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Is it still possible to earn a good living from sports trading

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Do we still think it's possible to earn a good living long tern from pre race trading say £30-40k manually trading without diversifying into writing training courses YouTube etc.

Edited by CPFitness
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I think it's possible for perhaps the one in a thousand who have a very high inherent aptitude for pattern recognition and combine that with an obsessive dedication over years to build the necessary skills. Tomas earned over £250k in 10 years so he's proven it can be done.

The market has gradually become more efficient and the very rare big earners will be hit with the premium charge but despite this I'm confident there are still a small number of manual traders who can earn a living from pre off horses, Covid-19 aside. 

However I suspect many who follow the likes of Peter Webb and Caan Berry are labouring under a delusion that these guys are raking in a fortune. Caan has implied he earns £100k+ per year even showing a week's P&L of 2K+. The fact that he only showed one week suggests to me he picked out an exceptionally good week and earns no where near £100k per year. Peter can't be making much from Betangel for obvious reasons, the large majority lose money so won't buy an ongoing subscription.  

I don't doubt these guys are pro traders but bar Tomas, I've never seen one of them show their lifetime Betfair profit. It would take them 5 minutes out of the hours they spend making youtube videos so I conclude they don't want people seeing how much they're really making per annum because their selling products based on peoples get rich quick fantasies and it's not in their financial interests to shatter that illusion. 

 

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I agree Zitlor,

I think that in terms of Peter Webb it's generally thought he is working with a trading bank of 250K and because he w.as one of the first adopters of Betfair trading I can imagine he has made millions of £. He does have a video on Youtube that shows that he has turnover over half a billion in the markets. Like you said the markets are more efficient now but they are not perfect. A guy called Adam Todd who started RacingTraders has started a commission free exchange for Cryptocurrency which is interesting. That being said I am enjoying the trading journey so far.

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20 hours ago, CPFitness said:

it's generally thought he is working with a trading bank of 250K 

I think I still have a lot to learn about the realities of sports trading CPFitness but if Peter's bank is 250k then what's a realistic return per annum on that these days given increased efficiency, the Premium Charge, and that liquidity on horse racing plateaued years ago?

I assume there are similarities with financial trading and the most famous fund managers like Soros and Buffet typically average up to 20% return though they have had some exceptionally successful years along the way. If Peter replicates their success that's 50k. Considering he must now pay a whopping Premium Charge and some of his overall earnings will have been supplemented by winnings on other sports the question is how much profit per year does he actually make on trading horse racing?

I'm sure like all big traders he pumps big money through the markets but unless I see actual evidence to the contrary I'll believe the answer is a much more modest figure than that imagined by the enthusiastic newbies who watch his Youtube win videos with dollar signs in their eyes. 

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perhaps peter doesnt wanna show his profits too much in case his newbie subscribers of betangel realise its him, taking their cash in the markets ..i dunno though

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Possibly smallplayer, 

 

PW is most probably one of the biggest Horse Racing Traders on BF so he probably accounts for quite a large percentage of the liquidity on smaller races 

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i know peter does talk about himself a lot and can come across badly to many but his videos are numerous and helpful if studied in detail. i do believe he is one of the few worth watching on youtube. i dont think he lies about profit either like so many others on there. he has a large following on his forum (advised or trained by him), where many seem to be full time for a long time now. im sure they are profiting also as they have to live off something. some of the profit numbers they toss around are quite large. so i can only assume he does still earn a lot from his trading as even his pupils seem to. i'd guess peter earns 100k - 150k a year without too much trouble.

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1 hour ago, smallplayer said:

i dont think he lies about profit either... i'd guess peter earns 100k - 150k a year without too much trouble.

I agree that Peter's vids are good, his and those by Tomas are they only ones I've found helpful, but I've never seen him make any specific claim about how much profit he makes even by implication. That is, when asked in interviews how much it's possible to make he doesn't state a specific figure. 

The only pro trader I'm aware of who's posted actual evidence of their long term profit is Tomas. I have the impression that he was a gifted discretionary trader of pre off horses even being courted by the 'geek' of geekstoy because he was such a success. He averaged around 25k per year before reaching the top tier of the premium charge unless I'm mistaken.

