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David

Interesting Betfair Graphs

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Saw a really strange graph today. Think it was in the 16.50 at Wolverhampton.
Imagine backing at 33.0 and laying at 4.8! This is all pre-race on the fav by the way.

598e1e47c28c3_Racingstrange110817Layat4.8.PNG.a496e732438d82a2f6680837fb5d8051.PNG

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@David, I have made a special topic for these Betfair graphs because I'm pretty sure we will find much more in the future. Sometimes, I really don't get the logic of these moves or spikes.

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An opportunity for a swing trade. I was waiting for the odds to drop to the crossover at 2.0 but that never happened, so missed it.
Could have layed at 2.06 and backed at 2.74

59933bd155fd4_Racingstrange150817lay2_06.PNG.5c2bea9ff465b727cbe05cf938d54542.PNG

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@David, it depends on many factors. Was there something happening with the horse for example? These drifts happen when the horse is playing up, or if there is a massive gamble on some other horse. I wasn't trading this race so I can't tell you exactly. Do you have some aditional info?


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4 hours ago, Tomas said:

@David, it depends on many factors. Was there something happening with the horse for example? These drifts happen when the horse is playing up, or if there is a massive gamble on some other horse. I wasn't trading this race so I can't tell you exactly. Do you have some aditional info?

It was on Saturday. I didn't trade it, so couldn't see the betfair live video. Wasn't aware of other horses being backed (unless it was on one outside the top 4)

I saw another on Monday as well. The fav had drifted from 2.40 to 5.30 Horses can play up, but I think also it just happens that no one is backing it to win.
Or as you mentioned earlier, sometimes there is just no logic to it.

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A typical steamer pre-race:

599dc6eabca1d_Racing23817layat1_95.PNG.9e57bfce9ba01227fcc416add90c8eca.PNG 
I did trade this one (but maybe not in the way you expect). I actually layed at 1.95 and caught a 1 tick profit. The graph shows a slight kink upwards if you look closely.

When the race went inplay, look what happened!

599dc7a791540_Racing23817inplaywas2ndlastat1stagebutwon!.PNG.d56ff0e55a124b01252bff440ca55278.PNG

This was the favourite, who at one stage was second last. It only came back to win the race!
I think the distance was 1 mile 5 furlongs. So enough time to recover.

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How is this for a drift on an obvious favourite?

59a1e2a82571e_Racingstrange260817obvfav.PNG.12c6be591d37b0ef907d8f96ee383121.PNG

Look what happened on a 2nd favourite in another race. All pre-race, but it acted as if it was inplay:

59a1e362b9e4e_Racingstrange260817b2ndfav.PNG.18a09da49d7f24bd8b16e234c9298559.PNG

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22 hours ago, David said:

59a1e362b9e4e_Racingstrange260817b2ndfav.PNG.18a09da49d7f24bd8b16e234c9298559.PNG

This is a nice overreaction. I wonder what happened, maybe some fat fingers? I don't understand why would someone wanted to Back @3.0 when the market is above @5.0.


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In the 15.20 at Sandown, the heavy obvious fav just kept drifting (I nearly layed it at 2.30 as well).
Then, it just kept steaming. Bettors, will you make up your mind?

59a9c7ca52701_Racingstrange010917.Justkeptdrifting.Thenjustkeptsteaming_Lay2_30..PNG.8dba401c0cbcfbad850c0c3525f5332c.PNG

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Oh, why didn't I lay this horse which was the fav! It drifted from 4.0 to 8.4
I first saw the odds at 5.4 and was expecting it to reverse and head back down to the crossover at 4.0 again (which was the reason why I didn't enter a trade).
Did not expect a massive drift like this. Although it was on an Irish meeting, where the liquidity behaves strange at times.

59c54b9b85db2_Racingstrange220917favdriftfrom4_0to8.4.PNG.a9b1ccb69e5fba0cc6f4181e949998c5.PNG

You could have made 2 lots of big profit on the following one, A massive drift from 2.06 to 3.25, followed by a massive steam down to 2.28

59c54cd5ee3a0_Racingstrange220917favdriftfrom2.06to3.25andbackdownto2_28.PNG.ccce4d14d7ec3b1cba4798b118d20158.PNG

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An appropriate name for a horse: Only Spoofing

59d932b25c4c3_Racingstrange071017Appropriatehorsename.PNG.0d79985b283bcad969bf197fe2eb175d.PNG

@Tomas @Gerome It wasn't one of you who offered a lay bet of 17k at 3.7 in the 17:35 Newmarket on Saturday? ;)
Someone obviously had a spare 50 grand in their account!

It pushed the odds beyond the crossover at 4.1 Should have backed it then, but looked like it was going to drift further.
A missed opportunity for me, but at least I captured an interesting picture:

59d93360dcbb4_Racingstrange071017Hugelayoffer!.PNG.22b2b59d263496b3deee48e8ba08a5ad.PNG

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On 10/7/2017 at 10:15 PM, David said:

@Tomas @Gerome It wasn't one of you who offered a lay bet of 17k at 3.7 in the 17:35 Newmarket on Saturday?

No it wasn't me, I follow my challenge and I don't spoof either :) 


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The bettors sometimes make mountains out of these graphs. The steam was from 9.6 to 4.1!
This was on the 3rd fav (which became the 1st at the off). Don't know why it was backed in the final few minutes, because the horse lost.

59fa0d48decc3_Racingstrange011117.PNG.e2229b6df036c3c04521561057ceb46e.PNG

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Would you believe this is a pre-race graph from horse racing?

graph.JPG.f73a58647ff0e898a5c3190461a27d27.JPG

It was a 2 horse race at Stratford:

59fb3ed59654a_ladderselector.JPG.4b7b3fb976017bfafa97195b852eca5a.JPG

How could someone Back @1.01?!

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On 02/11/2017 at 3:51 PM, Tomas said:

How could someone Back @1.01?!

A mug who thinks odds of 1.01 is a a guaranteed winner?!

I don't understand some of these markets. Why did this obvious fav suddenly drift in the final 3 minutes from 2.3 to 3.45?

5a048ac4d7680_Racingstrange091117.PNG.cb096598d7b3742d9447c5087efe491c.PNG

I was waiting for the price to drop, so I could lay it. It never did, so I left it alone.

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Why do markets behave like this?

A sudden massive drift, then a big steam, then a big drift again.

The race was the 15:20 at Bangor.

5a0c756c6b89a_Racingstrange151117.PNG.146a7d7dd637d8977813533447098290.PNG

I missed 2 downward trends, as it just went too quick.

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On 11/15/2017 at 6:17 PM, David said:

Why do markets behave like this?

I see a lot of panic in the graph. People were like 'oh my God, it's growing, I need to chase the price'. Once they chased it, someone recognized the value and Backed. Then the panic started to push the price down until it was too low and someone found a value in Laying it. Then it found some sort of equilibrium.

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Unbelievable! The 4th horse in this race steamed down from 14.0 to 4.1 to become the new fav!

5a2041e2a67dd_Racingstrange301117.PNG.afa799e484f5d0e2101edd3dcf71e42e.PNG

It placed 3rd, so the original odds (around 7.0 at the start of the main trading activity) were accurate after all.

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Can't remember exactly. I think it was the last race of the day at Limerick.
I was considering laying the 3rd horse at 4.5 Look what happened:

5a453c4366822_Racingstrange281217.PNG.bd5e636102f635404327bcda9d5a2dc8.PNG Such backing activity is unusual on the 3rd (if it was the fav, then maybe understandable)

Glad I didn't enter with a lay bet with this one! 

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