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Back to Lay Selections by Chris

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I've had a look through the card and I'm going to post a Back to Lay trade - if you get involved, please remember to stake sensibly and remember that things change very quickly in running etc!

Housekeeping out of the way, here is the selection:

Ascot 1.05pm El Astronaute

What I like about this horse is that it's consistent. Last time out at Goodwood went from 8.32 to 1.35 in running and with Pat Cosgrave on board today, I'm expecting a decent run. Of the previous 5 runs - including the one at Goodwood, has traded at 10% or less of BSP twice, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 4 of its last 5 starts (From Timeform)

Has won 4 times and placed 5 times from 18 runs plus also won at the distance which is a positive. Drawn in stall 12 and likely to run prominently is a another plus factor. Of slight concern are Gracious John, Watchable and Glamourous but good speed from El Astronaute should overcome that.

In terms of a trade, I'm going to be cautious and look for a 30% reduction from the start price.

Edited by Tomas
I changed the topic name from "Back to Lay Selection for Saturday 11th August 2018" to "Back to Lay Selections by Chris" because the original topic name is not valid anymore.
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A good result here and went from a BSP of 6.4 to 2.56 in running  so a reduction of 60% so easily hit my 30% target.

In terms of return, I used a £5 stake and got a £2.21 green book - whilst this is a small profit, I am staking based on my bank.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Chris75 said:

I used a £5 stake and got a £2.21 green book

That's a great return. I would love to see some more in the future if you don't mind :)


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Hi Tomas, yes - will do although I am very much a learner so it won't be an instant path to riches.

I've had a look today but nothing of interest.

Chris

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I was fortunate enough to receive some very sound advice when I started trading and that is trade the obvious. Too often, we try to look for opportunities that aren't there and end up losing money. With this in mind, my selection today is:

Ripon 3.25pm Restive Spirit

At the outset,  I need to point out that the current price (2.98 at 11.20am) is slightly shorter than I would like but given the horse's previous runs - including a win at Ripon last month, it's an obvious case. Also, of the four runs the horse has had, it's traded 50% lower on each occasion.

William Haggas is a respected trainer and is in form at the moment and despite the jockey, Ben Curtis, riding Restive Spirit for the first time today, the previous 4 runs were all with different jockeys so I don't that will be an issue. Additionally, got a good draw in stall 4 and is down in class as well.

I'n terms of the trade, I'd like to back over 3.0 if possible and I'm going for a 50% lower in running.

As always, if you play - please stake sensibly and remember we're dealing with four legged animals here so with the best will in the world, we have to accept that things will go base over apex from time to time.

 

 

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A second opportunity has presented itself:

Ayr 4.45pm Redeeming

This horse impressed on the last trip at Ayr going from a BSP of 9.0 and trading as low as 1.08 in running. Got a good draw today and is going to be the likely leader as led on the previous 3 runs. Today's jockey, Jason Hart was onboard on the last trip in Ayr and on the other occasion he has ridden, went off at a BSP of 117 before getting to 13.5 in running.

A large field today with 17 runners but Redeeming has travelled well in other larger fields so don't see that as an issue.

My only concern is from the horse in the next stall, Goninodaethat, who could also challenge for the lead and although the price has drifted like a barge this morning, ProForm have it rated as a well handicapped horse so although it's not won in 22 runs, that might change. Will be watching the price on this horse as currently 50 at 12.45pm but this may come in.

On that basis, I'm going to go for a 30% lower in running on Redeeming who, at the time of writing is currently on Betfair at 12.5

Usual caveats of stake what you can afford if you choose to get involved.

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The outcome of the selections were as follows:

3.25pm Ripon Restive Spirit - horse won the race so 50% target hit

4.45pm Ayr Redeeming - horse had a  BSP of 14 and hit 7.2 in running so the target of 30% was easily hit

 

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43 minutes ago, Chris75 said:

The outcome of the selections were as follows:

3.25pm Ripon Restive Spirit - horse won the race so 50% target hit

4.45pm Ayr Redeeming - horse had a  BSP of 14 and hit 7.2 in running so the target of 30% was easily hit

Great results! I will promote this thread on Twitter if you don't mind :)the more eyeballs, the better for all!


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“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

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Tuesday 14th August 2018

I've had a brief look at the racing for tomorrow and at the moment, I have three potential trades to share but, at this stage, these are not set in stone. I'd like to see how they look tomorrow in terms of what their movements are in the markets.

