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silverico

letting the race go in running

Question

hi guys only just discovered this site and can i say for a free service it is fantastic

from a bank of £500 i can regularly make a profit of between 5 to 10% a day but throw a lot of my profit away by letting 1 or 2 races go inplay

What methods do people use to stop doing this as its really hurting my profits as the inevitable always happens

thanks in advance and great website by the way

Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Wolv 16th Jul : 1m1f Nov Stks 16-Jul-18 21:10 16-Jul-18 21:18 -45.46
Horse Racing / Wind 16th Jul : 1m Hcap 16-Jul-18 20:50 16-Jul-18 20:52 3.23
Horse Racing / Killar 16th Jul : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 16-Jul-18 20:30 16-Jul-18 20:35 3.34
Horse Racing / Wolv 16th Jul : 7f Hcap 16-Jul-18 20:10 16-Jul-18 20:13 4.01
Horse Racing / Wolv 16th Jul : 1m4f Claim Stks 16-Jul-18 19:40 16-Jul-18 19:43 1.16
Horse Racing / Killar 16th Jul : 1m3f Hcap 16-Jul-18 19:30 16-Jul-18 19:33 2.73
Horse Racing / Wind 16th Jul : 5f Hcap 16-Jul-18 19:20 16-Jul-18 19:21 0.00
Horse Racing / Killar 16th Jul : 1m3f Hcap 16-Jul-18 19:00 16-Jul-18 19:04 7.20
Horse Racing / Wolv 16th Jul : 6f Nov Stks 16-Jul-18 18:40 16-Jul-18 18:43 -0.81
Horse Racing / Wolv 16th Jul : 6f Nov Stks 16-Jul-18 18:10 16-Jul-18 18:14 5.83
Horse Racing / Killar 16th Jul : 1m Stks 16-Jul-18 18:00 16-Jul-18 18:04 5.18
Horse Racing / Wind 16th Jul : 1m2f Hcap 16-Jul-18 17:50 16-Jul-18 17:53 0.01
Horse Racing / Ripon 16th Jul : 1m4f Hcap 16-Jul-18 17:25 16-Jul-18 17:29 5.34
Horse Racing / Ayr 16th Jul : 1m Hcap 16-Jul-18 16:40 16-Jul-18 16:43 0.00
Horse Racing / Ayr 16th Jul : 1m Hcap 16-Jul-18 16:05 16-Jul-18 16:09 1.39
Horse Racing / Ripon 16th Jul : 6f Hcap 16-Jul-18 15:50 16-Jul-18 15:52 8.46
Horse Racing / Ayr 16th Jul : 7f Hcap 16-Jul-18 15:35 16-Jul-18 15:37 5.49
Horse Racing / Ripon 16th Jul : 5f Hcap 16-Jul-18 15:20 16-Jul-18 15:21 -1.72
Horse Racing / Ayr 16th Jul : 1m2f Hcap 16-Jul-18 15:05 16-Jul-18 15:08 0.00
Horse Racing / Ripon 16th Jul : 5f Nursery 16-Jul-18 14:45 16-Jul-18 14:54 5.01
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Hi @silverico, if letting the race going in-play is your wrong habit and you want to remove it, there is no other way than improving your discipline. Many traders have experienced a loss because of letting the race go in-running. My advice is to set up some tools which may help you but the most important thing is just to stop when the race is about to start.

Sound alerts:

You can set your personal sound alerts in GT, I know that custom alerts may help to some people. For example: record your own voice saying "I have finished the trade and I don't do in-play" or something like that (in present time). Then, set this audio alert to like 20 seconds before the race starts. The reason is simple - this sound will play in your mind. And your mind does learn new things by repeating them. So, it may be helpful to just listen to such an order because you will be always reminded.

Betfair Exposure Limit:

This may be a good addition to your overall money management. If you have some set of rules regarding your maximum liability in the market, this tool wont allow you to exceed the limit.

And here is another reply from Twitter:


“Sports Trading Exposed” is now FREE & OPEN SOURCE! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written.

