry in this blog series as I'm unsure if I'm still a newbie at this stage though I've only yet completed 1/4 of my learn to trade journey as I gave myself 2 years at the beginning. It's taken 6 months to reach an overall profit from trading. That is I've now won back the small amount I lost in the first 2 months the few times I ventured out of training mode, some minor expenses, and the lifetime subscription to Geekstoy which I opted to pay for from the start.
  20. zitlor

    Greetings from Russia

    Congratulations on becoming successful so quickly @shreik. Very few do I'd imagine.
  21. zitlor

    Hello I'm shug

    Hi @shugmac777. I'm not sure which markets you're trading but I found zeroing in on low liquidity markets like greyhounds, US & Australia horse racing etc., easier when I started last summer. I'm still largely focusing on them now but hope to gradually transition to UK horse racing from March onwards as that's where the money is. Due to seasonality this is the hardest time of year for UK horse racing. As far as I'm aware even the pros experience much smaller profits around now so it's not a great period time for a beginner to learn in. I found US horse racing particularly helpful in getting me to break even. I was then able to move on to greyhounds. You must be very patient as US horse racing moves very slowly but it helped me understand how the market might move without feeling so panicky due to so many fast moves up and down. There can be big spikes down in that market in summer but they don't seem to be happening at all right now so it's even 'safer' for a newbie. Whatever market you choose to focus on remember the reality of a performance industry like trading is the large majority of people will lose money in the long term so it takes a huge commitment to getting in screen time before anyone might reasonably expect to make real money at this. Unless of course you're a genius with pattern recognition 😀. I've given myself 2 years to learn.
  22. zitlor

    Hello I'm shug

    Welcome. I'm no expert but I've been at this for a few months and I'm able to achieve small but steady profits that add up over time. If you post up any questions or observations that I feel I can comment on in a useful way then I'll do so.
  23. zitlor

    A kind of Intro and thank you to Thomas

    I've been at this for a few months now and have come to the conclusion what Tomas provides here for free is fantastic in that it gives you ideas and points you in the right direction but in order to realise the subtle differences between when to apply these strategies and when not to it takes countless hours of screen time. There's simply no short cut. I think most will give up well before they get there but those who do make it to earning a professional level income, say at least the annual minimum UK wage, are perhaps 1 in 500 to 1 in a 1000 on Betfair. Closer to 1 in a 1000 I'd imagine. I've no idea if I have the inherent pattern recognition ability to succeed but I've given myself 2 years and I'm going to give it my best shot. Good luck and if you feel like posting a regular blog of your progress I'll read it.
  24. zitlor

    Newbie's 6th month

    Thanks @Tomas I started with realistic expectations so I'm very pleased with the slow but steady progress I've made. I've no doubt I'll need the full 2 years I gave myself from the start if I'm ever to progress onto making real money in the big boys playground of UK horse racing. Time will tell but I've really enjoyed it thus far so I'm happy to patiently wait and see what happens.
  25. zitlor

    Daily profit plan

    I don't set any targets. I simply try to be as consistent as I can. If I have a winning streak I don't increase my stakes because I know my results will regress back to my mean in time and likewise if I have a losing streak I don't decrease my stakes because again I expect the results will go back to my average wins to losses ratio.