For the sake of visibility, they are:

Chelmsford City 4.30pm Cowboy Soldier
Thirsk 5.50pm Josiebond
Nottingham 7.05pm Bengali Boys

Once I have an idea of how they look tomorrow, I'll post my thoughts.

 

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Update on the selections from yesterday evening:

Chelmsford City 4.30pm Cowboy Soldier

This horse is priced too low to make it a sensible B2L proposition so I won't be getting involved with that.

The other two look good at the moment but I need to do some more research and watch some replays before confirming they are trades.
 

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I have now dismissed Josiebond in the 5.50pm at Thirsk. She has only run 3 times and ideally, you want to be looking at horses that have a high number of runs behind them. I shortlisted the horse on the basis of a good draw and on 2 or the 3 trips, went 50% lower in running from large prices. However, the going at Thirsk is now soft and good to soft in places which is less than ideal as she has no real experience on that going.

I can confirm that I will be trading Bengali Boys in the 7.05pm at Nottingham. Although not been seen at the track for 59 days, has proved in the past that can perform after a long break - notably winning in July last year on heavy going at Newbury. Also down in class and running at a weigh of 8-11 which is the second lowest weight of career. Whilst it's only a sundry point, both the trainer and jockey have done well at Nottingham. Going to be cautious here and go for a 30% lower than BSP.

I think it's important to be open about your weaknesses in trading as well. In the past, I'd have gone with the 2 horses that I've dismissed because I 'wanted' to prove to myself that I could do this. However, with the amount of racing that we have on, another opportunity will always be available.


Please remember to only stake what you can afford to lose.

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And the results from the day as follows:

In the 7.05pm at Nottingham, Bengali Boys had a BSP of 3.89 and hit 2.56 in running which is 34% lower - whilst it's pleasing my call of 30% was right, it was a bit close for comfort.

Of the two I dismissed; Josiebond actually had a BSP of 43 and hit 12 in running so disappointing to have missed that but never mind. The odds on favourite, Cowboy Soldier, in the 4.30pm at Chelmsford City had a BSP of 1.53 and only hit 1.47 in running, so glad I didn't get involved with that.

Not sure if I will be posting any up for the next couple of days as I have some other commitments.

 

 

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I've had a look at the racing cards today and although I'm going to share a selection, it's not one I'm going to get involved with. This is an important lesson - there is nothing wrong with not taking a trade and as any good trader will tell you, the main objective is to protect your bank at all times.

On initial inspection, Gold Stone in the 5pm at Beverley looked like a potential B2L opportunity. Although only run 5 times in their career, 2 of those were at Beverley and 1 of those races saw a win and the other was a reduction of 88% from start price. The jockey today, Tom Eaves, has been onboard for all those 5 runs and obviously knows the horse. Another positive is that the horse is down in class and also has a decent draw position.

So why am I not going to go with this?

Firstly, the 2 runs at Beverley were over 12 months ago and the previous run on turf this season saw the horse finishing last. Secondly, there are a few other horses that I expect will run well; Qaaraat, Wrenthorpe, Porchy Party and My Little Pony.

Thirdly, and most critically, based on the above and my reading of the form, I am not 100% confident which means I shouldn't be making the trade.

As I've mentioned previously, I'm still very much a novice when it comes to selecting back to lays but something I try hard to do is not take unnecessary risks.

I will update this post later once the race has finished to see what happened.

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I noticed on twitter (I'm not on it as a user) that someone asked the question about return on investment and I'll offer my thoughts.

To make things simple, we'll assume that we are going for a target of 50% lower in each case and not going to use any stop losses in play. This isn't ideal but as I trade on Betdaq and in running liquidity is not as good as Betfair, I assume that I won't be able to get out.

Let's assume that we are going to do 10 trades and we win 5 times and lose 5 times. Using a simple £5 stake, we would be looking at:

-£4.75 for each winning trade i.e. £5 after 5% commission and a total of £23.75 profit for 5 trades
-£5.00 for each losing trade and a total of £25 for losing trades

Overall, we would be down £1.25

Now, let's work on the basis we are right 60% of the time:

+ £28.50 for the 6 winning trades
- £20.00 for the 4 losing trades

Net profit of £8.50

Assuming you were using £5 stakes on the basis of that being 2% of your bank, that would mean you were running a bank of £250 and £8.50 would be a 3.4% profit on your overall bank.