“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

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Ok......its not easy at first! If you decide to go inplay, first try and check if the horse you have backed is a Front runner, hold-up or sits at the Back. a couple of web sites will give you this information....Now if its a Front runner it should go down in price after it has travelled half way through the race and its the same with the Back runner he will drift out if he is still at the Back half way through the race.....so really you are trying to see how the race develops, however, the TRADERS at the race course are 5 seconds in front of you!!! what you see on TV is not live!! Its 5 seconds behind. The way i do it is to LOCK in a STOP LOSS or Lock in a Profit, if i decide to go on play. Its better to lose a little than lose the Full trade. Below are a Few horses that will go at least 20% less than their starting ODDS.

17 Jul 2018 18:50 Worcester 2m7f Hcap Hrd Eureu du Boulay
 
12.5 14.0 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 20:10 Thirsk 1m Hcap Admiral Rooke
 
3.80 3.85 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 20:10 Thirsk 1m Hcap Jackpot Royale
 
5.6 6.0 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 21:00 Killarney 2m6f Nov Chs Robin Des Foret
 
1.85 1.92 TBA
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Cheers guys it’s definetly a psychological thing as I’d rather go in play than take say a £5 loss and hope i can hedge green completely crazy I know

is there not a setting on geeks toy which hedges u out as soon as the race goes inplay I’m sure this would help me a lot 

 

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Set trades to take sp if not matched pre race. If you have loads of open trades that have no existing position then you may need to be selective by trade rather than have it as your default setting.

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21 hours ago, silverico said:

but throw a lot of my profit away by letting 1 or 2 races go inplay

The answer is to take the loss. Discipline is one of the hardest skills to learn in trading.

One time, I took a £50 lay bet inplay (hoping to hedge for a couple of ticks profit, instead of the pre-race loss). The horse only went on to win, and I lost £300.
I've done this 3 times, losing about £400 altogether. It is a quick way to the poor house.

It is all part of the learning process. Even the top traders who earn a living have probably made this mistake at some stage.

I quickly added up the first page of your results, and it showed a profit of £55.85 You did well to get that far. Even if you take the odd £5.85 as a loss, you would have been £50 up (which is good for an afternoons trading).

If you can regularly make 5% to 10%, then you have nothing to worry about with the small losses.

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Cheers David that’s exactly my point I’ve got an edge I know what most of the markets are going to do but cant seem to take a small red when I need to, time to read Trading in the zone again 👀👍

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4 hours ago, silverico said:

is there not a setting on geeks toy which hedges u out as soon as the race goes inplay I’m sure this would help me a lot 

No, there is no such a thing. But the SP (Starting Price) idea mentioned by @getintheir is a good manual solution imho.

1 hour ago, silverico said:

Cheers David that’s exactly my point I’ve got an edge I know what most of the markets are going to do but cant seem to take a small red when I need to, time to read Trading in the zone again 👀👍

If you know what to do, just start doing it. Practice and gradual improvement of your skills is the key. Gathering data and seeing your own equity may be also helpful to watch your progress. For me, seeing the growing curve always kept me motivated.

 


“Sports Trading Exposed” is now FREE & OPEN SOURCE! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written.

“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

Click to read it now!

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On 7/17/2018 at 9:13 PM, silverico said:

time to read Trading in the zone again 👀👍

I've read that book, and another that was similar. Didn't learn a thing from them.
The trouble is, one might know the theory but putting it into reality is hard. Must practice more.

Nice to read that you have an edge. You must think, if you could control your losses, then your edge will give you the long term profit.

The pain of losing big amounts might sink in one day.

Once you take a bet inplay, you are bordering on gambling territory. Because how do you know what is going to happen?
A horse that you lay might shoot off into the lead, or the horse you back gets left behind. Both scenarios would put you in a huge red position, when in hindsight you could have taken a small red pre-race instead. You must ask yourself, is it worth the risk?

Maybe put a post it note on your screen which states "DO NOT GO INPLAY!!"

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I'm a big fan of using take SP or XSP on Betdaq as  it offers some protection against the exchange going down.

If you use Bet Angel, there is a servant available on their forums that will automatically hedge up (profit or loss) before the market turns in play.

Some good advice from people in this thread about not going in play - it's a tough nut to crack but you will get there.


