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ThisIsFine

Football Data for Trading

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For all football trading fans.

I have an excel sheet with over 7000 games from last season, that I populated every week with recent form data (  last 8 games).

It was with a view to finding trends in the  OU 2.5 goals market, but I found some other trends that I am testing out this year.

My original intention was to see if there was a mechanical system I could make for the fixed odds market.

Are there any football traders out there who would like to take a look at it and then share with me anything you find?

You can absolutely see trends when you sort on the data columns, but usually the bookie has it priced correctly.

I hadn't thought about it before for trading.

Unfortunately for the fixed odds stuff I'm working on, I need a lot more data, but trading may be the way....

 

TiF

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Hi TiF

Although my main focus is the horses, I've done some very basic dabbling in the OU 2.5 market.

I have Bet Angel and also access to Soccer Mystic and have used this to look for time decay opportunities i.e. backing under 2.5 goals at KO and then closing 15 minutes later because the price comes in and, according to my research, less chance of a goal.

If it's of interest, let me know and happy to forecast some games for you.

Chris

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Hi Chris,

The forecast comes from yourself or Soccer mystic ?

Yes, please predict some games.

I spent a year trying to predict the outcome of 1X2 through research and stats etc and I was only marginally up over the season. All fixed odds.

After that, I decided that I needed to make a system that would spit selections out at me with no human decision making required.

My interest in the OU 2.5 goals market is that you are right or you are wrong, so I thought a 50:50 place was a good point to start at.

I spent another year working out what was actually useful input data and ended up with using the recent form table.

If I knew how to weight the data using an exponential moving average (over time), I would have.

Thanks,

 

TiF

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Hi TiF,

I'll keep an eye on the fixtures and see what I can find. I tend to look at sites like Soccerstats and then model potential prices in Bet Angel on Soccer Mystic.

I should stress that it's very much dabbling that I do - I'm afraid that weighting the data using an exponential moving average is beyond my level of intelligence!

Will see what pops up during the week.

Chris

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Hi Chris,

 

Soccerstats is where I get all my recent form data from too.

I don't even have any trading software yet, so the mystic may sway me...and the ability to make bots.

Exponential Moving Averages is one one the main indicators people use in financial trading.

Out of the hundreds on indicators, they are  one of the first everyone has on a chart.

People use them for directionality and they can sometimes act as support and resistance too.

 

TiF

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TiF

Just to quickly update you - there isn't any Premier League football on till the following weekend, so will come back to you then.

The problem with trying to do something on the lower leagues is that there isn't much data.

Chris

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No probs.

I'm really just scouting around just now to try and see if there is any money in this for me and if it is worth the time and effort.

Yet to be convinced and the fact the only 0.5% make a profit  is not good odds.

I bought a course and I'm not convinced.

Enjoyed Tomas stuff but not sure I would be able to read the markets that well.

Tomas is fast too, so almost looks like playing a video game.

Found a couple of Psychoff interviews that I enjoyed, but in all my reading, the very successful guys seem to have special 'something' that they can't describe.

 

On a theme to what we are talking about, I found this interesting from LeeCal using Bots to trade the U 1.5gls HT market which is more my thing.

 

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hi,i would love a look at the sheet,great work by the way.i may not be able to help much but i do have experience of trading with GOAL PROFITS

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On 11/14/2018 at 3:51 PM, ThisIsFine said:

the very successful guys seem to have special 'something' that they can't describe.

I have never had any special sauce except by those thousands of hours that I invested in trading. In the past, I was teaching people personally. Despite I told them everything I knew, some of them succeeded but most of them failed.


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2 hours ago, Tomas said:

In the past, I was teaching people personally.

I have read that it is difficult to learn the pre race horse markets. But what is more difficult is to teach others how to become profitable.

 

On 11/14/2018 at 2:51 PM, ThisIsFine said:

if it is worth the time and effort

If you have the time available, it is worth the effort. Otherwise how will you know whether you will succeed or not?

Good luck with either football or horses.

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ThisIsFine,

I hope that my post doesn't come across as too harsh but I'm basing it on my own experiences.

It all starts with mindset - you have to believe it is possible and if you don't believe it is possible, then you may as well give up now.

In the last 30 months since I've been doing this seriously, I've been fortunate to connect with a number of full timers and based on what they've told me, it took an average of 4 years to get to the stage where they were able to earn their living at this.

The racing markets are, in my opinion, the toughest to crack but I can tell you from personal experience that if you stick at it, you will start to see patterns.