Is it realistic that Peter's 2019 Betfair profit on horses was 4-6 times greater than Tomas' yearly average given he must pay near the max premium charge, markets have become more efficient, and Betfair has being strongly pushing punters away from the exchange and towards their much more profitable sportsbook?

I think that's exactly what Peter & Caan want people to think, that their comfortably making a yearly six figure income from horses on Betfair because that fuels newbies dreams of 'easy' money. Perhaps I'm naive but I'd be amazed if they're making anything like that these days.

They both seem likeable and smart guys and I've no doubt that their both top pro traders with Peter in particular almost certainly one of the biggest overall earners in Betfair's history but the proof of their yearly earnings is conspicuous by it's absence for obvious reasons in my opinion. 

If anyone can link me to any credible proof of their annual profits from say 2015 on, and they really are making six figure Betfair profits from horses, I'll happily post an apology to them on this thread. 

 

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i'd be delighted if i could ever get to 25k a year from trading. reckon i'd even stop at that and have more free time as its all i need to be comfortable

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My final observations on this - The vids these guys post surely sample some of their typical big winners. If Peter and Caan really are making many multiples of the profit Tomas made, as some believe, then their bigger vids would surely show them staking and making say 5 times the sums in Tomas' vids. They don't. Though their methods differ their levels are, at best, about the same. 

There are a small number who lose control and experience big losses over time on Betfair. A tiny minority of these unfortunate addicts apparently lose tens of thousands. Along such a journey there will have been many days or even weeks where they had incredible winning runs. My point is proof of one race, day or weeks profit has absolutely no reliable predictive value in extrapolating what a person might earn over a year. 

When Tomas first produced his course he could easily have had people believing he was earning an amazing fortune. He would not have had to tell one lie or create one false image. He could simply have posted some of his most impressive wins or P&L's from his best weeks such as Cheltenham and kept his mouth shut. Many newbies would have thought, 'Wow this guy can make a weekly fortune, even 2k in one race!  A highly gifted and dedicated trader like him must easily rake in a six figure sum each year. I may never reach his level but if I put in some work surely I can make 25k?' 

Tomas' honesty showed the reality was he averaged around 25k per year and to replicate that figure you have to be just as good as him. That kind of realisation certainly won't sell as many courses / subscriptions and, for me, that's why Peter, Caan and others 'hide' their long term profits. There's nothing particularly bad or unusual about that as what business ever highlights the cons as actively as the pros?

If I ever find actual evidence to the contrary I'll come back here and post a link up with my apologies. I'm expecting many cobwebs to form across this thread 🙂

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i agree with you about cant berry. i doubt he can trade at all tbh..the others are all useless also ..only out to sell you something.

i 100% believe our own tomas here as his whole demeanour and approach tells us he lives an honest and respectful life. people like him dont make up lies i suspect.

i agree with all you say Ziltor except for the peter webb one. my suspicions point me to believe he is a dark horse about his earnings and would rather play them down in public. i think he makes a good income from bet angel but would not want his struggling clients thinking he is exploiting them in the markets (which he most likely is).

but as you say, we will never know so maybe best to leave this thread at this now.

p.s back to the opening question. yes, i do believe it is possible to make 35 - 40k per year these days but it is a long road full of hardship. i would estimate my own journey to be 50% complete but it has been nothing short of mental torture tbh. 7k pre race horse races traded and only recently before covid did i move into profit.

 

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Thanks for the debate, I like how on this forum we can have a decent conversation and not rubbish people or shoot people down.

 

Thanks alot

CP

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1 hour ago, smallplayer said:

i agree with you about cant berry. i doubt he can trade at all tbh..the others are all useless also ..only out to sell you something.... i 100% believe our own tomas here as his whole demeanour and approach tells us he lives an honest and respectful life. people like him dont make up lies i suspect.

 

I guess we piece together the bits and pieces of info we're given Small player and make our own judgements thereupon, not unlike trading. For the record I'm confident Caan is a profitable pro trader as he's been endorsed by industry insiders like the geek. I just don't believe he makes anything like the 100k+ annual profit from trading that he's implied.

It seems our own Tomas has the Midas touch and has our unshakeable confidence. Perhaps this is a reflection of his true dark skills and he's really the biggest shark of them all!

