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Ronald

1000 pre-inplay horse racing markets

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Hi Tomas. With cash race it is important to <opt in>. Even if you do it in the last day of promotion betfair will take into account all the points you earned for the cash race period which is usual 30 days. Every customer gets his individual targets depending on previous activity. A nice little bonus.

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Hi Ricardo. Thanks for posting. I would comment your screenshot like this: if you kept your risk under control than this profit is brilliant, otherwise for me this looks like gambling. Your balance of 158.71 is way out proportion with a profit of 133. To me there were 3 ways in which good profit could have been made on that race. 1. Catching big gaps of price inplay: Sire Du Berlais touched 38 in running. 2. Laying the field, this is what I did and like to do when seeing opportunities and not only seeing but hearing too - the commentators are very loud and clear in such cases. Tobefair, Not Many Left, Sire Du Berlais and Cuneo - all traded ~ 1.5 in running. A 50 stake at odd of 1,5 (25risk) would have given a 75 return.  Off course it is possible to lay at odds of 2.5 too for example. In this case you need a minimum of 3 runners to take your stake to be in profit. 3. only if you can read a race properly, and know the form and style of horses. Certain front runners run out of gas in the closing stages. Nevertheless a profit is a profit.

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Hello Ronald, thank you so much for your comments. i was very lucky on this race,  Sire Du Berlais  is the 1st favorite , i watched the race live and i saw he started very poorly, i layed him with $45 liability at odds @6.8 and i backed him with $4stake with odds @100, the horse Won and i traded out with $133 profit. i dont know much about horse racing, yes, the way i trade is risky, i just put $100 in my betfair account and give it a try in  inplay horse racing Cheltenham. sorry my bad English !

Edited by Ricardo Do

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Markets seem to trade better and better as we progress into spring. Some markets exhibits very nice long trends. Had an emotional roller coaster today. It all began nice and smooth. Than an unexpected loss put me back to starting point. It was painful but after a few swears it went away. The next market proved just the opposite. Got in with bigger than usual stakes and cocked it up again. Than the real discipline kicked in and I sharpened my focus and finished the day positive. Why am I sharing this? Well that's is something that every trader encounters now and again. It is happening due to the fact that we are not robots but humans. We do make mistakes and that's ok. What is important though is how we react to that occurring mistake. Mistakes will never end as their mother is always pregnant :). But really that's how we evolve, that's the only way forward. The markets pay you to be disciplined. But even if positive at the end of the day the feeling of those reds still persist. Again that's ok. Eventually it will go away as many other unpleasant things do.

pnl_.PNG

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There was a major outage on betfair API today. Two markets had not been turned inplay and after that all the activity on bf had been suspended. Just for your information. When the API hangs up pre-race then all the bets stand - so if you get caught with a lay or back that's effectively a straight bet. The scenario nr 2: API hangs up while the market is inplay. In this case we are at the mercy of betfair team. They might leave it as it is (most probably) or void all inplay bets. And lastly the scenario nr 3 is when market fails to turn inplay. Usually in these cases bf will void all the bets that are placed after official starting time. It might be that the bets would not be voided. It depends on bf team again. Every time they void bets they lose volume and with that commision/profit.  In comparison with Monday's markets today's and yesterday's were weaker. 

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More and more opportunities in the markets. Better liquidity and longer trends. Today couldn't sleep properly so traded a few Australian races. The afternoon session was very good. Some of the trends were ballistic. It is time to up the stakes especially on Saturdays when the liquidity is at its high.

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The April seems the most volatile month overall. So many out of the blue moves and many poor markets. But on the other side the moves are very deep and strong if a trend is developed. I find it very challenging. Best results so far were from Aintree 4m+ races. Today went aggressive a few times, too risky for my liking but with a bit of luck it paid out in the end. Usually don't do Sundays, but sort of "had to" because of yesterday's positive but poor result. Placed to many lay the field bets. Usually maidens, beginners and novices are the most suitable for that and less so Hcaps. I either placed them too late or on the wrong races. Will have to analyze bet history statement to see where I stand in terms of p&l.

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After yesterday madness aka bank holiday I decided not to trade today and have a day off. But in the end traded 14 markets with a betting volume of 17k in matched bets and a ROI of 0.28. From that data you can work out the approximate pnl by yourself :). Here is a bit unusual screenshot of best trade form yesterday. Unusual because you can't see the favorite as it is scrolled up.  And here is a tip. You can see as well a scratch trade of 4 pounds. On days like these when there are too many races it is a good thing to make a scratch trade in advance in every market. This way you assure youself access to betfair video which as you know requires you to place a minimum 2 pound bet to watch live video. I think this is wrong from their side. Provided that you made a significant betting volume or betting points they should grant you access an hour or so ahead. Or by some other means because the way they do it now is incommoding traders at times. That minimum bet is worth nothing. May be for new users that might be ok but not so ok for loyal customers as they call me. :D

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Had a go on night markets just to see if there are any progress there in terms of liquidity. Used a fixed liability stake of 30 pounds on all of them. Here are the results. Usa markets were easier to trade in comparison to aus which seemed trickier. The profits are there but still small. The biggest losses were due to some big bets entering the markets out of the blue. Traded mostly favorites. Purposely scalping only. On average matched volumes per race were about 10k for usa and slightly bigger for aus. Musw and Wagg are from NSW and have a turnover charge if you trade more that 25 per week.

ausMay3.PNG

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6 hours ago, Ronald said:

Had a go on night markets just to see if there are any progress there in terms of liquidity. Used a fixed liability stake of 30 pounds on all of them. Here are the results. Usa markets were easier to trade in comparison to aus which seemed trickier. The profits are there but still small. The biggest losses were due to some big bets entering the markets out of the blue. Traded mostly favorites. Purposely scalping only. On average matched volumes per race were about 10k for usa and slightly bigger for aus. Musw and Wagg are from NSW and have a turnover charge if you trade more that 25 per week.

ausMay3.PNG

What kind of spreadsheet are you using? Is it available somewhere? I really like it!


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The spreadsheet is a creation of mine that I developed over time. It is kind of a trading journal that I keep that has notes, reminders and thoughts about my activity in the markets. I can go back in time and see what was like to trade same date last year for example. Actuality it has much more detailed columns that being an extract only. Still improving it when in the mood.

As for my initial 1000 markets theme I deviated so much from my initial subject that now this thread is more like a trading blog or journey call it as you wish. Probably the timing wasn't right with all the abandoned races February had. And then a bit of tutoring I did spoiled the general picture as well. So will have to do another one. There's still room for improvement for my discipline.

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A very eventful day. After the sticky API in the afternoon came evening with many races / opportunities. Today is the last day of this month and for me was one of the best so far. Thanks to the trading Gods for keeping api intact. Managed to trade 54 markets. Record being on 11th of May with 55 markets. But the number of bets is the highest of the month. By the way there is a new cash race promotion going on. Will have to use some soccer markets to generate those points which almost doubled this time.

Stratford 19:50 Race Video

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