A coupe of months ago, I managed to get my first 3 figure green - in hindsight, I probably over staked but I did so because I thought that X would happen and it did. The point is, that only happened because of all the hours I put into learning how the markets work.

Going forward, stick with one sport, watch the markets to see how prices move and I promise you that after a while, it will start to make more sense.

 

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No offence taken and happy to talk openly but I think there are many things that lead to success.

If you don't have a natural aptitude for something, then no amount of persevering and trying will make it better.

I actually think it's criminal that we think this modern way.

We have generations of kids who think that if they want it enough and try hard enough, then they will be successful.

Bollocks.

I see it in my own work.  Some people are just naturally good at certain things and no amount of training or experience will make them any more than competent.

Horses for courses, if you pardon the pun.

I'd encourage kids to do the not so glamourous jobs and they'll be set for life

If only 0.5% make money trading, the that is 199 people losing money for every successful guy.

So, I believe in spending the time, learning as much as I can and also knowing when to quit.

I'm also acutely aware of survivorship bias.

Totally agree on getting to know a market and seeing patterns Chris and I'm glad it's coming good for you.

 

Tomas, the guy's with special sauce don't know they've got special sauce !!!

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Allen,

Spreadsheet uploaded in this post.

Everything is based around the recent form table of the last 8 league games played and then further filtered to 4 home and 4 away.

I'll not tell you what all the columns are yet.

You should be able to work out most of them for yourself.

Everything to the right of Col AS is my dicking around and I found some nice patterns, but I need much more data.

Copy the worksheet and sort and filter on the columns before cutting out the rubbish and filtering on a different column.

It's a bit messy, so tidy it up as you see fit.

Some of the patterns actually led me to places I wasn't expecting.

Message me if you find anything tradable.

To continue our discussion above, I've spent  2 years working on this.

1 year on finding ( or what looked like) the correct input data and last year collecting it in real time and looking for patterns.

Yet, I know it might just be BS.

I'm a Process Engineer and have spent a lifetime looking at data and charts.

Very often we find patterns where there are none, because we want to find patterns. 

That's a very human thing.

Chris, I know it's possible and I know how it's possible, but is it possible for me.

I wanted to be a musician, but regardless of all my practice and teaching, it just wasn't there.

I did turn out to be quite a good and specialised engineer though.

Rab,  this is fine.

 

7786 END OF 1718.xlsx

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Hi ThisIsFine,

Been busy with some non trading stuff but should be around at the weekend so will profile some matches for you in Soccer Mystic.

Cheers,

Chris

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Saturday 1st December 2018

Man City v AFC Bournemouth

Over 2.5 goals is currently priced at 1.29 which, given the stats, is hardly surprising - the last 6 head to heads went over 2.5 goals.

However, the current price is, in my opinion, very low and may present an opportunity to lay it just before kick off and trade out 17 minutes later on the basis of there not being a goal and the price rising - effectively, a time decay trade.

According to Soccer Mystic, if there is no goal after 17 minutes, the price should be 1.57 meaning a £10 lay bet would leave us in a green up position of £1.76. If there is a goal, we could hedge the loss for £0.88.

If you have live pictures and are watching the game and feel there could be a goal within the first 17 minutes, then do trade out. If you don't have access to live pictures, then if there are 3 shots on target in the stats, then you might want to consider exiting.

Conversely, if the match gets to 17 mins and it doesn't look like there will be any goals, you could hold on and get more profit but with this, there is a risk that a goal will be scored.

Big Disclaimer: Football trading is not my specialty so please, if you do go in on this trade, stake within your means.




 

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Over their last 4 league home games City have scored 16 goals.

Over their last 4 league away games Bournemouth have scored 8 goals.

I just signed up to BA and I remember Peter Webb from a YT video saying that he derives all his football predictions from goals scored and nothing else.

By the above, we average out at 6 goals a game and 95 mins/6 is a goal every 15.8 mins.

Teams will normally try and keep things tight at the start of a game, so this makes sense.

If I have worked Soccer Mystic correctly , you are saying this trade will win £1.49 or lose £1.09

Thanks,  Rob

 

image.png.8ddca8b4aa93f9142cfa2b8e2ccc667f.png

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Hi Rob,

Yes, that is right.

The other angle could be to wait until the price rises and then back over 2.5 goals.

As I say, football isn't something I've focused on but good to explore other options for the future.

Chris

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