Just kidding Tomas. 😄

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Thought I'd add a little more here after watching a recent webchat between Peter Webb and Psychoff the most well known successful football trader. Psychoff supported a couple of the points I made above by being surprisingly honest. To paraphrase him, he's found that the markets have continuously changed, every year it's become harder for him to make money and very high liquidity in certain markets has made it a lot harder for him to profit therein as those markets are more efficient as a consequence. 

I'm sure he still makes a good income from footy but clearly not as much as he was once able to. He now provides a paid course. 1k for basic and 2k for advanced. Wow! I know he has a lot of knowledge to impart and it does include group sessions online as he trades live but considering just how small a percentage of traders ever go on to make a long term profit there'll inevitably be a lot of unhappy customers. 

Here's the chat, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OuSGUx4Nv0

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I said if I ever found evidence of Peter or Caan's long term P&L after 2015 I'd come back here and post it. I haven't but in reading about Psychoff today I found an amazing story that seems to have credible P&L shots to support it. 

Heathcote.jpg.63b3109cd7ca9b103ff8022ee0f9ba8f.jpg

It seems over a decade ago a 24 yo Adam Heathcote blogged how he went from 0 to 350k in 2 years trading pre off horses before disappearing from the scene. Some question it's veracity but on balance it seems authentic to me. Here's an archive of his blog http://web.archive.org/web/20160603050357/http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/

Whether anyone could possibly replicate those kind of numbers in today's more efficient markets, before being hit with a 60% premium charge, I don't know but the incredible profits made by this genius make our own Tomas look like the class dunce. 

dunce.jpg.808f5afec72c6db0bf067503c8ba52d1.jpg

 

🤣 🤣 🤣 As ever just kidding Tomas. As I make my 50p's in greyhounds I can only dream of replicating half of what you did. 

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I believe that P&L is real. I read that Adam came away from trading because of premium charge. He now runs a travel company according to linkedin.

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Those are incredible stats but it does seem genuine to me too. Hard to believe he truly walked away from a gold mine that still had a rich seam therein. I know officially he exclusively pursued a new business but it wouldn't surprise me if some Saturday afternoons were spent digging gold with someone else's spade. 

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Possibly, Peter Webb did alude to the fact that he works in same office as some other traders during an interview with Psycoff I don't believe it would be to the scale of Tony Bloom's operation StarLizard but Peter could definitely run a sizeable syndicate. 

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On 5/1/2020 at 1:42 PM, zitlor said:

I think it's possible for perhaps the one in a thousand who have a very high inherent aptitude for pattern recognition and combine that with an obsessive dedication over years to build the necessary skills. Tomas earned over £250k in 10 years so he's proven it can be done.

The market has gradually become more efficient and the very rare big earners will be hit with the premium charge but despite this I'm confident there are still a small number of manual traders who can earn a living from pre off horses, Covid-19 aside. 

However I suspect many who follow the likes of Peter Webb and Caan Berry are labouring under a delusion that these guys are raking in a fortune. Caan has implied he earns £100k+ per year even showing a week's P&L of 2K+. The fact that he only showed one week suggests to me he picked out an exceptionally good week and earns no where near £100k per year. Peter can't be making much from Betangel for obvious reasons, the large majority lose money so won't buy an ongoing subscription.  

I don't doubt these guys are pro traders but bar Tomas, I've never seen one of them show their lifetime Betfair profit. It would take them 5 minutes out of the hours they spend making youtube videos so I conclude they don't want people seeing how much they're really making per annum because their selling products based on peoples get rich quick fantasies and it's not in their financial interests to shatter that illusion. 

 

Hi Zitlor

Do you believe it is the intention of the members on this forum, yourself included, to learn pre race trading successfully with the aid of Tomas's course? if so, & if only a select few people in every thousand can develop the skill after years, are we almost wasting our time trying?

Thanks

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On 6/5/2020 at 5:17 PM, zitlor said:

Those are incredible stats but it does seem genuine to me too. Hard to believe he truly walked away from a gold mine that still had a rich seam therein. I know officially he exclusively pursued a new business but it wouldn't surprise me if some Saturday afternoons were spent digging gold with someone else's spade. 

Check out this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwevwGUTIi4   this is Adam. He apparently attended a BA trading course and picked things up really quickly.

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