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David

Interesting Betfair Graphs

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Mad bomber?

I backed this horse at 3.5 (successfully taking a 1 tick profit), just before 6k was backed. Crazy or what?

5b071c14058e3_6kbackspike240518.PNG.3429c45d6f3fba79fdb4cc078e46d249.PNG

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> Join our real-time trading chat on WowApp

On Saturdays, big profits are possible if you swing trade.

1775684300_210718Saturday35ticks.PNG.df993692b55a62d50cf1172d708bcec8.PNG

I first loaded this race at 10 minutes before the off.
Backing at 2.86 and laying at 2.16 could have gained 35 ticks!
In reality, 15 ticks was realistic before any reversal happened.

The horse didn't really drift at all until it went inplay.

I didn't trade it, but the secret is to let the profits run, by only placing an exit bet, when it looks like the money in the market is about to reverse.

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How would you trade this favourite? The graph shows the history up until 8 minutes before the off.

994593370_090818Drifter.PNG.03333f3ffdf4856b7f0e467f60092998.PNG

I didn't trade it because I have more success from laying favourites that are below 4.0

I used to think that the market has reached such a high level, that there is value to back it as it is bound to fall.

After this, I can tell you that it drifted further to 4.3 then dropped and hovered around the 4.0/4.1 crossover before drifting again to 4.7 (the second horse became the new favourite).

Some races such as this I don't like, so I leave them alone. Anticipating a back bet at 4.1 would have meant a losing trade.

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I would have been tempted to back after the spike that drifts out to 3.8 in the middle of the timeline as very little volume caused that. However it would probably have been a scratch or small loss. 

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Interesting graph on the 9th August, @David

At the 8 minute mark I would have assumed that there may have been another race in play so would have waited for that to finish before the money came in. Also, I'd have had a look at the volume matched on the other runners to see what the general direction was.

Based on that, I'd have probably layed the horse.

Looking at the result of the race, Affina ended up trading around 38% lower and other race results suggest that the horse is a good B2L opportunity as traded 50% lower on 4 of the previous 7 runs.

 

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Unbelievable how a favourite ends up being the 5th after this drift in the 17.10 Fontwell.

290002331_241018Incredibledrift.PNG.1d18c5cb342fb5e0957d1b5c80135f5c.PNG

Did you all lay at 3.55 and back at 9.6?

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22 hours ago, David said:

Did you all lay at 3.55 and back at 9.6?

Unfortunately, no :D There had to be some big fundamental behind this move.


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How can you predict that this will happen?

The favourite drifted from 3.0 to 3.5 Then all of a sudden, a huge back spike made the market crash down to 2.64

2061176473_131118Tuesday.PNG.3e310bfaecc5c8ed4eb0e01317206325.PNG

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2 hours ago, David said:

How can you predict that this will happen?

I think only a few people can predict such a move (I'm not among them). One of them could be the guy who placed such a bet. From the graph it seems like not much volume was needed to bring the price from 3.50 to 2.75. Was that an Irish race? How many was traded on this horse? Maybe some strong fundamental has changed? Or some mad punter on a different exchange placed his bet and Betfair bots just quickly adjusted to this situation? I really don't know...


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@Tomas It was in the 17.15 at Chelmsford on Tuesday. I don't look at Irish races, because I find them too volatile.
There was enough money in this race to trade with.

I was looking to back it, but missed the opportunity, when the market crashed down.

Maybe a bookmaker. When the exchange odds were around 3.0, bookies prices would be about 2.9 or worse.
Laying punters bets at 2.9 and backing several £000 at 3.5 to lock in a profit?

Could have layed at the correction, but I was still in shock about the crash down.

The time was at 4 mins to the off. I have noticed that between 4 and 5 minutes, the favourite often gets backed at that stage.
I am certainly wary of laying favourites in any race at that particular time.

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In the 17.00 at Kempton, there was a clear favourite. Odds were 3.2 at 10 mins.
As it was an obvious favourite, I thought it might drift for a little bit before getting heavily backed.
Glad I didn't touch it, as it drifted massively from 2.64 to 7.4

1571300522_141118Wednesdayridiculousdrift.PNG.4bf8a421f99089eb3dd690433747eed7.PNG I find these types of markets baffling. Surely enough people would think there is value to back at 4.1 or 6.2? But no.

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On 11/14/2018 at 6:14 PM, David said:

It was in the 17.15 at Chelmsford on Tuesday

To be honest, I never liked this racecourse on Tuesday's. I have always found it too unpredictable.


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That is pretty crazy graph from wednesday David. I would love to see how orders were placed during last 3 minutes. If it was constantly matched or also money built up on lay side which  pushed the price up or huge amount moving upwards to be matched.

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1 hour ago, Tommy said:

That is pretty crazy graph

Yes, too crazy. I don't normally bother to check results, but decided to today.

The favourite in that race was the winner, so why people were laying so heavily is a mystery.

If I remember correctly, thousands were being matched on the lay side within seconds.

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Be careful today. Someone is playing with the market a lot:

spoofer.PNG

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“Sports Trading Exposed” is now FREE & OPEN SOURCE! The most comprehensive, in-depth online sports trading guide ever written.

“After more than 10 years of full-time sports trading that put me in the top 1/2 per cent of the most successful career earners on Betfair, I’m exposing EVERYTHING I’ve learned!  I’ll provide you with all the tools you need to substantially decrease your risk and exponentially maximize your earning potential!”

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