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David

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David last won the day on November 18 2018

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  1. David

    2018 November 17th Saturday

    Generally on Saturdays, it is best to back the favourites at a high point (because all the mugs keep wanting to back them). Did so on every trade today. But in the 14.45, I backed at 3.25, which was the highest point it had ever been. Then a massive sudden lay spike, when I had to lay at 3.7 (which is a 9 tick loss). I did back again twice at 3.65 to gain 3 ticks profit. Made that 40p again in the next 2 races. So, recovered from a losing position, and turned it into a profitable day.
  2. David

    Interesting Betfair Graphs

    Yes, too crazy. I don't normally bother to check results, but decided to today. The favourite in that race was the winner, so why people were laying so heavily is a mystery. If I remember correctly, thousands were being matched on the lay side within seconds.
  3. David

    2018 November 16th Friday

    Not many races at this time of the year. 2 only had 3 runners, which I don't like dealing with. Managed a profit today on 3 races by backing the favourites at a high point. Could have had more, but 5 offered bets didn't match, as the market moved too quickly.
  4. David

    Football Data for Trading

    I have read that it is difficult to learn the pre race horse markets. But what is more difficult is to teach others how to become profitable. If you have the time available, it is worth the effort. Otherwise how will you know whether you will succeed or not? Good luck with either football or horses.
  5. David

    2018 November 15th Thursday

    Another big losing day. Didn't do much in the first few races, 2p down, I can tolerate that. But then the huge losses arrive again. In the 16.10, the favourite was getting backed down to 3.6 then reversing and drifting up to 3.75 or 3.8 It was doing this for several times. So, I thought the bottom of the range was determined at 3.6 When I decided to lay at 3.6, the market suddenly crashes down, and I took a 9 tick loss. When it neared the crossover, it slowed down. I layed at 3.1 losing 2 ticks (just as well because it steamed well below the 3.0 crossover). I layed twice at 2.86 gaining 4 ticks over the 2 trades. But overall, losing 74p. The 16.30 was good for me. Backing at 4.1 for 2 ticks. Backing again at 4.5 for 4 ticks. A 57p profit on a race is a good result with £5 stakes. Then a huge loss in the 17.00 The favourite drifted up to 2.48 and didn't want to go any further. I backed at 2.48 for 1 tick. It dropped a few ticks. When it reached 2.46 I backed again, suddenly losing 5 ticks. It came back down again, before drifting to 2.54 and not wanting to drift further. So I back. Within a couple of seconds, it shot up to 2.74, so took a 10 tick loss. Why this happened is beyond my understanding. Tried another trade losing 2 ticks (ok, fair enough). The market dropped to 2.42 and hesitated. Often 2.4 acts as the bottom of the range. This time, I layed. The market suddenly crashed down, making me lose 6 ticks. So, whatever I tried, everything was going wrong. Lost 22 ticks altogether on this race for a massive loss of £1.02 This has put me well into the red for November (although I'm glad I'm only using £5 stakes, so my losses are only a few pence a day, but still frustrated at the constant losing). Even if I make a profit tomorrow, I know I won't get back the current months loss. I am a failure trader.
  6. David

    2018 November 14th Wednesday

    I realise why I lost money yesterday. Last week was unusual in that the high stake traders weren't around, so there was more value to back the favourites. I followed on by backing on Tuesday and lost. The traders were back this week in force. I know that by the way the markets behave. Today, I lost 8p but regard it as successful. In the first race, I had a big loss of £1 The odds started out at 4.5 it drifted to 5.0 then hesitated (because not many people are willing to lay a favourite at high odds, due to the liability), and so I backed at 5.0 lost 3 ticks. Tried another 3 trades. Lost 10 ticks altogether in this race. Couldn't believe that no one was backing at that stage. The trends in subsequent races behaved in their predictable way. Made a mixture of back and lay entries, depending on where the market was at the time. 8 wins later, I brought the initial loss from £1 down to 8p. So it is not so bad. Could have been profitable because in the 15.20 at Ayr, I missed the opportunity to lay at 3.55 for 4 ticks (I estimate a profit of 28p). The strike rate of 8 out 9 is more pleasing to me than losing 8p.
  7. David

    Interesting Betfair Graphs

    In the 17.00 at Kempton, there was a clear favourite. Odds were 3.2 at 10 mins. As it was an obvious favourite, I thought it might drift for a little bit before getting heavily backed. Glad I didn't touch it, as it drifted massively from 2.64 to 7.4 I find these types of markets baffling. Surely enough people would think there is value to back at 4.1 or 6.2? But no.
  8. David

