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ThisIsFine

Trading Price Boosts

Question

Does anyone trade price boosts ?

This is the daily William Hill price boost at 14:40 Carlisle

Guess which horse the matched bettors are laying immediately  after the noon flash odds???

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5 hours ago, ThisIsFine said:

My point was not to trade it as a spike, but to trade it at noon because you know it is coming and there will be a lot of lay money for it.

i.e. take a position and close after all the matched bettors have layed off at 12:30

Interesting. I'm not in from my morning job until 12.30 but understand what you are doing.

 

5 hours ago, Tomas said:

I'm not sure how exactly the price boost works with William Hill.

Some bookies deliberately enhance the odds of a particular horse (price boosts can be on football as well).
They are gambling on the hope that you will be backing a losing horse, i.e. giving the bookie your back stake.

This means that the back odds in the bookie is higher than the lay odds in the exchange. Same principle as trading; back high and lay low.
What @ThisIsFine is doing, is when william hill announces the price boost, we know that thousands of matched bettors will be laying that particular horse.
Laying will make the price drift, so there is value to lay early, wait for the (almost certain) sharp drift to happen, then back at higher odds.

If you are confident in laying at 4.5 before backing at 5.5, that will be a very nice swing trade. I'm not sure exactly, but I estimate about £20 profit on a £100 trading stake.

Edited by David
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@ThisIsFine Since there is no answer yet, I will step in with my point. I'm not sure how exactly the price boost works with William Hill. But I'm quite used to using spikes and corrections in the market. Obviously if something goes extremely quickly in some direction (either up or down), it is followed by a correction very often. I've made a separate thread about this market behavior:

 


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Yes, I'm following your course Tomas and read about spikes and corrections yesterday.

My impression so far, is that you are a cold order flow trader , especially when you mentioned not knowing anything about horses at the start of your trading.

IMHO this is the best and what I am most interested in.

One of Peter Webb's better videos was on cold, order flow trading.

However, I think this is exceptionally difficult to master.

I'm still trying to figure out if successful traders actually know why they are good.

Once people start talking about 'getting to know' a market and having a 'feeling' about it, then I have to ask, can you write this down?

If you can't write down a set of rules that you can stick to, then you don't know why you are making decisions and you don't know why you are successful.

I'm interested in the success of your swing trades, but even at this early stage, I think the best place for a part time beginner to begin is scalping horses with flat prices in the ITV races on Saturday.

 Below is todays Will Hill noon boost at 6.0

My point was not to trade it as a spike, but to trade it at noon because you know it is coming and there will be a lot of lay money for it.

i.e. take a position and close after all the matched bettors have layed off at 12:30

 

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