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ThisIsFine

ThisIsFine

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Hi Tomas et al,

 

I wish I had discovered this place before I had lashed out £90 on a course a few days ago.

After a few health issues and hitting 50 years old, next year, it has become obvious that I need to generate some other sources of income, as the stress in my current job is killing me.

I made money in the noughties trading the gold market, using the old CMC markets and IG Index platforms, so I have a decent knowledge of japanese candlesticks and technical analysis.

I stopped financial trading when the markets changed and the algos took over.

I haven't traded in a while so I thought I'd have a look at sports after a long, long time.

Before my gold market trading, I used to arbitrage sportsbooks, when bookies first started online in the 90's.

I have been matched betting since April and with all the gubbings, the road naturally leads to trading.

My initial impression from what I've seen on youtube and what I've read etc, is that this type of scalping is akin to picking up seashells on the beach, whilst waiting for the tsunami to come and totally wipe you out.

So, Tomas' "protect the bank"  yes, yes, yes.

I will read your course in detail a couple of times before I even decide on Betangel or Geeks toy.

Thank you for making it free.

However,  I have to ask the question, is this even worth the time investment for the average Joe?

If the top 0.5% are there because of natural talent then is there any point in the average guy even attempting this?

Markets can be fickle and certain markets suit certain people.

I was decent at gold, but crap at Forex and I have a friend who will only ever trade the DAX.

I can make £1k a month matched betting with a 'little' help, but it's not scalable.

Are the members here making money and have you found it worthy of the time you've invested so far?

 

Thanks in advance,

TiF

 

 

 

 

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> Join our real-time trading chat on WowApp

Hello and welcome to the sportstradingexposed forum ThisIsFine,

to answer your question. Yes, even average Joe can become successful trader in this field. I can see on myself how clueless I was at the begining and where I am now. For some folks this is going to take only months and for some years. It depends on how often you practice. I used to practice 2 hours per day but I did not do it daily. Let's say I had around 6-8 hours practice per week and I was nowhere close to become successful while doing it this little. Now I am watching markets around 4-6 hours per day almost daily and I am becoming pretty confident with what I do in the markets. When did I start? Around november/december 2016 so it is close to 2 years from now. There is fella in our community who I spoke with and he is comfortably making atleast 50€ per day on greyhounds after his sacrificed 8 years of learning the process as he told me. Few other people who I met along the way grabbed this trading stuff more rapidly, one after around 8 months,second one after 14 months and third around 16 months.

It is definively doable if you can spend enought time with practicing and secondly also very important is to never give up.

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Hi Tommy,

Thanks for replying.

8 years is a long time to make £50 a day, when it's taken me 2 months to get to £30 a day by matched betting, as a side gig.

The attractive thing about trading is the scalability, from compounding your bank.

I actually do believe in giving up, if I spend a decent amount of time on something and I'm crap at it it.

My friend is a programmer and is writing software that trades impulse and correction, directional trades on the DAX the the MT4 platform.

One of the reasons that I stopped financials, is because I can't see what he sees in the charts.

He is now actually trading my account through GKFX and went live earlier this month, so we'll see how he goes.

The accounts are linked so that every trade he places is replicated on my account.

So, I could argue that trying to persevere with some something I'm bad at stops me from finding something I'm good at.

6 hours a day at minimum wage is nearly £50.

 Cheers,

TiF

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That example is in low liquid markets ( greyhounds ) so in horse racing is 10x or even more than that + when the guy have good day he is having over 110€ on that low liquid and that is well worth it atleast in my eyes. Money were and still are and will be on horses where you can make his best day profit on single race if you are really good at it. I do not even mention festivals like Cheltenham where PRO trader can make 2000 on single race 🤠

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I read Caan Berry's book and didn't think much of it.

It also took me ages to find a useful Peter Webb video on cold trading order flow.   Ah ha !! lightbulb

It was in the comments to that youtube video that I found Tomas' name.

Yes, totally agree with getting to know the markets.

 

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I've been active in the markets for 30 months now and, like a lot of people, I arrived thinking that it wouldn't be long until I was profitable. How wrong I was!

Here is what I've learnt:

1) Learning to trade the UK/IRISH racing markets (pre off and in running) takes a lot of time. When I started, another full time trader suggested that to truly understand the movements of the pre off market, would take at least three market cycles i.e. sitting through the markets for 3 years.

2) From the professional traders that I've been lucky enough to interact with, it took them between 2 and 8 years to go full time - that is a very rough average of 5 years.

3) Whilst making money is obviously the end goal, a lot of stuff has to happen before that. You need discipline, excellent money management skills, knowledge of the markets, patience, mastery of your emotions, knowledge of the software etc.

4) Big one this: "Your long term profits will be determined by your weakest skill" - I'm not ashamed to say that I have a list that details all the areas I need to improve on.

I'll finish with something that most people seem to forget:

If you look at any professional who is at the top of their game; solicitor, accountant, doctor, dentist, architect, I don't think anyone could dispute that to get to that point, they've put in a lot of hours, perhaps as much as 5 - 7 years. If you consider that a successful horse racing trader could earn upwards of £70,000 why should that learning curve be any different from the professions I've mentioned?

For me, I'm prepared to give it at least another 4 years and in that time, I know I will have traded at least 30,000 more races and, because I do some in running trading, I know my race reading skills will be at a very high level by then. Of course there is no guarantee that I will make it but if I think back to what I knew 30 months ago, I'm certainly heading in the right direction.