If you managed to do the above each week, by the end of a 10 month period, your bank would have grown to just over £900.00

As you will have seen from my posts, I'm very upfront about the fact I've not been doing this long and I'm well aware there are people out there that know the game better than me. I'm also very aware of my weaknesses and my priority is to become a better trader - I really want to master the craft of trading because I know what is possible.

Hope this post was useful.
 

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Following on from my earlier post:

The selection I dismissed, Gold Stone, actually traded just over 50% in running so a bit disappointed I didn't trade it. That said, it was pleasing to see that my call on the other horses was nearly right, Our Little Pony, Qaaratt and Wrenthorpe all finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively. The other horse, Porchy Party, was a non runner.

 

 

 

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I have identified what I consider to be a good back to lay opportunity for today.

Yarmouth 8pm Enzo's Lad

Although this horse is lightly raced, it is down in class for today and has won here previously with the same jockey, Clifford Lee, onboard. He also has a 3lb claimer today which is another plus along with a reasonable draw position. The animal also has cheekpieces back on today and on the 2 previous occaisions, went on to win once and trade over 50% lower in running which I take as a positive. The only slight concern is the additional weight being carried but the claimer negates that.

I'm going to go for 50% lower in running here.

 

 

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Pleased to report that Enzo's Lad ran a good race here and went off from a BSP of 10.93 and traded at 1.6 in running which is around 85% lower in running so the 50% target was easily hit.

 

 

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I'm mindful that although I've touched on staking, I've not really offered any information about how you can reduce the risk of any B2L trades you do. With that in mind, I'm going to share some details below that I've learnt from other traders. I'm assuming that the reader will be trading on Betfair and ideally, using one of the excellent API's out there.

A closing strategy:

A popular closing strategy is to cover the stake at 30% and then green up at 50% lower. This would be illustrated as:

Back bet of £5 at 4.0

Lay bet of £5 at 2.8

Lay bet of £3 at 2.0

This would then give you a 60% return on investment - this is less than the 100% return you'd get from a B2L by not covering your stake but gives you some protection - provided, of course, you are selecting the right horses.

Other Considerations:

As I've touched on previously, the most important aspect of back to lay trading is to make sure you are staking correctly - I was taught that 2% of my bank is a reasonable amount.

By watching replays and reading the form book, you can get a feel for how your choice runs i.e. is the horse a leader, prominent, mid division of held up? All of these should shape your opinion in terms of how you will trade the race. For example:

You select a horse that has run prominently on it's previous trips and you know from the replays that it stays at the front. It also has good record of trading lower in running. However, for the run today, you notice that the horse isn't at the front in the line up (assuming it's a national hunt race) and the price may be drifting before the off. In this case, if you have no evidence to suggest it can make a good run from the bank you would be well advised to exit the trade.

Conversely, if you are doing a back to lay on a held up horse, you could get some value by waiting until they start as there is a good chance the price will drift due to the nature of the horse being a held up type. This can be confirmed by checking the previous runs and the prices in running. For example, the start price may be 4.0 but starts to drift meaning that if you backed at 4.0, you would be in a world of pain. If, however, you had waited until the first 2 minutes of the race, the price might have gone out to 6.0 and you can then take advantage of the horse being produced late and close at 4.0 in running. Again - you can only do this if you have an idea of how the horse is likely to run.

A really important consideration is how best to use live video and personally, following some excellent advice from an in running trader I respect greatly, I do not use live video when trading. This is because the delay can be anything from 2 seconds to 5 seconds (or more) and on a sprint race,  a race can be finished and the 'live' video will still be running! The advice I was given was to look at the money on the ladders - is there more money on the lay side or the back side? This will give you a clue as to what is happening. I should stress that you will still need to have an opinion about how the race will be run but the movement of money in the market should give you an idea of whether your opinion is right and you can act on that accordingly.

One tool that I find very helpful for in running is the In Play Trader tool on Bet Angel - if you use Bet Angel and want to do in running trading, please educate yourself on how it works. I find it a very useful instrument to gauge what is happening in play.

I have limited experience but I hope that some of my advice can give you some pointers and hopefully reduce the chance of you making the mistakes I've made!


 

 

 

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I've uncovered a possible B2L for later today.

