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Chris75

Back to Lay Trading - An Introduction

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Following on from the "Letting The Race Go In Running" thread, I thought I'd share my process that I use to identify B2L trades.

Firstly, a disclaimer: I've only been doing this since April 2017 and I am by no means the finished article. That said, I've been fortunate enough to have been given some good advice and I hope that my experiences can give some of you some ideas for pursuing your own back to lay trades.

The most important bit of advice I can give you is to only use 2% of your trading bank on any one trade - if that means only using £2 stakes, so be it.

Also, if you've never traded B2L's before, start slowly and focus on one trade per day - the critical factor is being diligent in your research and executing the trade correctly. If you can't find an opportunity, don't trade. Too often we focus on making money when,  in reality, you should focus on protecting what you have.

I use the following resources:

TimeForm - sign up for free at their site and you can access their in running prices. They also have a free race of the day which gives far more details including in play running styles etc.
ProForm Race Guides - if you have a funded Betdaq account (minimum £10) you can access these guides for free and they have lots of useful information. There are also various videos on YouTube showing you how to get the best out of the guides.
Patternform - really useful and free site - they have a ton of information on here and I'd encourage you to read through their excellent guides.
Bet365 Racing Archive - I use this site to watch replays of the horses I am interested in

Racing Post - I like their in running comments

The Process:

The first thing I do is log onto Timeform to see what their free race is - today it is Ascot at 3.40pm - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and in their notes, we can see that:

Individual Price Hint : Cracksman traded at more than 10 times BSP and 2 times BSP when winning on 2 of its last 5 starts: Salouen traded at 10% or less of BSP twice, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 4 of its last 5 starts.

I then go over to Betfair to see how the market looks - in the case of the above, Cracksman is trading at 3.7 and Salouen is trading at 36.

Generally, I prefer to target horses that are priced over 4.0 because anything under this price needs to almost go onto win for it's price to trade lower whereas the higher priced horses can reach the lower prices if they are travelling well - in the case of Salouen, back in Epsom at the start of June, the horse traded from 60.97 into 1.21.

I then go over to ProForm to see what their race guides say and we can see that the following horses have traded at least 50% lower on 70% of the previous runs (see picture)

Cracksman, Crystal Ocean, Desert Encounter, Poets Word, Salouen and Rostropovich.

Currently, as of 11.30am the prices on the horses are:

Cracksman 3.7
Crystal Ocean 3.65
Desert Encounter  130.0

Poets Word 3.7

Salouen 36

Rostropovich 27

Looking at the graphs for each of these runners on Betfair, I can see that they are all fairly steady with the exception of Desert Encounter who is very volatile!

Going back to Timeform, I note that Rostropovich traded at 48 before coming into 2.0 on the last trip out at the Curragh - this could be a positive.

Whilst there is no draw bias here, ProForm guides have a handy pace map / draw bias and it would suggest that best placed horses are Crystal Ocean, Cracksman and Salouen,

I know from my research on Pattenform that all three of these runners can travel well on the going and distance so my next port of call is to watch some replays.

The trade:

Having now watched some replays, my thinking is that the winner will most likely be Crystal Ocean or Cracksman and whilst the obvious route would be to trade on these runners, the fact the prices are quite short, I feel that Salouen may be the better trade.

The reason being, is that we know that Salouen can trade lower from a high starting price and we also know they travel well – Cracksman narrowly won when they met previously. And given the price is 36 (at time of writing) it should easily hit 50% in running.

Provided that the price doesn’t go above 40 and the horse isn’t playing up in the last 10 minutes of the race, my trade will be a B2L on Salouen with a view to entering 10 seconds before the start and exiting 50% lower – the replays confirm that the horse likes to get to the lead and the jockey on board today, Silvestre De Sousa knows the animal.

It may also be that the price on Salouen will come in during the last 10 mins as well if other people fancy it.

I hope that this post has been useful but I must stress I’ve barely scratched the surface on this complex subject!

I will update this post after the race has finished.



 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Ascot 3.40pm ProForm Screenshot.jpg

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> Join our real-time trading chat on WowApp

It was a great race to watch in the end. I kept an eye on the prices and you did predict the likely front runners. Whilst there was some fair movement below BSP I get the feeling the grade of the race possibly meant that the prices held firm for longer and at times leading up (possibly fast fractions) went against the price of the leaders. Thanks for sharing your process. 

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Thanks for the kind words, Getintheir.

One of the biggest areas I've struggled with is accepting losses and 12 months ago I'd have been really angry but I've learnt that with horse racing, it's so unpredictable. A quick scan of the official Betfair forum suggests that a lot of money was traded on Crystal Ocean who as we know lost.

Someone will be having a worse day than me!

 

 

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