    Interesting Betfair Graphs

    @Tomas It was in the 17.15 at Chelmsford on Tuesday. I don't look at Irish races, because I find them too volatile. There was enough money in this race to trade with. I was looking to back it, but missed the opportunity, when the market crashed down. Maybe a bookmaker. When the exchange odds were around 3.0, bookies prices would be about 2.9 or worse. Laying punters bets at 2.9 and backing several £000 at 3.5 to lock in a profit? Could have layed at the correction, but I was still in shock about the crash down. The time was at 4 mins to the off. I have noticed that between 4 and 5 minutes, the favourite often gets backed at that stage. I am certainly wary of laying favourites in any race at that particular time.
  9. David

    Interesting Betfair Graphs

    How can you predict that this will happen? The favourite drifted from 3.0 to 3.5 Then all of a sudden, a huge back spike made the market crash down to 2.64
  10. David

    2018 November 13th Tuesday

    After starting well, lost November's profits today. Before 3pm, it was better to back the favourites at the top of the range; was doing well as in profit by 39p. In the 15.10 again I backed the favourite at the top. But the 3rd suddenly crashed down heavily (no indication that this would happen at all). When that happens, the favourite will drift sharply. Took a 5 tick loss. Tried another 4 trades, losing another tick altogether. Similar happened in the 15.40 when I lost 54p. People mention to cut the losses, but it is difficult when the market suddenly move 5 ticks against you. I rarely get 5 ticks for me, so the wins are always being outweighed by the losses.
  11. David

    2018 November 9th Friday

    Haven't done much trading this week, as have been watching snooker. I did trade last Friday, and won 5 out 5 races: Traded this Friday as well. Found it difficult to read the markets, but managed a good profitable trade in 1 race: So, it covers some of the loss that I made in October. One thing that I have noticed since the clocks have gone back, is that the favourites aren't initially drifting as much as they did in the summer. So, sometimes I decide to back instead of my preference to laying in the summer (still got to choose when the high or low points are). So, not only have you got to learn how the markets behave, but how they behave in different seasons; no wonder trading is hard to master!
  12. David

    Trading Price Boosts

    Interesting. I'm not in from my morning job until 12.30 but understand what you are doing. Some bookies deliberately enhance the odds of a particular horse (price boosts can be on football as well). They are gambling on the hope that you will be backing a losing horse, i.e. giving the bookie your back stake. This means that the back odds in the bookie is higher than the lay odds in the exchange. Same principle as trading; back high and lay low. What @ThisIsFine is doing, is when william hill announces the price boost, we know that thousands of matched bettors will be laying that particular horse. Laying will make the price drift, so there is value to lay early, wait for the (almost certain) sharp drift to happen, then back at higher odds. If you are confident in laying at 4.5 before backing at 5.5, that will be a very nice swing trade. I'm not sure exactly, but I estimate about £20 profit on a £100 trading stake.
  13. David

    Afternoon gents

    Hello @Gareth Welcome to the forum. I did try lay the draw and a bit of the under 2.5 goals market. Lost money; I think you need to research which teams are likely to score goals. Why I lost money on my last football trade was that the underdog scored first. The draw odds actually went down (because everyone thinks that the favourite will equalise). The favourite did equalise, and I had to trade out for a loss. That was over a year ago, and I have given up (as I have no interest in football enough to do the research). Prefer trying to master the horses.
  14. David

    ThisIsFine

    Agreed. I came from another trading course (won't mention the name). But it gave the impression that within a couple weeks practice, you would be earning £50 per day on the pre race markets. I know 6 other people who tried the same course, and not one made money from the strategy that was shown. @Tomas Yes Tomas, I do matched betting. I've made over £30,000 from the bookies in the past 3 years. Restricted by most bookies now (as they don't tolerate winners for long). I am always willing to offer advice, because whatever you do in life, be it getting a decent paid job, trading, or any other way to make money is never an easy task. Money is a scarce resource, and one must think "why would anyone just hand it to you?".
  15. David

    2018 October 29th Monday

    Easier said than done. There are actually 2 ways; cut the losses but also make the winnings bigger too. With the trade that went terrible, I placed several trades which most lost. If I had just taken the 1 loss before moving on to the next race, I might have made a small profit for the day instead.
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