2pm Nottingham Cale Lane

As you will know from my previous posts, I try to avoid horses that haven't run that many races and in this case, Cale Lane has only ran 4 but won last time out at Doncaster. In that run, her in running price didn't really move from the BSP which is a good sign of consistency. On the previous runs, traded over 50% lower on all 3 trips. The downside here is that she's not had any experience on the going today but ProForm suggest that her sire, Mastercraftsman had a reasonable record on the going. To reinforce this, Timeform note that her breeding could suggest that she could be open to improvement.

I've also watched the previous runs and looks to travel well and a quick look at the Betfair market at 11am suggests that her price is stable (no pun intended) so this passes the test.

The trade will be as per the previous post; back just before the off then remove my stake at 30% lower in running and then all being well, being able to green up 50% off start price.

As always, if you choose to play, please stake responsibly.

 

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Outcome of the 2pm at Nottingham - losing trade.

One of my biggest issues in the past has been to go on tilt and 'revenge' trade but today I just closed down my software and made some cheese on toast (which was very nice)

This may sound a bit extreme but I don't mind admitting that in the past, I've won 6 trades in a row, got annoyed by 1 loss and then obliterated my bank by acting foolishly.

What I could have done better:

Firstly, the BSP of 2.5 was too low and I should have taken the small profit I had from pre-race and left it alone.


Secondly, in the videos this morning, I noted that Penny Pot Lane had raced against Cale Lane when the latter won at Doncaster and travelled well - this could have been a signal of a threat.

What I did right:

My initial analysis was good and I staked correctly -  also, on the back of a pre-off trade from the previous race and this race, I didn't lose my full stake.

As mentioned above, I didn't revenge trade and I reminded myself that my other selections have gone well this week. I also said to myself whilst I was making the cheese on toast that it's okay to have losses.


 

 

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Good Morning.

Whilst I don't have any selections so far - I've been looking at the 3.35pm at Newbury and wanted to offer my thoughts.

Firstly, this is a tough race - for me at least - to call. There are a number of really quality horses running today and if I were a betting man (and I'm not, because I'm a trading man) I'd imagine the winner will come from the top 3 in the market. At the time of writing (10.40am) this is Gustav Klimt, Labrisa Breeze and Sir Dancealot.

From a trading perspective, Sir Dancealot traded at more than 10 times BSP twice and 2 times BSP when winning on 3 of its last 5 starts (Courtesy of TimeForm) so if you were that way inclined, you could wait until after the race and get involved then. The average time on this course/distance is around 87 seconds so you could wait to see where the price is after 20 seconds before getting involved.

I initially liked the look of Breton Rock but has drifted in price this morning so have dismissed that for now.

The only angle I can see at the moment is to perhaps lay Gustav Klimt at the current price at 3.25 on the basis that there could be a drift in price before the off and then do a B2L in running trade. My thinking being that the lowest the horse has gone off before is 5.4 and by pushing the price out, backers may get better value.

 

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Not my finest hour and although I wasn't involved, the price on Gustav Klimt came in so got that wrong. And whilst Sir Dancealot was the winner, his price didn't drift.

I am only human, after all!

 

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After a couple of disappointing results from the previous two days, looking to get back in the saddle - so to speak.

3.35pm Pontefract Zain Hana

Although I've gone with Zain Hana here, I'd also given consideration to Miss Bar Beach as well as on paper, she looked like a good proposition as well. Just putting that out there for when Zain Hana has a dire performance and Miss Bar Bearch runs like Pegasus :-) 

Whilst Zain Hana has run few times than Miss Bar Beach, going through the formbook, I'm of the opinion that she is the better choice for a B2L here.  On the last four trips of this going, has won twice and also traded 50% lower on one run and 78% on the other run so is proven to travel well - even when she pulled hard at Newmarket in April, still went lower in running. A sundry point but the trainer is in form and the jockey on board today, Robert Havlin has ridden twice out of the 4 runs I mentioned. Last time out in Nottingham impressed with a solid performance and didn't drift from her BSP indicating a good run. She is also drawn low which is another plus factor.

The only concern here is that she is up in class but is carrying less weight than on previous runs so as far as I am concerned, good opportunity here.

The trading angle will be to cover the stake at 30% lower and green up for 50% lower than BSP.

As always, if you play, stake sensibly.

 

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good thread chris ,i will keep watching your posts,havent been around for a while but i am trading again. i have enjoyed your thread and the explanations.well done with keeping your discipline and not going on tilt .

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