Best of luck on your journey,

Chris

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16 hours ago, ThisIsFine said:

My initial impression from what I've seen on youtube and what I've read etc, is that this type of scalping is akin to picking up seashells on the beach, whilst waiting for the tsunami to come and totally wipe you out.

That may be an initial impression, however, full-time scalping is all about avoiding that tsunami and cutting the loss as quickly as possible if it suddenly comes. On the other hand, I understand your point of view that scalping may look like this. And really, it's all about a lot of small profits and from time to time you may have a bigger loss. Scalping doesn't have to fit your personality and style. So, there is another way to go - swing, which is all about waiting for a bigger move in the market and literally using the power of tsunami into your favor. I'm a scalper by nature but from time to time, I do some swing as well. You can read about it here:

16 hours ago, ThisIsFine said:

If the top 0.5% are there because of natural talent then is there any point in the average guy even attempting this?

I believe that anyone can get into that 0.5% and actually - I think it should be a goal of each trader. The other thing - it's not much about a natural talent. It's all about hard work, discipline, self-control and many hours invested into this. You can't earn serious money on a betting exchange without actually spending thousands of hours by watching and actively trading these markets. Every full-time trader was an average guy when he or she started. 

16 hours ago, ThisIsFine said:

I can make £1k a month matched betting with a 'little' help, but it's not scalable.

Trading is much more scalable. See this little intro from each sport:

I know these numbers are real because one of these P&L statements comes from me and I created this video for Geek :D However, I think that matched betting is a great supplement for trading, especially when you start your journey. I think @David does some matched betting as well. If you want, you can share your knowledge about matched betting, I believe that many people would appreciate any advice!

20 minutes ago, Chris75 said:

4) Big one this: "Your long term profits will be determined by your weakest skill"

I couldn't agree more!

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Thank you for your replies.

Some interesting points to debate.

Firstly, I think I'm going to give this until 2020 and if I don't see any improvement or learning, then I will stop and look at something else.

I have another couple of projects that I am working on too, which are running in the background.

If I don't see any improvement in myself and make consistent loses, then there is no way I will be spending 5 years banging my head against a brick wall.

I think in every field, sometimes it's just kinder to give someone a tap on the shoulder and say " you're just not cut out for this".

I have a very specialised engineering job that I have done for nearly 30 years. I hate it, but I am good at it.

Some people call me an expert at work and I hate that. I always correct them and hate that word.

My position is that everything that I have learned and experienced, just lets me appreciate how little I actually know about my field.

When you are young, you don't know that you don't know anything!

 

It took me years after I finished trading gold that I realised, I didn't really know so much and was riding a bull market at the correct time (lucky).

I guess everyone here has read Taleb's 'Fooled by Randomness'.

I spent a lot of time on technical analysis using every indicator going but everything really comes down to price action in the end.

Yes, If support and resistance is similar to financial markets, then swing trading may be the thing. I'll look at both.

I'm totally happy with psychology, bank management etc

This seems like a relatively small group, so this is good.

One thing I have noticed and I wonder if anyone uses, is the exponential odds changes,  on in-running markets?

I'm primarily thinking of the Over/Under 2.5 goals right now and how the prices move from linear to exponential as the time decays.

 

I have an offer from a pro racing trader to go and visit him.

I'll go when I've learned a bit more about these markets and my health is better, maybe next year. 

He is an ex bookie and only trades in running and says that he just knows how the markets work.

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3 hours ago, Chris75 said:

1) Learning to trade the UK/IRISH racing markets (pre off and in running) takes a lot of time. When I started, another full time trader suggested that to truly understand the movements of the pre off market, would take at least three market cycles i.e. sitting through the markets for 3 years.

Agreed. I came from another trading course (won't mention the name). But it gave the impression that within a couple weeks practice, you would be earning £50 per day on the pre race markets. I know 6 other people who tried the same course, and not one made money from the strategy that was shown.

@Tomas Yes Tomas, I do matched betting. I've made over £30,000 from the bookies in the past 3 years. Restricted by most bookies now (as they don't tolerate winners for long).
I am always willing to offer advice, because whatever you do in life, be it getting a decent paid job, trading, or any other way to make money is never an easy task.
Money is a scarce resource, and one must think "why would anyone just hand it to you?".

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On 11/1/2018 at 1:44 PM, ThisIsFine said:

One thing I have noticed and I wonder if anyone uses, is the exponential odds changes,  on in-running markets?

I do some in-play trading on horses from time to time. Very little actually, because there is always someone with a better picture of what is really happening on the racecourse. People who are physically present on the place (whether it is a racecourse or a tennis match) have a big advantage over those who aren't there. I don't say it's impossible to trade in-play, actually it's quite the opposite but it's good to know this because certain strategies that work pre-race / pre-match will not work in-play. 


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“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

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In the last 12 months, I've been lucky enough to get some advice from in running traders:

Firstly, the delay in pictures is not impossible to overcome. Someone who has exceptional race reading skills will be able to profit even with slower pictures.

Secondly, if you know your horses, you should be able to trade their price movements during a race. This works if you have a horse that has proven experience at hurdles / chases and you can trade the price movement in running.

Thirdly (and most importantly) when trading inplay, you need to be staking correctly - no more than 2% of your trading bank i.e. £2 for every £100 and if it goes against you by 30% i.e. 60p, then get out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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