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Tomas

6.5. Scalping

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There are two fundamental strategies on horse racing – Scalping and Swing. You can either choose one or combine them. Whatever is best for you. I’ve found that people tend to use one strategy more because it resonates with their personality and character. I’m a scalper most of the time. Over the years, I’ve also learned to use swings in the market when I see an opportunity for a good swing trade.

Scalping is a constant fight for a better price between robots, bookmakers, traders, drunks, gamblers, occasional bettors and price manipulators (and probably many others). Basically, we all create a pool of money with our bets and every participant in this market wants to transfer as much money from this pool to his or her account. That’s just how markets work and I believe it’s fair to make this statement. Trading is a zero sum game. As I’ve said – for every successful trader, there must be others who pay for his profits. Be prepared that sometimes the market is pure madness and everyone will try to get your money.

6.5.1. What is Scalping?

It’s a technique where you use very small price movements to gain a profit. This is usually done in a matter of seconds and is repeated many times. The market constantly fluctuates and you need to learn how to 1) Read these fluctuations, 2) Jump into the market and 3) Get out with a profit in a short period of time. My scalping style is when my trade doesn’t take more than let’s say 15-20 seconds. It’s very quick. During that time, I try to make a profit, scratch or take a small loss.

Markets are like two rams constantly butting heads. There’s a Back and Lay side of the market, which are represented by these two rams. For a few seconds, the Back ram can be stronger and thus drive the price down. When the Back ram loses its strength, the Lay ram starts hitting harder and the price goes up. This is the way markets constantly move and you need to jump on the back of the right ram the majority of the time. Of course, it’s impossible to be right all the time – we just need to be right most of the time.

6.5.2. Crowd

Which one of these rams is the right one is something that most people can’t recognize and that’s where my advice comes in – don’t be like the others. In general, most people tend to get their opinions from other people and this is how a crowd is created. However, a crowd does not behave rationally – people in a crowd just do what the other people are doing, they don’t think rationally about their actions.

Let me explain. I’ve been studying crowd behaviour for a long time and there’s a good book called ‘The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind’ from Gustav Le Bon. In this book, he basically says that the crowd is quite stupid compared to people who stand out from the crowd and have their own opinions and judgements. And that’s what you need to do – stand out from the crowd and start forming your own opinions. It may take a while because today’s society is educated to follow patterns given by politicians, celebrities, friends or whoever – anything except forming their own opinions. Yes, most people are part of the crowd and they don’t even realize it.

Maybe you’re asking how this relates to trading. I know you want make money...

But let me stress this point again – it’s really important to start forming your own opinions in the market and not be part of the crowd. You need to stand out from the crowd and listen to your own inner voice, not just follow the lead of others. When translated into Betfair terms – do not blindly Back if everyone is Backing. Form your own opinion first. Remember – most people are losing money on Betfair, so you obviously don’t want to do the exact same thing as them. Right?

You have to see markets as two crowds, (or two rams if you wish). Crowds are ‘dumb money’ and you have to watch them in order to use their power to step in at the right moment on the opposite side of the crowd – before the crowd realizes it. Then wait until the crowd changes its mind. When the price starts going the other way, take the profit. In the long-term, crowds lose money. Those who form their own opinions take the profit.

Forming your own opinions in a quickly changing market can take some time to learn. Basically, you just need to watch the market for hours, days, and weeks to get experience. Then you will get to a point where you finally see some logic in it. I’ve written a special chapter about the many different techniques I use when trading UK horses. I would recommend you choose one and focus on learning how to spot this specific situation in the market. Then you can add another technique, etc. In this way, you’ll develop your own trading style.

But let’s get back to the crowd...

market.png

You need to be the man with the telephone

This is how I’ve been able to survive on Betfair for the last decade – to not be caught up in the crowd most of the time. That’s also why I was able to make long term profits even without knowing anything about horse racing or understanding the English language during my first few years on Betfair. I’m not a native English speaker, so it was very hard for me to learn about horse racing because all info was in English. I had to find my own path. That’s also the reason my Geeks Toy settings are very simple – all I need is to see the crowd, e.g. the Back & Lay numbers in Ladder interface that it represents.

I try to see the markets as two separate crowds and identify their behaviour & mood. If there is a predisposition for the crowd to not be as smart as the person watching it, you should understand why my thinking is valid. There are many technical factors in Geeks Toy that help you identify crowd behaviour and I’ll show them to you later in the book. But for now, work with the information I’ve provided. This is the shift in mindset I had to make in order to understand the underlying fundamentals of each market. I believe this can be applied to any market – stocks, futures, Forex, etc. It’s much more important to understand the real power of crowds than relying on technical indicators like graphs, weight of money, etc. All of these ‘indicators’ only belatedly show the mood of the crowd. People are the real power that moves all markets. In order to understand markets, you first need to understand people.

At this point, I believe we should stop talking the talk and start walking the walk. So let’s start with some real market scalping videos. Each video has its own chapter with a detailed description at the end of the course. In each video, there may be several trading techniques used and I link to all of them at the end of each video chapter.

For example – the first video is called ‘Scalping & Scale Out £39+’ because I have used a ‘Scalping’ strategy with a ‘Scale Out’ technique and earned £39 in this video. When you click on it, you’ll go to the chapter where there’s a YouTube link with a detailed description of what I do in the video and why. From there, I also link to the detailed description of the ‘Scale Out’ technique. A list of videos where I had used this technique is at the end of the ‘Scale Out’ technique description.

6.5.3. Videos

  1. Scalping & Scale Out £39+ 

  2. Scalping Doncaster £128+ 

  3. Scalping Doncaster £45+ 

  4. Scalping £59+ 

  5. Scalping Flat Market £64+ 

  6. Swing, Scale Out, Scalp £36+ 

  7. Scalping Doncaster £80+ 

  8. Price Bands £65+ 

 

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