 

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On 7/17/2018 at 1:09 PM, Mark Edwards said:

Ok......its not easy at first! If you decide to go inplay, first try and check if the horse you have backed is a Front runner, hold-up or sits at the Back. a couple of web sites will give you this information....Now if its a Front runner it should go down in price after it has travelled half way through the race and its the same with the Back runner he will drift out if he is still at the Back half way through the race.....so really you are trying to see how the race develops, however, the TRADERS at the race course are 5 seconds in front of you!!! what you see on TV is not live!! Its 5 seconds behind. The way i do it is to LOCK in a STOP LOSS or Lock in a Profit, if i decide to go on play. Its better to lose a little than lose the Full trade. Below are a Few horses that will go at least 20% less than their starting ODDS.

17 Jul 2018 18:50 Worcester 2m7f Hcap Hrd Eureu du Boulay
 
12.5 14.0 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 20:10 Thirsk 1m Hcap Admiral Rooke
 
3.80 3.85 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 20:10 Thirsk 1m Hcap Jackpot Royale
 
5.6 6.0 TBA 
17 Jul 2018 21:00 Killarney 2m6f Nov Chs Robin Des Foret
 
1.85 1.92 TBA

I thought I'd gently bump this thread to address the above.

Unless you have a lot of experience in trading in play or race reading, I'd strongly recommend not basing decisions based on the fact that a horse is a front runner etc.

For example, if you have a race where there are 6 runners and 2 are front runners and 1 is prominent and the 2 front runners challenge each other, the price won't go down until the latter stages of the race and then you run the risk of being caught out.

Conversely, if the horse is a held up type, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will drift - especially if the market knows this - very often a held up horse will will stay within 2 or 3 ticks of it's starting price because the shrewd players know that the horse is likely to win.

The other consideration is that we don't know whether or not the run style will change today - plenty of horses have done 2 runs as held up types before being tried out from the front.

If going in play is something you are considering, I'd look at races where the horse has run at least 10 times and you can do extensive research before the race starts i.e. reading the previous form, watching replays, previous in running prices etc.

Also, using a stop loss in play is not a good idea as the prices are so volatile that it can crash through the stop loss before getting matched - the trick is to only use 2% of your trading bank in play so if it does go wrong, it won't take too much to get it back.

If any one is interested, I will try and post up a back to lay trade tomorrow and go through the process I use?

 

 

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@silverico, I think the best way is to decide if you want to be a pre-race trader, in-play trader or both. If you want to be a pre-race trader, the best way to the successful future is to avoid in-play trading completely.

8 hours ago, Chris75 said:

If any one is interested, I will try and post up a back to lay trade tomorrow and go through the process I use?

Yeah, it would be great to create a new topic about your process in this forum and then post a link here.


“Sports Trading Exposed” is now FREE & OPEN SOURCE! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written.

“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

Click to read it now!

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I like to think that markets react to new information rather than an event playing out as expected. As much as I hate to say it sometimes I do wonder if this applies to horse racing inplay ! I would be interested to follow the new topic to see if it generates any ideas for me 👍.

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trading can bring out in us the most irrational behaviour ie knowing going in running takes profits but still continuing to do it ,i think your either not able to take a controlled loss as the race is getting near to start time or you have FOMO fear of missing out that you got nothing.either one can ruin us . you can have all the reasons in the world not to do it but if the urge comes and you cant intercept it it will take over and you will let it go in play FACT.talking from experience by the way..so the work you need to put in is " when the situation arises that usually makes you go in play you try to spot the urge and watch and intercept it ,put the mouse down is a great way actually count 3-2-1 as your putting the mouse down and congratulate yourself on it every time you do it.we have to remember trading stimulates a thing in your brain called the cocaine brain ( the same thing cocaine stimulates )and some people feel this very strong hence the urge to gamble/self sabotage themselves and all he good work they have put in.its a strong habit that will keep trying to come back but with enough persistence of spotting it then putting the mouse down after exiting the pre race it will diminish..i found this helped me a lot its an ebbok about emotions in trading 

file:///C:/Users/User/Documents/Emotion%20Free%20Trading%20Book.pdf

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